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  1. #196
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    You going to have a punt then BlackPeter
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Wow - SP at $1.14 more than 60% down compared to its peak value of $2.90 in May 2016 - and basically a textbook downwards slope since then.

    Attachment 10259

    Average (backward) PE is now 11.3 - still not really cheap, particularly considering that we might move into PE contraction territory.

    On the other hand - for the right competitor they might move into takeover territory. At what time are they cheap enough for a clued up overseas competitor to just buy the lot for a song and show the NZ healthcare system how efficient pharmacies could be operated?

    Assuming they won't run NZ largest pharmacy chain (with some other health ad - ons) into the ground - where is the bottom PE? At 10? At 5? And will these margins continue to shrink given that any newcomer will be cheaper and better. Hard not to.
    You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
    It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
    Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
    Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
    If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
    At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
    My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
    Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
    Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
    Last edited by percy; 13-01-2019 at 12:31 PM.

  3. #198
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
    It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
    Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
    Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
    If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
    At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
    My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
    Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
    Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
    Interesting - EBOS market cap is 20 times the size of GXH. A takeover certainly wouldn't be a problem for them, but than - FMA might intervene ...

    Unfortunate situation for the remaining retail shareholders.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #199
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Interesting - EBOS market cap is 20 times the size of GXH. A takeover certainly wouldn't be a problem for them, but than - FMA might intervene ...

    Unfortunate situation for the remaining retail shareholders.
    Any takeover will probably be one of those dastardly Scheme of Arrangement things with the Independent Directors recommending the deal at some price perceived to be cheap as (a steal in other words)

    You’ll hate that BP so best to avoid getting involved?
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  5. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
    It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
    Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
    Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
    If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
    At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
    My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
    Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
    Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
    Great info Percy, much appreciated.

  6. #201
    Aspiring to be an Awesome Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
    It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
    Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
    Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
    If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
    At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
    My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
    Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
    Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
    Thanks for sharing Percy, great researching, really helpful info

  7. #202
    Legend
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12202567

    Hard to get excited about this stock with this kind of news!

  8. #203
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12202567

    Hard to get excited about this stock with this kind of news!
    NZ Pharmacies quite inefficient compared to many other countries. Where else would they ask a customer during a quiet time to wait 15 min to dispense their prescription medicine?

    About time competitors moving in and creating a bit of excitement ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #204
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    more big competition

    more competition with the arrival of cut-price operator Bargain Chemist

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111308458/cut-price-bargain-chemist-moves-into-central-wellington
    bull

  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    more big competition

    more competition with the arrival of cut-price operator Bargain Chemist

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111308458/cut-price-bargain-chemist-moves-into-central-wellington
    Good points. GXH has some strategic advantages with their acquisition of general practises, real estate and locations.

    Feel it is currently relatively undervalued yet there is additional pressure
    The company is proactive and needs to keep up with the competition or outperform in service and convenience.

    A fast growing market with a bigger population base and more and more out of the box demand for personally solvable health issues.

    Had myself my first over 100% RIO with this one some years ago. Was a great performer. Feel that cycle is coming close to potential again.

  11. #206
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    Good divi stock at this price with a big upswing potential in share price increase.

    Disc. Hold small parcel

  12. #207
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Hmm - don't follow them that close, but why would the appointment of an interim CFO be marked as "price sensitive"?

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334716

    This guy that good - or that bad? He seems to have a history with GFX, which probably is good. However - just wondering - given he worked as well with Evolve Education, maybe he is deemed as too experienced in processing red numbers?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 20-05-2019 at 11:07 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  13. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm - don't follow them that close, but why would the appointment of an interim CFO be marked as "price sensitive"?

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334716

    This guy that good - or that bad? He seems to have a history with GFX, which probably is good. However - just wondering - given he worked as well with Evolve Education, maybe he is deemed as too experienced in processing red numbers?
    Good point BP.

    IMO it is showing credibility and ability to manage the current situation.

    Some reporting due in the next week. Divi date Mid June. Paid towards end of June.

    Let's hope there's some good news in there. Plenty of scope for pharmacy and medical. Online store and home delivery options.

    Disc. Holding small parcel. 👌

  14. #209
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    Default GXH overview NZX

    Company info

    Spike in price probably attributed to results and pre divi due 19 June

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/GXH/analysis

    👌💛

  15. #210
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    GXH Annual Report Out.

    Result summary
    • Revenue of $567m (+5.6%)
    • EBITDA at $36.9m (+2.3%)
    • Operating Profit $29.4m (-2.2%)
    • Net Profit after Tax Attributable to the Parent Shareholders
    of $16.1m (+3.2%)
    • Pharmacy Revenue flat at $340m, Operating Profit down 5.5% at $27.3m
    on the back of a record low cold and flu winter season and a decline in
    gross margin as the company responded to competitive pressures
    • Medical performed strongly with Revenue up 33.8% and Operating
    Profit up 20.4% to $4.4m driven by an increase in enrolled patient
    numbers from organic growth and selective acquisitions
    • Community Health Revenue up 9.3% but Operating Profit $0.1m (down
    $1.1m) as the division continues to struggle with under-funding from
    various legislative changes
    • Operating Cash Flow $29.5m (down $3.7m)
    • Net Debt $32.5m (reduction of $6.0m)

    Long term I believe this business has many more opportunities for growth. I am in favour of their direction with medical centre operations. Aware the pharmacy side is taking a slower growth path due to competition, yet they could grow in online sales themselves if they were to increase their focus in this area.

    Reasonable divi 👌
    Last edited by Food4Thought; 27-06-2019 at 06:10 PM.

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