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27-11-2018, 09:14 AM
#191
CW are taking larger and larger bites out of GXH's pharmacy business.
GXH need to focus less on operating standalone pharmacy's and more on the centres performance... Medical is going well.
Not a holder
Last edited by hardt; 27-11-2018 at 09:19 AM.
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29-11-2018, 08:01 PM
#192
Originally Posted by hardt
CW are taking larger and larger bites out of GXH's pharmacy business.
GXH need to focus less on operating standalone pharmacy's and more on the centres performance... Medical is going well.
Not a holder
Yikes! This is an awful result. That operating cash flow could be bringing in warning bells to go from 17m to 8.7m in just one year. It makes you wonder because pharmacy is so big and medical/community health really doesn't contribute that much right now
I'm not sure what they can do on the pharmacy side given the fact Chemist Warehouse want to expand like crazy. I went into the one in St.Lukes and the price differences are night at day on most things, so driving there to pick up a few things is actually worth it. Either way, GXH loses if they keep dropping their margins or keep margins the same imo because the market is so small.
Disc: Not a holder
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29-11-2018, 09:36 PM
#193
Relative who's worked in pharmacies for years says losing custom to CW, despite being a 20 minute drive away
Last edited by DarkHorse; 29-11-2018 at 09:37 PM.
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04-12-2018, 02:01 PM
#194
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13-01-2019, 10:32 AM
#195
Wow - SP at $1.14 more than 60% down compared to its peak value of $2.90 in May 2016 - and basically a textbook downwards slope since then.
GXH.jpg
Average (backward) PE is now 11.3 - still not really cheap, particularly considering that we might move into PE contraction territory.
On the other hand - for the right competitor they might move into takeover territory. At what time are they cheap enough for a clued up overseas competitor to just buy the lot for a song and show the NZ healthcare system how efficient pharmacies could be operated?
Assuming they won't run NZ largest pharmacy chain (with some other health ad - ons) into the ground - where is the bottom PE? At 10? At 5? And will these margins continue to shrink given that any newcomer will be cheaper and better. Hard not to.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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13-01-2019, 11:26 AM
#196
You going to have a punt then BlackPeter
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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13-01-2019, 11:53 AM
#197
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Wow - SP at $1.14 more than 60% down compared to its peak value of $2.90 in May 2016 - and basically a textbook downwards slope since then.
GXH.jpg
Average (backward) PE is now 11.3 - still not really cheap, particularly considering that we might move into PE contraction territory.
On the other hand - for the right competitor they might move into takeover territory. At what time are they cheap enough for a clued up overseas competitor to just buy the lot for a song and show the NZ healthcare system how efficient pharmacies could be operated?
Assuming they won't run NZ largest pharmacy chain (with some other health ad - ons) into the ground - where is the bottom PE? At 10? At 5? And will these margins continue to shrink given that any newcomer will be cheaper and better. Hard not to.
You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
Last edited by percy; 13-01-2019 at 12:31 PM.
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13-01-2019, 01:10 PM
#198
Originally Posted by percy
You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
Interesting - EBOS market cap is 20 times the size of GXH. A takeover certainly wouldn't be a problem for them, but than - FMA might intervene ...
Unfortunate situation for the remaining retail shareholders.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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13-01-2019, 02:00 PM
#199
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Interesting - EBOS market cap is 20 times the size of GXH. A takeover certainly wouldn't be a problem for them, but than - FMA might intervene ...
Unfortunate situation for the remaining retail shareholders.
Any takeover will probably be one of those dastardly Scheme of Arrangement things with the Independent Directors recommending the deal at some price perceived to be cheap as (a steal in other words)
You’ll hate that BP so best to avoid getting involved?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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13-01-2019, 02:47 PM
#200
Originally Posted by percy
You need to research the largest shareholder.[controlling interest].
It is a joint venture between Andrew Bagnell and Peter Merton,who look to have premptive rights on each other's shareholding.
Then you have to research who Peter Merton holds for.Himself or Zuelig?
Then look at what company Zuelig holds 40% of.
If you find it is Ebos then you are on the right track.
At this point in time you would most probably be right to think EBO already controls GXH,as well as being their major supplier.
My guess if Andrew Bagnell ever wants out, then EBO will take it over.
Otherwise, should EBO decide there are more benefits for them to have, they will make a takeover bid for GXH.
Note Zuelig representitive and EBO director Peter Williams is a GXH director.
Great info Percy, much appreciated.
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