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  1. #31
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thank you, it is nice to know I am not alone. [:0]

    Owens has been the real fly in the ointment for Mainfreight, they turned out to be a bigger mess than expected. I think they had to sell off more of the Owens bits than was originally intended, but they did not fit and it saved needing to ask us for more money.
    However, the right things are happening, which unfortunately takes time.
    I admit the divvy is not epic, but it is the equivalent of 4.55% gross at 213 a share, and this is a growth stock remember.
    om mani peme hum

  2. #32
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    quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

    Thank you, it is nice to know I am not alone. [:0]

    Owens has been the real fly in the ointment for Mainfreight,
    I dont think it is owens which is the fly in the ointment but TOLL.
    If mft could have got all of owens then it was a very good move for mft, but with toll on the scene doing the "ultimate" merging of mft and owens businesses now becomes quite hard. i personally think that the govt should have stepped in and stopped toll purchasing such a stake.
    basically they did it because:
    1) mft was one of the main drivers to take the monopoly of the movement of longhaul freight off rail
    2) mft was also one of the main drivers to take the monopoly of the unpacking of LCL container freight off the ports
    Toll knows that mft is a "go-ahead" company and its stake in owens is purely a blocking stake. they wont contribute anything to owens. this tatic is ok is there is healthy competition in the market but there is not...just like the airlines the power supply etc etc in this country.
    The other millstone around mft's neck is its aust operations.its been trying there for 12-13 years (hey maybe whs is using mft's theory re aust ..."try,try.try,try...etc,etc,etc)
    I've never owned mft but have considered it right from the ipo...aust has always been the reason why i haven't invested.

    those are my thoughts from sitting on the sideline

  3. #33
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    I have been very happy with MFT.

    I bought in at 1.41 in June 2002 again at 1.41 in Oct 2003 and finally at 1.95 in Oct 2004.

    I think the recent price rise may have something to do with MFT just entering the NZX50. So some instutions have had to start buying it. This may continue for a while longer. Surely FONZ which promises to hold no more than 5% of any one stock will have to buy some MFT.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  4. #34
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    rmbbrave:
    The current share price has to do with the confidence people have of a reasonable end of year result. I do not know whether all the index funds have bought up yet, thinking about it, it is possible that the funds review their waitings end of month or some other future date, volumes have been lower than I would have expected. So we may see further rises in the near term while supply and demand do their ballet, but longer term the SP is about the future prospects of this company.

    madmike:
    I do not want the government stepping in on commercial transactions as a rule, including in this case. I am happy for them to have a strong regulatory role in strategic and monopoly industries. Also I was glad that they saved Air New Zealand.
    It would be easier for Mainfreight if Toll did not have a stake in Owens, but they have effective control. The decisions and the costs remain the same, unfortunately Toll reap some of the benefit.
    If Toll were offering a level of service meeting Mainfreights requirements at a reasonable cost Mainfreight would happily let Toll shift containers round the country for them.

    Toll is aggressive, but so is Mainfreight. Hopefully the shareholders and the country will benefit.
    om mani peme hum

  5. #35
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    215 +2 Buy 215 Sell 219 [^]
    om mani peme hum

  6. #36
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    220 +4 Buy 220 Sell 230 [^][^]

    It's rising so fast I've got a nose bleed.

    220 was my end of year target for Mainfreight, this was on the assumption that it was turning more profit than it has so far acheived. However practically all commentators have been bullish about them for a few months and with Mainfrieght and other players in the logistics sector being very upbeat about the second half year my crystal ball says that $2.50 is the minimum for the end of year announcement, when the profit will be [:I]$10M[:I] plus.



    These are my guessing for you to throw back at me later.[8D]
    om mani peme hum

  7. #37
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    Toll has been reported as lining up another major acquisition.
    Could MFT be the target???

    Happy investing
    Morch

  8. #38
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    quote:Originally posted by Morch

    Toll has been reported as lining up another major acquisition.
    Could MFT be the target???

    Happy investing
    Morch
    only chance if plested retires and wants his $$$$$$$$. he'll be selling a few (people) down the drain if he does offload.

    my wouldn't you like to hear a few stories i could tell!!!???

  9. #39
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    quote:
    my crystal ball says that $2.50 is the minimum for the end of year announcement, when the profit will be $18M plus
    I have amended this, don't how I went wrong.
    But 10M is a definite minimum in my opinion. [Until I amend it again [:I]]
    om mani peme hum

  10. #40
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    The SP has gone from $2.16 to $2.35 since Xmas and we have bids at $2.37 and sellers want $2.60 [:0]

    The third quarter has just ended and I have a suspicion that some know that the future is looking bright. I have had a target price of $2.50 for the end of year announcement (late May) based upon a NPAT for Mainfreight/Owens of $10M (MFT $12M, OWN -$2M), this would give a P/E of 24. I await the quarter results announcement to update the figures.
    Looking forward to the 2005-6 year then I am expecting a significant improvement on the NPAT, the SP to rise well above the market average, but the P/E to come back to something more realistic.

    It's looking good [8D]

    om mani peme hum

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