MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

**optiontrader** · 27-04-2005, 06:14 PM

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Optiontrader:
The profit for the third quarter was $6.6M (i.e. the running profit for the year, went from $1.1M to $7.7M) Annualise that and you get a P/E of 8.9. The fourth quarter was probably better yet.

But the real question is where does it go from here and not where was it last year.

Yes tiger, but so far the profit is only 20% above the same period of last year. The fourth was by far the weakest period last year, where the firm lost money! A 50 - 50 chance that the fourth period will be different from last years is not good enough for me at the moment, though it may be a good bet for the future when the fundamentals become clear

**rmbbrave** · 27-04-2005, 10:39 PM

Down 5.3% today.

I held MFT all the way from 140 to 255 for a couple of years but I sold up recently as I reckon it is overpriced.

If we have been unable to agree on it's P/E -somewhere between 70 and 8.9 - what do you think the "market" makes of MFT?

I have a feeling "the market" is uncertain and the SP will fall further.

Sell up PT and take your profits now.

**limegreen** · 27-04-2005, 11:22 PM

quote:Originally posted by optiontrader
The fourth was by far the weakest period last year, where the firm lost money! A 50 - 50 chance that the fourth period will be different from last years is not good enough for me at the moment, though it may be a good bet for the future when the fundamentals become clear

The neat advantage of TA is that you don't have to do much homework. However, with the fundamental stuff, you actually have to read stuff. Thus, when considering that the fourth quarter was by far the weakest period last year, you should perhaps consider that that was because of the major Owens acquisition, which, given they didn't make a major acquisition, is likely to be different this year. And if you wait until the fundamentals become clear, you may have missed the bus (unless there is a real earnings surprise). Just playing devil's avocado with you a little. I'm not buying at the moment, but for very, very different reasons.

**Snow Leopard** · 28-04-2005, 07:07 AM

Oh yea of little faith

**limegreen** · 29-04-2005, 02:39 PM

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Oh yea of little faith

I have some faith in MFT my papery tigery friend, just not in the market's perception of that venerated entity. I know that you're a sometime practionary of the dark chart arts. If it closes through $2.20, there's really not much in the way of redemption. Or do you see it otherwise?[:0]

**Snow Leopard** · 29-04-2005, 03:05 PM

Well, consulting the charts, I have a 200MA at 2.24, and a long term trend line (through lows at 08/12/03 and 25/10/04) at 2.18 as of today. So it is getting a bit tight.

Obviously it is currently in a short term downtrend and needs some serious boost to break that.

Fundamentally speaking, I still think this is pretty solid, but you must be all fed up hearing me go on about that.
The problem really is the general attitude of the market. But then I am not buying either yet.

My current strategy is to hold what I have got, and wait for the full year results in about 4 weeks.
When the share price turns I will buy more to trade short/medium term, I did that successfully at the beginning of the month.

This is rated one of the better buys in the market by analysts, FBU is another.

**limegreen** · 29-04-2005, 03:41 PM

That 200MA kept me in in October

, but I've felt the SP has been too far off that for it to be much use of an indicator of late. However, I'm in agreement, when things start to turn around MFT and FBU will be excellent buying. Always happy to hear your take on fundamentals. You've seen how arse I am at that...