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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 5 April 2010 View Post
    I think you need to take that reported PE of 8.63 with a grain of salt as prob based on LGL reported financials which have no semblence to the merged entity

    A PE of 8.63 implies NPAT of more than $4 million which seems a bit far fetched at this stage .... even with the synergies of $2m which might come through

    Will be interesting to see how all this pans out
    I only just got around to looking through the FY result and agm speech. At $3.5m NPAT, they were probably a little over $4m NPAT normalised for acquisition timing. Synergies might have been better than suggested, since the agm speech says second half for both companies showed an improvement of $1.36m over prior. Although tax wasn't quite normal and there is a bit of interest income from the extra cash sitting there.

    I thought it looked interesting, though there is a fair bit of goodwill in the assets buried in the equity accounted value of group investments. Means ROIC is only okay-ish. Seems to me this is a difficult business to expand organically with expansion probably driven by acquisition and somewhat capped by the size of NZ (still a bit of room to go though), so acquisition price becomes critical. Overall looked to be fairly well run and I'd still see as reasonable value at current price (37cps).

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    I only just got around to looking through the FY result and agm speech. At $3.5m NPAT, they were probably a little over $4m NPAT normalised for acquisition timing. Synergies might have been better than suggested, since the agm speech says second half for both companies showed an improvement of $1.36m over prior. Although tax wasn't quite normal and there is a bit of interest income from the extra cash sitting there.

    I thought it looked interesting, though there is a fair bit of goodwill in the assets buried in the equity accounted value of group investments. Means ROIC is only okay-ish. Seems to me this is a difficult business to expand organically with expansion probably driven by acquisition and somewhat capped by the size of NZ (still a bit of room to go though), so acquisition price becomes critical. Overall looked to be fairly well run and I'd still see as reasonable value at current price (37cps).
    Thank you for your analysis Lizard.As allways well research,what I would expect from sharetrader's top analyst.

  3. #33
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    Just had a re-look through the Annual Report

    Rehashing the analysis already done to 31 March.

    NTA is 21.31 cents
    Revenue was 16.2 cents
    Profit was 3.58 cents

    With the price now at 32 cents this offers increased value in a different area of the Healthcare space, with PHB making up 28% of the pharmacy sector.

    Low liquidity would require patience to build a decent position though.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  4. #34
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    A good first half from PHB out today at $2.6m NPAT. Lots of cash on hand to underpin further expansion.

    Price has picked up on this illiquid stock (last sale 41cps), but valuation is outpacing as execution progresses.

    I'm currently thinking it's a reasonably safe "accumulate" at these prices (or at least as "safe" as illiquid small-cap stocks are ever able to be!).

  5. #35
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    I picked up 1500 of these the other day, just to get access to the spp at 45cps as a starter parcel. Hoping that the spp will bring a bit more liquidity into the market and the Radius acquisition will get them to a scale where they can get noticed.

    Looks like I'm not the only one, as a few being grabbed here at 65cps... given there were only 664 shareholders on the register and they are offering only up to $4500 for a maximum raising of $3.5m, it seems unlikely there would be much scaling. The lack of liquidity also puts a few barriers on grabbing some before the 18 July ex-date, so I guess it is pretty easy to justify picking up a few at "silly" prices. Though if this keeps up, it will probably bring out a few sellers with 10000 shares to spare that they can replace via spp.

  6. #36
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    According to the 'Independent Adviser's Report' there are a total of 670 shareholders. Take out the two main holders and you have 668. If they all take up the maximum allowed under the SPP then the amount raised will be just over 3 million, well short of the 3.5 million they are talking about. If some subscribe for less than the maximum, then they will raise even less, and the two main holders will own proportionally more of the company. Personally, I am not overly concerrned by this as I like it that the major shareholders and people driving this co. have the confidence to increase their exposure. I just hope they have their maths right, or, am I missing something?

  7. #37
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    Your purchase of 1500 shares !!..

    You have woken my interest into many of your well thought out posts.

  8. #38
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    Surprisingly ,Received my SPP today . Forgot about the 26 shares i still have; my broker overlooked selling in a past "Life"( think they were a divvy s/p). Worth a crack this time round.

  9. #39
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    Why are bidders jumping over themselves to try and pick up some PHB on such a down day? And surprised no one is selling to them, since that 64cps bid is a good premium on the recent 45cps spp!

  10. #40
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    Result on track for PHB at $4.1m NPAT for HY12 after booking $1.3m of one-off costs in association with acquisitions.

    Think they are probably usually stronger second-half too (Christmas/summer sales), so shaping up for a strong year... debt has been reduced back to unconcerning levels following the Radius Pharmacy acquisition and they are managing some small organic growth, driven out of dispensary revenues.

    Further growth in second half will come from the acquisition revenues (only acquired from this year), with synergy benefits likely to be obtainable over the next 12-18 months. I'd say $9-$10m NPAT for FY12, but could edge up to as much as $15m over the next 2 years. Offer price of 80cps (market cap $96m) is no longer a steal, but it probably still has some growth in it over the next year or two - and perhaps a dividend at some stage?

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Result on track for PHB at $4.1m NPAT for HY12 after booking $1.3m of one-off costs in association with acquisitions.

    Think they are probably usually stronger second-half too (Christmas/summer sales), so shaping up for a strong year... debt has been reduced back to unconcerning levels following the Radius Pharmacy acquisition and they are managing some small organic growth, driven out of dispensary revenues.

    Further growth in second half will come from the acquisition revenues (only acquired from this year), with synergy benefits likely to be obtainable over the next 12-18 months. I'd say $9-$10m NPAT for FY12, but could edge up to as much as $15m over the next 2 years. Offer price of 80cps (market cap $96m) is no longer a steal, but it probably still has some growth in it over the next year or two - and perhaps a dividend at some stage?
    Hi Lizard, one question: why do none of my shares look like this one? And why not a great deal more interest in the share on ST? I like the look of these store brands, when you're ill money is no great object, and Zuellig being partly behind it is also interesting. They should make a great deal more profit in the next half, at the moment it amounts to only 27k NP p.a. average per store. It's a great trend, not shared by too many companies.

    Credit: karen1

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Hi Lizard, one question: why do none of my shares look like this one?
    Simple answer; hold more shares... one of them is bound to!

    Yeah, I still like this one, although I'd like it more at 65-70c. Not sure what the chartists see, but I'd have thought a quarter of consolidation wouldn't go amiss? FY result not till May, so, on balance, I'd say there is no hurry.

  13. #43
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    Very happy with that full year result of NPAT $9.9m - right on the spot, but also very cash generative in second half (about $8.6m I think) and paid down another $10m of debt.

    Dividend of 3.5cps will also edge it towards greater visibility.

    Further improvement to come in NPAT this year - I value at $1.20 ish, so think the current 86cps still reasonable value.

  14. #44
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    Thumbs up Nice little earner

    Good one.

    I think a little celebration is in order.

    A bottle of Anchor Strong in hand whilst doing the 'Happy Tiger Bop'

    best wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  15. #45
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Very happy with that full year result of NPAT $9.9m - right on the spot, but also very cash generative in second half (about $8.6m I think) and paid down another $10m of debt.

    Dividend of 3.5cps will also edge it towards greater visibility.

    Further improvement to come in NPAT this year - I value at $1.20 ish, so think the current 86cps still reasonable value.
    Well done Lizard.An excellent result.

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