GXH - Green Cross Health (formerly PHB - Pharmacybrands)

[Lisa]

Thanks for such a well explained reply. I agree with you entirely and hope that the governance/management of GXH are thinking along the same lines.

[BlackPeter]

Anyone have a sense what GXH's current market share is?
(In other words, what proportion of the market might chemist warehouse and GXH be able to take from the un-smartened pharmacists - before they are just fighting it out between themselves and countdown?)

From their recent annual report - they (GXH) do have 360 stores. According to Dr Google are there overall 900 pharmacies in NZ. Obviously - there are smaller and larger pharmacies and I don't know whether GXH's pharmacies hit or exceed the "average turnover per NZ pharmacy", but based on the store numbers would I assume that their current market share is roughly 40%.

[BlackPeter]

Double bottom (red potatoes)?

RSI crossing back over the 20 (blue potato)

promising volume (yellow potato)


InkedGXH.jpg

Indicators starting to look friendlier - but obviously early days.

From a fundamental perspective: Backward PE (10 years) is 10 in combination with a backward CAGR of 12.

Forward PE is 7.1 ... but sure this involves forward looking estimates ;

And sure - there are risks with new discount pharmacies coming up, but they appear to be fully priced in. And hey - the future market looks rosy: aging baby boomers need not just retirement villages but will need to buy as well more health care, medication as well as beauty products ...

Analyst consensus (4-traders) is $1.41, DCF valuation is $1.56.

In my view great buying around $1 ...

Discl: holding ;

[Filthy]

Double bottom (red potatoes)?

RSI crossing back over the 20 (blue potato)

promising volume (yellow potato)


InkedGXH.jpg

Indicators starting to look friendlier - but obviously early days.

From a fundamental perspective: Backward PE (10 years) is 10 in combination with a backward CAGR of 12.

Forward PE is 7.1 ... but sure this involves forward looking estimates ;

And sure - there are risks with new discount pharmacies coming up, but they appear to be fully priced in. And hey - the future market looks rosy: aging baby boomers need not just retirement villages but will need to buy as well more health care, medication as well as beauty products ...

Analyst consensus (4-traders) is $1.41, DCF valuation is $1.56.

In my view great buying around $1 ...

Discl: holding ;

great summary BP thank-you!!

[peat]

I am surprised this has gone so low but am still a bit wary that management can turn it back into growth.
Even as static business though it is priced ok, if you have confidence.
Double bottom still happening though and it still may break down. So personally I'd wait for the old 1 , 2 before jumping

[Food4Thought]

I am surprised this has gone so low but am still a bit wary that management can turn it back into growth.
Even as static business though it is priced ok, if you have confidence.
Double bottom still happening though and it still may break down. So personally I'd wait for the old 1 , 2 before jumping

Confidence... (personally not)

If I can lend one observed lesson... these 70 New stores will be a real bite into the market share for GXH in beautiful New Zealand.

I hope they compete and out compete the new entrants... they are a big machine in Australia and certainly carving old style pharmacies a new sink hole.

I've been visiting some pharmacies in AUS and the older model pharmacies often look boring and dul. These previously strong brand pharmacies don't seem to be spending on shop improvements and aesthetics.

Also a friend is a pharmacist as a locum. Their view doesn't sound excited for the new entrants and was sure they were giving older pharmacies a big bite in the bottom line.

I sold out a while ago. I'd be cautious.
It's possible to compete, yet something will have to give.

I hope I'm wrong for the holders - I like kiwi run companies keeping profits in New Zealand.

[Nasi Goreng]

Confidence... (personally not)

If I can lend one observed lesson... these 70 New stores will be a real bite into the market share for GXH in beautiful New Zealand.

I hope they compete and out compete the new entrants... they are a big machine in Australia and certainly carving old style pharmacies a new sink hole.

I've been visiting some pharmacies in AUS and the older model pharmacies often look boring and dul. These previously strong brand pharmacies don't seem to be spending on shop improvements and aesthetics.

Also a friend is a pharmacist as a locum. Their view doesn't sound excited for the new entrants and was sure they were giving older pharmacies a big bite in the bottom line.

I sold out a while ago. I'd be cautious.
It's possible to compete, yet something will have to give.

I hope I'm wrong for the holders - I like kiwi run companies keeping profits in New Zealand.

I agree with what you got here. I’m not convinced management have figured out what they need to do so we can’t look at historical EPS with much confidence.

[BlackPeter]

I am surprised this has gone so low but am still a bit wary that management can turn it back into growth.
Even as static business though it is priced ok, if you have confidence.
Double bottom still happening though and it still may break down. So personally I'd wait for the old 1 , 2 before jumping

Wow - nearly 1.4 million shares changing hand today for $1.05!

Is this the "2" in "1, 2 and jumping"?

[winner69]

Wow - nearly 1.4 million shares changing hand today for $1.05!

Is this the "2" in "1, 2 and jumping"?

You’ve been itching to buy for a while — now must be the time, esp if a punter has capitulated

Low PE / high yield

[BlackPeter]

You’ve been itching to buy for a while — now must be the time, esp if a punter has capitulated

Low PE / high yield

Problem is just - no sellers anymore around at the nicely discounted price of around $1 . But hey, no problem ... I managed to get a few over the recent weeks ;