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02-01-2018, 09:50 AM
#161
Originally Posted by winner69
Percy - Ebos tend to not pay over the odds do they?
Well buying GXH on a PE of 12.9 while their [EBO] PE is 21.19 would be seen as eps accrective.
EBO's 40% shareholder Zuellig, already is a joint holder with Andrew Bagnell via Peter Merton of control of GXH,so it would depend on either Andrew Bagnall wanting to sell,or EBO,Zuellig making an acceptable offer to Bagnall.
I have always thought Bagnall, with his interest in planes and cars, would be happier having a large holding in TRA.
Interesting things happening in Australia, with The Chemist Wholesale putting their supply wholesaler/distributor up for "tender".
The fun would be if Ebos won that agreement/contract.
Last edited by percy; 02-01-2018 at 10:15 AM.
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02-01-2018, 01:07 PM
#162
Originally Posted by percy
Well buying GXH on a PE of 12.9 while their [EBO] PE is 21.19 would be seen as eps accrective.
EBO's 40% shareholder Zuellig, already is a joint holder with Andrew Bagnell via Peter Merton of control of GXH,so it would depend on either Andrew Bagnall wanting to sell,or EBO,Zuellig making an acceptable offer to Bagnall.
I have always thought Bagnall, with his interest in planes and cars, would be happier having a large holding in TRA.
Interesting things happening in Australia, with The Chemist Wholesale putting their supply wholesaler/distributor up for "tender".
The fun would be if Ebos won that agreement/contract.
EBO would pay cash wouldn’t they?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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02-01-2018, 01:16 PM
#163
Originally Posted by winner69
EBO would pay cash wouldn’t they?
GXH's current market cap is $237.6 mil,so EBO, as you point out they could pay cash.
I don't think they would issue shares,as Zuellig own 40% of EBO ,and issuing them shares would mean Zuellig would have to make a full takeover of EBO.
What I would find interesting is seeing where Andrew Bagnall invests,should he sell out of GXH.
Last edited by percy; 02-01-2018 at 01:20 PM.
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02-01-2018, 03:17 PM
#164
Originally Posted by percy
The share price appears to be still in a down trend,having fallen in the past year, from $2.50 to $1.60.
Current eps are 12.87 cents,the PE is 12.9 and the yield is 4.22%.
It would appear the arrival of Chemist Warehouse in NZ, has spooked the market.
So if you are thinking of buying,take care.
At some stage I expect Ebos will take them over,but at what price,I do not know?
There is a term in behavioural finance called overreaction bias which I think is at play. Basically, bad news is reacted upon twice as much (sometimes more) as good news. This is mostly due to an emotive response by people who have their money tied into a security. Certainly can see that with the slide from about 2.75 all the way down to 1.60 now.
I still think the longer term prospects on the company is very good given the trends at play in the sector. Would be a good time to get in and add too if you had a retirement portfolio. Short term, a lot of the heavy lifting is being down by the pharmacy side of the business.
I agree with you on EBO coming in and taking this one but its already pseudo owned by them behind the scenes by the looks of it.
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02-01-2018, 04:08 PM
#165
Originally Posted by value_investor
There is a term in behavioural finance called overreaction bias which I think is at play. Basically, bad news is reacted upon twice as much (sometimes more) as good news. This is mostly due to an emotive response by people who have their money tied into a security. Certainly can see that with the slide from about 2.75 all the way down to 1.60 now.
I still think the longer term prospects on the company is very good given the trends at play in the sector. Would be a good time to get in and add too if you had a retirement portfolio. Short term, a lot of the heavy lifting is being down by the pharmacy side of the business.
I agree with you on EBO coming in and taking this one but its already pseudo owned by them behind the scenes by the looks of it.
I think your summary is very clear,and I agree with all your points.
I agree also with W69's point about plain language set of accounts.
The business is very well run.
My only concern is just how profitable are Mall chemist shops ?
Last edited by percy; 02-01-2018 at 04:39 PM.
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02-01-2018, 07:46 PM
#166
Originally Posted by percy
I think your summary is very clear,and I agree with all your points.
I agree also with W69's point about plain language set of accounts.
The business is very well run.
My only concern is just how profitable are Mall chemist shops ?
I'm not too sure on mall shops. I'm guessing the play for GXH is to be paired next to medical centres that they own as well because the medical and pharmacy aspects really complement each other. People need to get their prescriptions, so this is what would drive foot traffic into the door. I also like the whole idea of offering flu shots in store bringing more people in.
Convenience is key I think, hence the online platform as well which looks like its mostly for their higher end, higher margin product.
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17-01-2018, 03:25 PM
#167
Quite a spectacular bounce, missed the boat on this one!!
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17-01-2018, 04:09 PM
#168
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
Quite a spectacular bounce, missed the boat on this one!!
Well, yes - but still below MA 200 (i.e. still in a downtrend), and to be fair - while the volume was above daily average, it is not that spectacular!
You might get well another chance to buy in ... though I am not sure, whether this chance will be an opportunity. I see lots of competition both for their prescription supply (Supermarket pharmacies) as well as for their cosmetics (online) and haven't really seen yet any innovation from GXH in this area.
NZ pharmacies are so incredibly inefficient compared with many countries overseas - and if GXH is not improving the system, than somebody else will and reap the benefits instead of them.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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17-01-2018, 04:58 PM
#169
Member
great little uptick here. maybe still another 10% left in this run...
don’t think the (growing) older generation are really going to be that keen to ‘shop online’ for their health products
provided they can go into a well-run store, get great face-to-face assistance, quality health advice and good ‘old-fashioned’ service, no reason not to keep coming back, especially if stores can be ‘well positioned’ next to medical centres to help drive extra foot traffic…
filthy
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17-01-2018, 07:12 PM
#170
I’m an online shopper for heaps of stuff but have rarely bought any medical supplies online.
Lets face it, when you are sick, you tend to want medical supplies asap. I can’t imagine too many people leaving their doctors with a script and then ordering online.
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