GXH - Green Cross Health (formerly PHB - Pharmacybrands)

[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... I think on the other thread for some other stock some gurus called a similar shape "inverted bell curve". No idea what the TA implications are, but it sounded positive ...

Attachment 10830

And obviously - there is still the double bottom and now a push through the EMA 100 ...

Just wondering, how the half year financials (due end of November) will look like? I recon the supply shortages this winter (first flue jabs and later on measles jabs running out) and the long cold and wet spring could be seen as indicators that this might have been a busy year for pharmacies and GP's?

[winner69]

Hmm ... I think on the other thread for some other stock some gurus called a similar shape "inverted bell curve". No idea what the TA implications are, but it sounded positive ...

Attachment 10830

And obviously - there is still the double bottom and now a push through the EMA 100 ...

Just wondering, how the half year financials (due end of November) will look like? I recon the supply shortages this winter (first flue jabs and later on measles jabs running out) and the long cold and wet spring could be seen as indicators that this might have been a busy year for pharmacies and GP's?

TA and charting stuff is just seeing things you want to see (or being blind to the obvious) and feeling happy about it

Yep, there is an inverted bell curve somewhere amongst those lines ...and that’s generally good news ...but the inverted bell curve seems to be almost complete ...not so good

[lissica]

I recon the supply shortages this winter (first flue jabs and later on measles jabs running out) and the long cold and wet spring could be seen as indicators that this might have been a busy year for pharmacies and GP's?

Busier increases profit up to a point.

About a third of general practice income is from capitation, and significantly more since the introduction of $19 community services card and free visits to under 14s. The greater the utilisation the lower the profit per patient, and it will be negative if the capitation+copayment is less than the marginal cost of a standard consult. In the case of under 14s, as soon as they present to the doctor, the practice is losing money.

The measles vaccines are a public health %c&! up because they can't get a consistent message across. GP practices spend a large amount of time answering calls from public, for free. It's not a high margin service. Pharmacies should not be allowed to administer MMR, but they are looking for new sources of revenue due to increased competition from Chemist Warehouse/Countdown.

[BlackPeter]

Wow - nearly 1.4 million shares changing hand today for $1.05!

Is this the "2" in "1, 2 and jumping"?

Nice end to the week: finishing with $1.15. This is a clear break over the MA200 (at $1.13).

The ascent continues ... but I lost count of all the positive indicators ...

[winner69]

Nice end to the week: finishing with $1.15. This is a clear break over the MA200 (at $1.13).

The ascent continues ...

Looks like you are onto a winner here Peter

[BlackPeter]

Looks like you are onto a winner here Peter

I guess we will see when they publish the HY numbers end of November ... but so far market seems to be optimistic.

[value_investor]

Current PE of about 10.2 which could mean that the only move is up right?

I'm not so sure, the pharmacy game is pretty homogeneous in product so price sensitivity is a contributing factor. Another CW opened in the CBD, close to a few unichems. I've yet to see the other two sectors (both medical and community health) bring anything meaningful to the bottom line.

As Warren Buffet says, he's looking for 1 foot hurdles to step over and not 7 foot bars. I'd pass for now.

[BlackPeter]

You’ve been itching to buy for a while — now must be the time, esp if a punter has capitulated

Low PE / high yield

Well, yes - good buying below $1, wasn't it?

At this stage it looks like the $1.20 offers some resistance, though.

I suspect markets want to wait for the HY financials (must be due in a week or so).

If we assume GXH to deliver over the next couple of years "average" results (no growth baked in and slightly below the already disappointing 2018), than the current SP looks about right (equals a long term PE of 11.8).

If however this years flu and measles season combined with the new CEO (with retail experience) made a difference, than we should get some growth for free.

Time will tell. As we saw with Abano, it is possible to screw up a health enterprise, but as we saw with Ebos, it is possible to make a killing with them as well. And hey, the industry as a whole clearly should have some tailwinds thanks to the aging population structure.

[Dlownz]

Are gxh paying a divi in Dec or have I missed something?

[percy]

Are gxh paying a divi in Dec or have I missed something?

No divie shown on NZX's site in upcoming divie section.
I sat outside Chemist Warehouse's Rockdale Plaza,Sydney store on Tuesday.Fitted out like a $2 dollar store.Looked dreadful,but they were doing flat out business.Their NZ stores will make trading very difficult for GXH's stores.