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Thread: MFT

  1. #41
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    Gosh, isn't this great! I sure hope the nosebleeds are worth it -- 10% in a week is getting into scarified-rarified territory for me and I 'need to believe' that is it based on solid fundies! [:I] Keep up the analysis, Bright Burner.

    I received a glossy newsletter very recently and it made genuinely good reading about a family- and community-oriented company all pulling together -- young and old, high and low, and their families. Almost too good to be true!! [:0]

    Does anyone know any Mainfreight workers: MacDunk -- what do the tea-ladies have to say?
    Good will to all, Scamper. [:X] [:X]

  2. #42
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    Mainfreight's newsletters are certainly a refreshing change, it's like being part of a local newsletter. vive le difference!!!

  3. #43
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    Hmmmm, 20% plus gain over the previous three months.

    Looking forward what can we expect? A period of consolidation as the share looks to justify it's current price-point or is it going to kick on to $2-50+?

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: BDO MCH MFT MVN RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX
    Unlisted: BRK

  4. #44
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    Finished last week at $2.44.
    Is this the week to hit $2.50[?] (This was my expected price for the Full Year announcement in May 2005)
    Just how fast is Mainfreight improving it's bottom line[?]
    Where will we be at the end of the year[?] $3.00[?] $3.50[?] $4.00[?]

    We just have to wait and see [8D]

    om mani peme hum

  5. #45
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    Answer: Yes, 173 shares bought at 250 [:0].

    So the next question is: can it stay there or go even higher this week[?]
    om mani peme hum

  6. #46
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    What kind of result can we expect come May I wonder? It will need to be a halfway decent one to justify a shareprice above $2-50.

    Whilst on the one hand I am inclined to think that momentum has driven this stock north, on the other I am inclined to think that there must be other drivers at play also.

    For a while I was expecting an announcement with respect Owens, but no sign of one yet. I see in todays sharemarket news that executive options have been exercised. News in the offing or simply common sense at play?

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX
    Unlisted: BRK

  7. #47
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    The 3rd quarter results will be out soon and will give a good indication of the full year, which in itself I do not think will be particularly epic.
    However it will also give a good idea of the current and forward levels of trading activity which will make for better reading and justify the share price.
    At $2-50 the SP is ahead of my expectations but the market seems to love companies with a growth story at the moment. The difference between MFT and some other high P/E companies is that I expect MFT to increase their profit rapidly (next year) and the P/E to come down to sensible levels, whereas for other companies the P/E is based on expectations further ahead.

    With respect to OWN, I will admit that I have seriously considered buying shares in them recently but decided not to on the grounds that
    I would have to high a percentage of the long term portfolio in MFT/OWN. You may note that 90,000 changed hands yesterday at $1-00, someone has been trying to buy for the last few days and seems to have accepted that was what they have to pay. Personally I would expect divvies from OWN starting in the next financial year.
    Once the re-building of OWN has stabilised then it will be in profit and the SP is going to rise along with MFT. I will revisit my decision on buying OWN when I have enough extra cents to buy it and keep the LT portfolio balanced, but may well buy more MFT instead.

    Short term who knows what the market will do with the price, long term it has a way to go up yet.

    Disc: dedicated MFT fan and shareholder. [8D]
    om mani peme hum

  8. #48
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    BID 2.60, ASK 2.63, No sales today!

    I double dare someone to enter an at-market trade...

    Actually scratch that, someone just put their shares on at 2.60. mmmm ah mmmm ah

    Not many sellers, but very hopeful

    2.60 2,142 1
    2.63 1,000 1
    2.65 1,970 2
    3.00 2,000 1
    3.03 10,000 1

  9. #49
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    <center></center>
    <div align="right">snapshot courtesy of www.bigcharts.com</div id="right">

    I hope that MFT have their load securely tied down with a nice low centre of gravity. I also hope that if they have to come down the other side of the incline they are currently climbing that they intend to use engine braking.

    Obviously they are confident that they are driving within their limitations. A good thing, as to my mind their shareprice is at very serious risk of a roll-over if they fail to negotiate the path ahead with great skill.

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX
    Unlisted: BRK

  10. #50
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    The summit keeps getting further away
    om mani peme hum

  11. #51
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    My reading of the chart is that a buy is still indicated (beware, scamper is notoriously dodgy at this -- see AIR thread...):

    Mft trendline still solidly intact for the last six months -- would need a drop below 235 to break it.
    Stochastics good, macd positive.
    Shareprice has broken above top Bollinger band -- good.
    DMI+ and ADX well above DMI-, DMI+ is above ADX -- all good.

    Cautions: ADX has been dropping slightly and is currently flat -- a buy signal is indicated when it rises keeping the DMI+ above it.
    RSI is drifting downward, and W%R is at the overbought position.

    So, yesterday's close is above Jamp's price channel, and it does indeed look at though the summit keeps getting farther away.

    Scamper's holding with all paws. Cheers.

  12. #52
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    Q3 Results:
    [quote]quote:
    MFT
    22/02/2005
    QUARTER

    REL: 0930 HRS Mainfreight Limited

    QUARTER: MFT: Mainfreight Result to December 2004

    MAINFREIGHT LIMITED GROUP

    FINANCIAL RESULT FOR NINE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 2004 (UNAUDITED)

    The Mainfreight Group of companies (inclusive of the consolidated Owens
    Group) is pleased to report a Net Profit after Taxation of $7.7 million for
    the first nine months of the 2005 financial year. This represents a 20%
    increase when compared to the same period last year.

    Revenues increased to $671 million, an increase of 50%. Excluding
    acquisition and foreign exchange movements this increase was 15%.

    Group EBITDA was 35% higher than last year, at $31.1 million, compared to
    $23.1 million. Abnormal costs for the nine months total $3.1 million after
    tax and minority share of which the third quarter abnormals were $1.4 million
    after tax and minority share. All abnormal costs were related to activities
    within the Owens Group.

    Group cash flows were impacted by the retirement of $13.5m Bank Debt and
    unusual working capital requirements for Owens. Now that the Owens'
    divestment process is complete cash flows will directly reflect the
    underlying success of the businesses.

    During the third quarter, trading across the Group was very satisfactory.
    Strong economic activity and performance from our businesses in New Zealand
    and Australia saw most divisions improve over the same period last year.
    Trading indicators into the fourth quarter to date will provide a pleasing
    full year result.

    Divisional Commentary
    New Zealand Domestic
    Revenues have increased 10% year to date with EBIT improving 14% to $16.6
    million. Trading remains steady at the present time, particularly in the
    fast moving consumer goods sector where our profile continues to grow.

    New Zealand International
    International freight activity remains strong. Mainfreight International
    continues its development utilising our presence in Australia, Asia and the
    United States. However EBIT declined to $1.2 million from $1.8 million as a
    direct result of Lep International rebuilding after a disappointing year.

    Australian Domestic
    Revenue growth continues to strengthen, up 44% to $58 million excluding
    foreign exchange movements.

    Year to date EBIT continues its recovery from negative $4.2 million to
    negative $0.3 million. Third quarter EBIT was positive $1.2 million. While
    the fourth quarter is unlikely to produce a similar EBIT due to the
    seasonality of freight movements, further improvement compared to the same
    period last year is expected.

    Australian International
    The strong trading trends from our first half result continue for this
    division. Year to date revenues excluding foreign exchange and acquisitions
    were up 19% to $155 million. EBIT continued it's improvement up 46% to $4.7
    million. Further progress is expected as Mainfreight International continues
    its merger with Owens International Australia. Strong international trading
    conditions have assisted Lep International in recording record profit levels.

    USA and Asia
    CaroTrans continues a solid performance with EBIT increased by $1 million.
    The port disruptions and terminal congestion in the USA having little impact.

    Our Asian interests continue to grow and provide good profitability. We
    anticipate this to continue as we expand in the region.

    Our growth in these countries is increasing our international trade volumes
    and is providing enhanced supply chain opportunities to our customers in New
    Zealand and Australia.

    Owens Group
    With the divestment and restructure changes completed within the first half
    of this year, the quarterly performance provided significant improvement over
    previous periods.

    EBITDA year to date is negative $0.10 million whilst this third quarter
    provided a positive EBITDA contribution of $1.8 million. Some abnormal costs
    will be incurred prior to year end with
    om mani peme hum

  13. #53
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    Immediate comments on this result:

    The NPAT for this quarter is $6.55m (7.7 - 1.15 at Q2). This equates to $26.2m pa and gives a P/E of 9.44 at the closing price yesterday. The not to subtle hint is that there is better to come.

    Owens is now effectively profitable and most of the re-structuring is done.

    Disc: Happy as


    om mani peme hum

  14. #54
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    MMM ah. It seems such a good result was anticipated, so no dramatic action just yet.

    DISC: roll on double money

  15. #55
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    I sat down with the spreadsheet last night, tried to get the recent Mainfreight 3/4 announcement and it to agree. Having done that by making the usual wild assumptions I then projected forward and based on current revenue etc being maintained here is what the spreadsheet says for the future.

    Full year 2004-05
    Operating revenue: $910,894,000
    EBITDA: $48,018,000
    Profit: $17,532,000

    Comment: Seems a little high to me but then I have consistently underestimated the results recently.

    Full year 2005-06
    Operating revenue: $959,532,000
    EBITDA: $67,408,000
    Profit: $30,758,000

    Comment: Remember this based on current levels, I am sure that there is more improvement in profitability to come as well as expansion of revenue next year. Based on this predicted share price for end of 2005 is
    $3.30 (on a forward P/E 10.28) absolute minimum.

    Paper Tiger



    om mani peme hum

  16. #56
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    Is the collapse of Phoenix Freight good news for MFT?

    Who will Phoenix's customers turn to?

    Or, is a collapse in any industry bad news for others in the industry?


    Freight company's collapse leaves 1000 creditors and 150 jobless

    08.03.05


    A national freight company has gone under, leaving at least 150 people without jobs and more than 1000 creditors with no idea when or if they will get paid.

    Liquidator Jeff Meltzer, of Meltzer Mason Heath, said yesterday that Phoenix Freight had gone into voluntary liquidation, leaving 143 staff "technically redundant".

    Auckland was the hardest hit, with 62 jobs lost, followed by Wellington, with 32 staff let go.

    In Christchurch, 26 staff and seven owner-drivers are collectively owed more than $150,000 in arrears.

    Phoenix was set up in Auckland in 1983 on a small scale but grew to have a national network that delivered to 273 New Zealand towns and cities.

    Mr Meltzer said he was appointed by Phoenix on advice from its own lawyer.

    "While I was appointed by shareholders ... my role is to work for the employees and owner-drivers and those that are creditors of the company," he said.

    Phoenix shareholders told Meltzer they had poured money into the business since buying it in October 2003 but the loss of a major customer late last year meant it was no longer feasible to keep the business running.

    Mr Meltzer said he hoped to have a first report to creditors by the end of the week, giving them an indication of how much was owed in total and what percentage they could expect back.

    "That will give indicative figures from the information we've been able to glean from the company records," he said.

    It will be an anxious wait for Christchurch owner-drivers Brian and Joy Terris, who were banking on the earnings for their upcoming retirement.

    For the couple - also business partners in the truck which Mr Terris drives - the liquidation has a sense of deja vu.

    The collapse of Phoenix is the fourth time Mr Terris has been working for a company that went bust, and he has been left out of pocket each time.


    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  17. #57
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    Here is a company that turned 6.6m profit last quarter which gives a current P/E of less than 9.3 (assuming a price of 2.55) if you annualise it. It is being sold down in the market by the general sentiment.

    There is better to come from this company, so I think you should take a good look at it.

    Disc: MFT
    om mani peme hum

  18. #58
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    Oh I am my friend. I'm in the process of topping up some of my core holdings. FBU was the first to get lucky. MFT is certainly on the shopping list.

  19. #59
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    The general descent of the market appears to have stopped for the moment and Mainfreight is sitting on $2.50, which if I understand the TA correctly, is a support level.
    The fundamentals are good so I have been buying today.
    om mani peme hum

  20. #60
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    $2.50 does look like some light support. I'm waiting for the RSI to head north. I'm happy not to top up quite at the bottom, but to make sure that the SP is heading north again as well

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