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  1. #261
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    Just telling it how it is, PT. Basic Dow theory dictates that you can't have an "unequivocal buy" recommendation in the absence of confirmation from volume increase or other indicators as mentioned.

    You guys are hard to please - I get stick for "early" posts and I get stick for "late" posts! I can't win!

    PT's reference to the use of a 5% stoploss is probably tongue-in-cheek, but even that would be better than no exit strategy at all - and of course you can do a lot better than using a simple fixed percentage. Stocks vary tremendously in their volatility and to use the same value stoploss for all is misguided. A more logical approach is to place your stop just beneath recent support. I have written more about this topic here, should anyone be interested.

  2. #262
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    Thanks for drawing attention to your article, Phaedrus.

    It took me many years of FA investing to latch on to the use of Technical Analysis. Even now, I'm no expert and employ only basic TA techniques but the use of stop-losses based on support levels is a must.
    The point was well worth re-visiting!


  3. #263
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    You're a genius, Phaedrus! Time now for even the more conservative of us to take the plunge?

  4. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by COLIN View Post
    You're a genius, Phaedrus! Time now for even the more conservative of us to take the plunge?
    Surely now?

  5. #265
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    Default Chart Update.

    Colin, very conservative investors would not be in this market at all. They would have cashed up last November and would still be out.
    Here is an update of the February chart posted above. You can see that the QStick has now triggered a buy signal as did the OBV trendline break back in February. Do these now constitute the "unequivocal" buy signal that Paper Tiger is demanding? No they don't - here's why.

    The NZ market as a whole is weak and globally this is a time for great caution. Markets might have a long way yet to fall.
    The OBV broke its trendline by just tracking sideways, without any clear rise. Volume is NOT flowing into MFT. All this recent activity has been on low (and falling) volume. Without volume, any short-term rises will remain just that.
    Since peaking in November 2006, MFT has been in a "longterm" downtrend. You can see that it is still making lower highs and lower lows - it is still in a downtrend.

    These are times of opportunity though, and good MFT entries can be made, but these need to be carefully monitored. To treat them as "buy, hold and forget" (unequivocal!) positions would be foolish.

    Fast oscillators can be used for monitoring stocks at times like this. The Williams'%R indicator (inset) is a good example. This oscillator gives a Buy signal when it rises above the green "OverSold" line, and a Sell signal when it breaks below the red "Overbought" level. This indicator would currently have you holding MFT, which, while technically "overbought" is still well clear of triggering a Sell.


  6. #266
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    Default Praise be to Phaedrus!

    Once again you have saved me from myself, and I will stay away from MFT for the time being. Many thanks for the time, effort and patience you display towards those of us who are not au fait with the more advanced concepts involved in charting. (The charts I use were left behind on HMS Endeavour by Joseph Banks!)
    Yes, I wish I had ditched virtually all of my various holdings in November last, but I only offloaded a few that I considered were heading into the abyss. I have paid the price for not being more ruthless at the time but am slowly recovering lost capital - for instance by paying more attention to oils and minerals, both here and in Australia, as well as some "Special Situations." (NZO is an essential play for anyone wanting to enjoy the presence of some light in the darkness of the abyss.)

    On the general question of when we may expect the turnround in the global equity markets to occur, I was encouraged to read the following statements tonight in the latest Annual Report by the fund manager for the Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust (which by the way was founded in 1868 as the world's first ever investment trust, is now one of the largest global growth trusts, has had an increase in dividend every year for the past 37 years, and its NAV total return has beaten the weighted average of its close peer group over one, five, and ten years):
    "Short of a significant further deterioration in the economic fundamentals, we believe that equity markets are looking more attractive than at any time in the last five years. WE PLAN TO INCREASE GEARING THIS YEAR TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECOVERY IN SHARE PRICES WHICH WE EXPECT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF 2008"
    Admittedly there is a proviso there, and the comments are all of little interest to TA investors, but I take more than a little heart from this statement - enough heart to prevent me from ditching the likes of my base longer-term holdings such as FBU, EBO and IFT holdings at this late stage.

  7. #267
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    Default The Song Remains The Same

    Full Year Out
    As a company they just keep on moving.
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 30-05-2008 at 08:32 AM. Reason: little typo
    om mani peme hum

  8. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    Full Year Out
    As a company they just keep on moving.
    Freight Company...Moving...

    Good on ya, PT!
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  9. #269
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    Default Phaedrus, the time has surely come!

    I put in a buy order this morning, at 685, but missed by a mile.
    Phaedrus, you're supposed to give us a pre-warning!

  10. #270
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    Default Quiet here isn't it?

    Latest probably acquisition announced.

    Currently back in favour with the market but at $7.20 a throw (or even $6.85) it is over my buy price.

    Two tigers escape from Auckland Zoo and are crossing Western Springs Gardens, one turns to the other and asks "It is a lovely sunny sunday afternoon, why is it so empty?".
    om mani peme hum

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