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Thread: MFT

  1. #16
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    I've noted that MFT is a very thinly traded share, so it's thus going to be quite volatile (rather like VTX, another one that periodically gives me the creeps as it bounces). There is a very very short queue of buyers at the moment (3) wanting only about a day's turnover of shares, so it may plunge again if there are willing sellers.

    On a slightly unrelated note, Phaedrus, if you're reading this, I posted a chart (oversize) on the SKX thread, and as an amateur, would be interested in a critique.
    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20094

    cheers.

  2. #17
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    quote:Originally posted by stephen

    PT: how do you see MFT standing up to Toll in the long run? I ask because I have ASX.TOL instead... share the same worries about fuel prices etc but I feel happy that Toll is benefiting from network effects and scale.
    Toll will provide spirited competition in New Zealand for anybody in those parts of the shifting business in which they compete. Remember that Mainfreights business is end to end logistics of domestic/international Less Than Container Load Consignments.

    They are not the only competition for Mainfreight. However the management of Mainfreight know what they are doing, have a plan, but are flexible enough to cope with changed circumstances.
    There is almost certainly room for consolidation in the industry and in time I think that the big will get bigger.

    [Copyright 2004 Paper Tiger Deluded Ramblings UnInc ]
    om mani peme hum

  3. #18
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    Mainfreight will replace Powerco in the NZX 50. What effect will this have on the SP?

    I bought into Ryman just before it joined the NZX 50 and it has nearly doubled in price.

    Does anyone know if institutions HAVE TO buy shares in the NZX 50 or do they TEND TO buy shares in the NZX 50?

    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  4. #19
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    Passive funds that track/invest in the relevent indices will have to buy MFT. Otherwise institutions buy depending upon their belief in the stock.

    I don't think the share price will double in the next year, I guess it will rise iover the coming couple of weeks whilst the funds buy in. Longer term it may now become more heavily traded.

    Disc: Own MFT
    om mani peme hum

  5. #20
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    Today is the day that Mainfreight joins the NZX50, I believe.

    It must also be getting close to the half year results announcement.

    Last chance to buy before the SP goes to new heights. []

    Hopefully

    Maybe [?]
    om mani peme hum

  6. #21
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    Will be interesting to observe the effect of the passive funds, as MFT is a relatively thinly traded stock for one about to join the NZX50. *fingers crossed*

  7. #22
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    Ends the day at 210 with an off market trade at 209.

    Nice
    om mani peme hum

  8. #23
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    18/11/2004
    1:46 pm

    HALFYR: MFT: Mainfreight Half Year Announcement

    MAINFREIGHT LIMITED GROUP

    FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 2004
    (UNAUDITED)

    Net profit within the Mainfreight Group of companies for the first six months
    of the 2005 financial year, excluding the Owens acquisition, has improved to
    $6.559 million, an increase of 78.6%.

    When consolidating the Owens result, net profit declined to $1.145 million.
    This decline saw acquisition costs of $2.035 million and Owens Group losses
    of $3.378 million for the half year.

    Revenues improved, excluding acquisitions and foreign exchange adjustments to
    $290.895 million, an increase of 13.9%. All revenues increased to $431.128
    million, up from $245.145 million in the previous year's corresponding
    period.

    The Owens result included after tax abnormal costs to Mainfreight of $1.983
    million. While trading losses and costs from Group Services were incurred in
    the first half, second half trading is expected to improve significantly as
    business performance and trading conditions improve. Further abnormals are
    likely as Owens position itself for the long term.

    Trading across the balance of the Mainfreight Group is very strong through
    the third quarter and results are expected to further improve throughout the
    second half.

    New, improved, banking arrangements have been confirmed to cater for the
    Owens acquisition.

    Cashflows for the Group were impacted by the Owens Group requirements.
    Excluding Owens, operating cash flows remained positive. Business
    improvement and the divestment process being completed will see cash flows
    return to normal expected levels.

    Divisional Commentary

    New Zealand Domestic
    Performance remains strong in our most profitable division with EBIT
    improving 7.4% to $8.985 million. Revenues are increased 10.5% to $96.686
    million. Third quarter trading is very strong as market growth continues.

    New Zealand International
    Strong performance from Mainfreight International is overshadowed by the
    continuing unsatisfactory performance of Lep International. While improving
    as the third quarter commences, year end results are likely to be affected
    accordingly.

    Australian Domestic
    Strong revenue growth of 41.4% to $35.355 million sees EBIT recover from a
    loss of $3.251 million to a loss of $1.501 million, an improvement of 53.8%.
    This trend continues as third quarter trading further improves our position.
    Quality warehousing and distribution services are retaining and growing the
    customer base with opportunity growth being the highest we have experienced.

    Australian International
    Improvement continues for both operations with revenue growth improving 18.7%
    excluding acquisitions and foreign exchange. EBIT growth continues up 40.2%
    to $2.185 million. A particularly good performance from Lep International
    has assisted. Third quarter trading remains very positive.

    USA and Asia
    Both operations are trading well with CaroTrans in the USA improving EBIT
    contributions by 395%. Port disruption and congestion in the USA may have
    some effect on this growth during the second half, however it is anticipated
    that EBIT returns will remain well ahead of the year previous. Trading
    between all of the International operations is far ahead of any previous year
    and continues to lay a good foundation for further profitable growth long
    term.

    Owens Group
    Significant restructure and divestment has occurred since the majority
    shareholding was acquired in November 2003. During this period significant
    change has taken place including divestments and a more defined strategic
    direction focusing on international and domestic freight forwarding
    complimenting the operations of the Mainfreight Group.

    Abnormal costs have been incurred with Group losses amounting to $3.378
    million to the half year.

    As divested businesses are exited a focus has been taken to ensure long term
    profitability. The New Zealand domestic operations are seeing improved sales
    and margins as the third
    om mani peme hum

  9. #24
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    3cps per share dividend announced later yesterday.
    om mani peme hum

  10. #25
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    Paper Tiger talks to himself some more, would anybody else care to contribute to this thread?

    After rising to 210 on reaching the NZ50 a couple of weeks ago this badly overlooked little gem of a share sauntered down to the $2 mark. However the half year result has been well received by the market and nipped back up again. Today, which admittedly is a market up day sees the price rising to 213.
    It is my firm belief, obviously, that this is a SP on the rise.
    om mani peme hum

  11. #26
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    You sound slightly MIFT at the response tigerish one. When a share saunters down macdunk gallops off much better find a share on a steep trend.
    macdunk

  12. #27
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    quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

    You sound slightly MIFT at the response tigerish one. When a share saunters down macdunk gallops off much better find a share on a steep trend.
    macdunk
    Very Droll

    With a long term hold one must weather the peaks and troughs of gathering a fortune, firm in the belief that you will be richer for it. []
    With a nice little speculative stock then when the tide turns this tiger can run like a leopard.
    I much prefer my SP downs to be a saunter to the steep dive you claim to like my friend
    om mani peme hum

  13. #28
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    I will talk with you Paper Tiger mon.

    I'm also a long term holder of MFT with no immediate intention of selling.

    On the plus side I see mon:
    Nice reliable dividends 6.5cps pa.
    Recent 6 monthly profit up 79% (excluding Owens).
    Just broke through resisitence at around $2.06 and now at all time high.
    Institutional interest (Fisher Funds, Brook)
    In NZX50 and reasonable liquidity.

    On the down side mon:
    Owens making losses and taking longer to make profitable
    Toll lerking around

  14. #29
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    Hi there, papery tig!
    Scamper is a long-term holder of these, entry at 106, so the div is ok, but the div at current entry levels aint much.
    I like this company as a good kiwi people-and-community oriented outfit. works hard to promote from within, big backer of BooksInHomes, etc.
    Thanks for your comments, keep them coming.
    cheers, scamper.

  15. #30
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    It might not be a steep enough trend for Macdunk, but it does, however, seem to be in a trend (actually slightly clearer on a log scale, but I can't paste that due to technical issues). Perhaps Macdunk just didn't notice it when it was still cheap....

    MFT did recently get very close to it's 200 day SMA, but on a log scale, it would have to breach 180 to end the uptrend. The two red lines reflect resistance levels. The line at 1.95 was MFT's previous all-time high in 1997, so MFT has broken out of it's long term trading range, and more recently is showing (hopefully) signs of braking the resistance at around 2.05 of recent times. Apologies for the uselessness of the Volume chart.



    Disc: MFT

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