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  1. #361
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    You are only as good as your last game they say
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  2. #362
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    Thanks for the rubbishing Winner seemed to work again this time feel free again next week.

  3. #363
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beau View Post
    Thanks for the rubbishing Winner seemed to work again this time feel free again next week.
    Maybe it was the good things (cash flow etc) punters took on board
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  4. #364
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    This one was always on my radar but I never pulled the trigger. My views:

    - With the rise of online shopping, Chemist Warehouse coming into the market so aggressively and Covid, I thought this one would pivot digitally very hard but didn't. Their website is quite disappointing and they don't advertise as heavily for it as a HLG do who I get ads for on a regular. Also some of their stores leave a lot less to be desired with range and pricing. As a consumer, I'd much rather go to CW where I can get everything, rather than a lesser range. I also know they have some struggling stores that they continue to operate so they don't lose market share in a certain area, in a new age this really shouldn't be a thing.

    - The medical side of the business is probably the most interesting in a post covid area. That and the ageing population theory in NZ playing out makes it the most stable part of the business. However the more I think about it, the more I think another operator could just come in and disrupt the business again like pharmacy. You are for the most part providing a quite homogenous service and seniors are very price sensitive. A new medical centre offering a slight discount would eat their lunch (Like CW already has).

    - Community health is a struggle without the right amount of government funding but I see this as a societal thing. GXH have bemoaned in a lot of their reports a lack of funding in this area but in a post covid era, I don't see this getting better. I think if the government were to fund them to a higher level, it would not look great from a political lens that a healthcare company is making large profits in a country where healthcare is a right (we've seen this from both left and right governments in NZ).

    My opinion is that the business is a slow/low growth type one. It might get back to paying 3.5c dividends consistently again but beyond that, I don't see it growing to a point I'd be confident to say I'm getting compounded annual returns greater than just putting my money in a market tracking ETF.

    Disc: Not a holder.

  5. #365
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post
    This one was always on my radar but I never pulled the trigger. My views:

    - With the rise of online shopping, Chemist Warehouse coming into the market so aggressively and Covid, I thought this one would pivot digitally very hard but didn't. Their website is quite disappointing and they don't advertise as heavily for it as a HLG do who I get ads for on a regular. Also some of their stores leave a lot less to be desired with range and pricing. As a consumer, I'd much rather go to CW where I can get everything, rather than a lesser range. I also know they have some struggling stores that they continue to operate so they don't lose market share in a certain area, in a new age this really shouldn't be a thing.

    ...
    Interesting ...

    While I agree that Life Pharmacies (https://www.lifepharmacy.co.nz/) webpage is somewhat cluttered ... surprised anybody finds the Chemist warehouse (https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/) online experience better. Checked as well some products - and at least for my (admittedly not representative) wee survey prices are quite similar.

    I would think as well that the key decision criteria for using a pharmacy are location, accessibility and quality of service. Not sure how much of their service can sensibly be transferred online?

    GXH owns roughly one third of the pharmacies in NZ. I am somewhat surprised that posters here seem to think that they will bear the brunt of the onslaught of the so called discounters - and this is not even taking into account that the discounters seem to specialize on selling cheap cr*p without providing any service or advise.

    But even if the quality of their service would be comparable (which it clearly is not) - wouldn't it make sense to assume that it is more likely the small mum and dad pharmacies who might suffer? Unichem and Life Pharmacies do have some scale, are easier able to control their purchase prices and would find it easier to fight back on issues like opening times. They even might benefit if the Chemist Warehouse manages to kill off some of the small pharmacies (resembling so far 2/3rd of the NZ marketplace).


    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post

    ...

    - The medical side of the business is probably the most interesting in a post covid area. That and the ageing population theory in NZ playing out makes it the most stable part of the business. However the more I think about it, the more I think another operator could just come in and disrupt the business again like pharmacy. You are for the most part providing a quite homogenous service and seniors are very price sensitive. A new medical centre offering a slight discount would eat their lunch (Like CW already has).

    ...
    Seniors are hardly paying doctor fees anyway, aren't they? - hard to undercut small or no charges and still make money, isn't it?

    As well - the challenge to open up new "discounter clinics" might be related to finding all these unemployed GP's currently just lining up for working with a discount provider. I was under the impression that we suffer a doctor shortage currently ... but maybe you have some relevant insider knowledge into the health system and know where to find them, do you? I am sure the Ministry of Health would greatly appreciate your insights ...

    Obviously - the discounters could increase the GP salaries to lure away GP's from their current clinics ... but this might somewhat limit their potential to discount their services ;

    Obviously - none of us knows how the SP will develop, but at this stage I'd see their chances to do well much better than their risks to eventuate.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 19-04-2021 at 10:33 AM.
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  6. #366
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    I dont know how many of their Pharmacies are co located with their Doctors chain, but that must be a factor in their favour.

    Someone who has just been awarded their prescription, is less likely to stumble around town thinking where can I get this 20 cents cheaper?

  7. #367
    percy
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    I am currently having sinus issues and will be having an operation to fix ,shortly.
    So I am using paracetamol,ibuprofen and Neil Med Sinus rinse 120 premixed sachets.So lets check prices.
    .................................................. ............................Life Pharmacy.................The Chemist warehouse....Savings $.........Savings %
    Neil Med Sinus Rinse 120 premixed sachets......................$44.99............... ................$31.99...................$13.00... .............28.90%
    Ethics Paracetamol tablets 100s........................................$6.99. ...............................$2.49.............. .......$4.50....................256%
    Ethics Ibuprofen tabltes 100s...........................................$16 .99...............................$2.99........... ..........$14.00...................559%
    So each time I purchase all three the cost is ....................$68.97........................ ........$37.47....................$31.50.......... .......45.68%

  8. #368
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    Mmm, direct translation?

    Buy GXH quick!

    They are creaming it!

  9. #369
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    Not from me.,..........................lol.
    Point is you visit The Chemist Warehouse, either online or visit a store,and see how much you can save,why would you buy the same products from Life Pharmacy again.?

  10. #370
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    That Dan Carter chap seems on target , with everything he does...

  11. #371
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    All we need now, is for DC to take over Papa Surf's surfboard from AFT, to get some product moving through their chain.

  12. #372
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Not from me.,..........................lol.
    Point is you visit The Chemist Warehouse, either online or visit a store,and see how much you can save,why would you buy the same products from Life Pharmacy again.?
    Good question and interesting comparison. I looked more into the stuff the wife typically buys (like cosmetic / skincare) and didn't find that significant price differences. It is just - our spend on painkillers is neglectable - typically less than one package per year.

    Anyway - sorry to hear that you need the latter currently on a large scale. Hope things will improve for you soon - and I am sure that you know how to use them.

    Unfortunately not everybody does - much painkiller abuse in NZ ... and people are dying for overdosing on them - I recon this is the people who bought them cheap at the discounter or supermarket - the pharmacist would have reminded them to stick within the safe limits;

    However - just one other thought. I remember my grandmother using already 50 years ago the word "Apothekenpreise" (pharmacy prices) to describe the price level of shops with very expensive (too dear) products. Despite everybody knowing that pharmacies are expensive and have been over decades (and probably centuries) - they are still around. Funny that, isn't it?

    Maybe saving some cents per tablet on painkillers is not the only consideration for the majority of consumers? At least this is not the way it worked in the past, but maybe now things are different?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 19-04-2021 at 11:44 AM.
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  13. #373
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I am currently having sinus issues and will be having an operation to fix ,shortly.
    So I am using paracetamol,ibuprofen and Neil Med Sinus rinse 120 premixed sachets.So lets check prices.
    .................................................. ............................Life Pharmacy.................The Chemist warehouse....Savings $.........Savings %
    Neil Med Sinus Rinse 120 premixed sachets......................$44.99............... ................$31.99...................$13.00... .............28.90%
    Ethics Paracetamol tablets 100s........................................$6.99. ...............................$2.49.............. .......$4.50....................256%
    Ethics Ibuprofen tabltes 100s...........................................$16 .99...............................$2.99........... ..........$14.00...................559%
    So each time I purchase all three the cost is ....................$68.97........................ ........$37.47....................$31.50.......... .......45.68%
    Update.I have just checked The Chemist Warehouse price of the Sinus Rinse.Is now $29.99.,so total spend is now $33.47 and total saved is $35.50 or 51.48%.

    I first went into The Chemist Warehouse to buy some AiOra Bone + Joint tablets,and noticed the above products, that I had previously brought from the local chemist were far cheaper.Going by the numbers I see at The Chemist Warehouse I am not the only one who likes to save dollars.
    Last edited by percy; 19-04-2021 at 12:04 PM.

  14. #374
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Not quite as smart as winner in producing these amazing EPS vs SP charts, but here is my go:

    GXH-metrics.JPG

    Feels like PE (the third of the charts) is currently on the cheaper side, but who knows, maybe 2014 to 2018 (with a higher P/E) have only been a one off aberration ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 19-04-2021 at 12:33 PM.
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  15. #375
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Just for you Peter

    sed your EPS numbers. EPS for any March is shown as from prior Oct to next S ept (forward and backward looking eh). Shareprices are monthly close

    Guessed March 2021 EPS as 11 cents

    Over the duration of chart average PE has averaged 13.4 - take out the bubble period its average 11.1

    GXH need to tell the market aa story around how they are as good as they were in 2014/2015/2016 - but as long as they say silence (lack of stories to the market etc)they'll probably trade below that PE of 11.1 - on my eps guess share price should be 120 plus

    Interesting
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    Last edited by winner69; 19-04-2021 at 01:53 PM.
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  16. #376
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I reckon it's the the 'power of the story ' that drives corporate value - or rather a decent chunk of it

    GXH is obviously lacking a decent story and its share price currently reflects that

    Below is a chart of GXH's PE ratio over the last 10 years - if nothing else the PE reflects market sentiment

    I have noted the NZX50 PE (numbers from Jarden) at a few points in time - that measures overall market sentiment.

    GXH had something going for them from 2011 through to 2015. The +ve sentiment towards them (ie a good story) matched that of the overall market and their share price moved accordingly (even though earnings weren't spectacular)

    But since then whilst the PE of NZX50 has steadily increased (+ve sentiment) poor old GXH has seen its PE ratio falling away back to levels where it was 10 years ago whereas NZX50 has increased its PE from about 20 to over 30.

    My read is that GXH doesn't tell a very good story at the moment- a paucity of announcements could say they don't even have a story to tell.

    Until they start telling a good story (ie improve sentiment towards them) they will continue to languish with a PE of 10/11 (which some say is stupid)



    Yes, the 'power of the story' drives value - even more so than traditional fundamentals

    Get a good 'story' out there and market will sentiment will improve and we good see a share price of $2.50 or more (without making much more money)

    What was the GXH story from 2012 to 2016 -- probably was a good story - next rainy day might go through their 'publicity' / presos to see what it was

    But then some might say that that story was a pack of lies and nobody believes them any more
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    Last edited by winner69; 19-04-2021 at 04:11 PM.
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  17. #377
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    Story teller ABA had many bad years, but the management did maximize shareholders profit. talking to takeovers takeovers for years and eventually sold the business for a not too bad price. SP always high.

    GXH does have some similarity as ABA, however SP.....

  18. #378
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinglizard View Post
    Story teller ABA had many bad years, but the management did maximize shareholders profit. talking to takeovers takeovers for years and eventually sold the business for a not too bad price. SP always high.

    GXH does have some similarity as ABA, however SP.....
    Abano had a really good story ...but directors really stuffed up rejecting offers much higher than they eventually sold out for.

    Recent stories all about keeping face in resurrecting something out of the mess.
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  19. #379
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    This announcement is from Blis and refers to their sales channel in Australia..
    I would guess the same trend from pharmacy to online shopping is also happening here.,not only in supplements ,but most products stocked be pharmacies.

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371121

  20. #380
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    With a matter of a few weeks away from FY Announcement - if 2020 was any indication
    any bets on whether it will be a Div or a third Consecutive Div PASS BY from GXH ?

    Here is the Interim Announcement in Nov 2020:

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/363873


    In particular, the following excerpt-

    "Outlook and Dividend

    Green Cross Health is focused on delivering earnings growth whilst refining its operating model to adapt to changing market conditions. The Company has worked to maintain a strong Balance Sheet (including not paying a full year dividend for FY20) in light of the challenging landscape that has been shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In order to safeguard this position and to capitalise on acquisition opportunities that may eventuate as a result of the economic climate, the Board has resolved not to declare an interim dividend."
    Last edited by nztx; 10-05-2021 at 11:42 PM.
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

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