MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[The Great Gold Guru]

Bgt today at 530 ... seems a decent discount from 6mths ago. Long term future looks good. Beats paying $7+ !!

[scamper]

i don't understand!! the price was about 650 cps at the end of the full year, since then a 9.5% increase, and today the price is 428 cps...

"Financial result for the six months ended September 2008 (Unaudited)
The Mainfreight Group is pleased to report a net profit (before non-recurring
items) of $17.22 million for the first six months of the 2009 financial year.
This represents a $1.49 million or 9.5% increase when compared to the same
period last year.

"Consolidated sales revenues for the period were $625.02 million compared to
$383.33 million, an increase of 63.0%. Excluding foreign exchange
adjustments, the increase is 59.4%.

"EBITDA performance improved to $35.36 million from the prior year's result of
$28.72 million for the same period; an increase of 23.1%. Excluding foreign
exchange adjustments, the increase is 21.3%.

"Sales revenue improvements were achieved in all businesses, in all countries.
The upturn seen in our operations in the United States of America reflects
the contributions of the newly acquired business of Mainfreight USA, and the
ongoing improvements being achieved by CaroTrans.

"EBITDA results also showed continued strength with improved performances from
our New Zealand Domestic operations, Australian International and all
divisions in the United States.

"Dividend
The Directors of Mainfreight have approved an increase in the interim
dividend from 8.0 cents per share to 8.5 cents per share.

"This dividend will be fully imputed and will be paid on 12 December 2008,
with books closing on 5 December 2008. A supplementary dividend will be paid
to non-resident shareholders."

sooo, the announcement of an increase in div is met with a 0.9% decrease in shareprice, and that is just today, presumable in knowledge of the above news.
or maybe, someone is just desperate for some cash...

[Snow Leopard]

It is a different world now, scamper.

The irrational exuberance that saw $8 for this one a couple of years ago has long gone we now have the fear that things will only get worse.

Also 10% growth is only moderate you know, and below the stated long term target of 15% pa.

In the current climate no price is too low but when those that must have all worried themselves into an early grave and out of the market then the share price will once more start trucking in the same direction as the company.

Till then
regards
Paper Tiger

DISC: MFT Shareholder

[ratkin]

They seemed reasonbly confident about the outlook going forward , well cautious but at least they were not banging on about severe market headwinds

[Hoop]

Having sold last year..bought in and sold during a bear market rally this year all for an overall sell price average of $7.00 .
Now seeing a bigger and better company and still increasing their profits during tough times... and this growth company is at a PE of 10 .........

Temptation too great...bought back in today.

[SueJ]

Does anyone know what MFT dividends for this year are likely to be? They pay out in July and December, but I haven't been able to find any statement about how much in the 19/02/09 results - or on the website, which is flashy but uninformative.

[Snow Leopard]

2007-2008 Half year 8.0cps

2007-2008 Full Year 10.0cps

2008-2009 Half year 8.5cps

2008-2009 Full Year. Your guess is as good as any tigers

regards
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

Having sold last year..bought in and sold during a bear market rally this year all for an overall sell price average of $7.00 .
Now seeing a bigger and better company and still increasing their profits during tough times... and this growth company is at a PE of 10 .........

Temptation too great...bought back in today.

Update for those interested ...bought in gave in to temption at that time of posting av 427c.. market kicked me out for a 7% loss in beginning of Feb 2009 at 400c. (should've sold when MA 30* crossed (470c) but didn't) That 7% loss is less however as I got a 8.5c dividend..so nearer 5% loss.

Bought in again between 380c and 395c (av 394c) at the MA 30* cross in Mid -March so far so good this time around ...up +15.5%.

Hard to not have this quality stock in ones portfolio.


*From chart history The MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.

[Phaedrus]

*From chart history the MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.

It might appear that way for short time periods, Hoop, but over the long haul, such a short ma gives very poor results. Backtesting shareprice data since 1996 tells us that trading MFT using a 30 day ma would have resulted in an average gain of 3.7% pa. It would have triggered 136 entries of which just 31 were profitable. Simply buying and holding over the same period gave an average of 34% profit pa.

It is hard to beat the simple basic TA shown in this chart. You can see that the broken OBV trendline was first to trigger a buy signal, followed a few days later by a break of the well-confirmed trendline. While this signal happened to coincide with a 30ma crossover, note how the new (confirmed) trendline is much closer to the price action and could well give a more timely exit signal because of this.

There is simply nowhere else that any of the 3 confirmed trendlines shown here could have been drawn. It would be easy to add a raft of other indicators, but why bother? Often less is more.



This chart includes today's latest price, but of course the Close may be different.

[Hoop]

[quote=Phaedrus;253690]It might appear that way for short time periods, Hoop, but over the long haul, such a short ma gives very poor results. Backtesting shareprice data since 1996 tells us that trading MFT using a 30 day ma would have resulted in an average gain of 3.7% pa. It would have triggered 136 entries of which just 31 were profitable. Simply buying and holding over the same period gave an average of 34% profit pa.

It is hard to beat the simple basic TA shown in this chart. You can see that the broken OBV trendline was first to trigger a buy signal, followed a few days later by a break of the well-confirmed trendline. While this signal happened to coincide with a 30ma crossover, note how the new (confirmed) trendline is much closer to the price action and could well give a more timely exit signal because of this.

There is simply nowhere else that any of the 3 confirmed trendlines shown here could have been drawn. It would be easy to add a raft of other indicators, but why bother? Often less is more. [quote]

Phaedrus yes agree that 30ma can give poor resuts and too many people rely on it as a good indicator (possibly because it is on nearly every free chart available).
Agree simple can be better on a well behaved chart such as MFT
Surprised about your 30ma figures overall dated back to 1996....yes rather low and a bad indicator used in isolation.

However ....my quote
*From chart history The MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.
my term "history" I used was a 3yr graph ...ok not exactly total history ...but in my defense probably a better worded phase should have been e.g..*From 2006 -2009 chart history The MA 30 indicator seems to work well for this stock.

This is what I observed
I kept it very simple as it was a casual visual glance on a very basic chart.
I have attached that chart with my amateur paint (apologies sadly not an artist) to verify my argument.







green is 30ma cross to buy
Red is 30ma cross to sell
brokeage fees are ignored
prices approximate only..and based on theory..in practice buying and selling at the ideal prices may not be possible.



Lets analyse this 30ma crossovers a little deeper

Theoretical purchase of 1000 shares in May 2006 Orginal outlay $4600

Trade 1 460 - 780 = = +320c/share.......$ 3200 profit +69%
At end of trade 1 capital gone from $4600 to $7800
__________________________________________________ __________________
Line is drawn here .. all trades from below this line happens within a severe Bear Market Cycle Market cycle.
__________________________________________________ ___________________
Purchased 1068 shares outlay $7800 at beginning of Trade 2

Trade 2 730 - 730 = zero........................zero profit
Trade 3 720 - 740 = +20c/share..............$217
Trade 4 700 - 720 = +20c/share..............$229
Trade 5 600 - 610 = +10c/share..............$137
Trade 6 610 - 700 = +90c/share.............$1237
Trade 7 650 - 700 = +50c/share............. $740
Trade 8 400 - 460 = +60c/share.............$1554
Trade 9 370 - ??? With the accumulated money of $11914 the investor has bought 3220 shares at $3.70 Unrealised capital as of now today ($4.59) is $14780

Using 30ma only for the last 3 years on the MFT chart original purchase of 1000 shares outlay $4600
At the end of trade 1 (in a bull market) exit $7800 A tidy profit of 69%

Now the tricky part we enter a Bear market cycle where we see the MFT share price gets a severe hiding from 810c high down to a low 340c. A buy and never sell long term investor takes a hiding ..big time.
The ma30 investor starts off at trade 2 with the $7800 and buys 1068 shares
After each trade the investor reinvests all the gains so its accumulating capital.

At the end of trade 8 that $7800 has turned into $14780... +89% profit during a Bear market cycle on a share with had lost nearly 2/3's of its share value ( 810c high to 340c low).... Damn good eh