GXH - Green Cross Health (formerly PHB - Pharmacybrands)

[BlackPeter]

GXH real dog ....will struggle for years ....and maybe one day might actually be worth something

And all those intangibles - $133m ....when equity is $145m — wow

That should be enough rubbishing to give the share price a boost

PERCY says ‘why bother’ a lot - seems appropriate for investing in GXH

Actually - their earnings have been quite constant and reliable - averaging at around 11 cents per share. This gives them at $1.02 a PE of 9.3. Not too bad for a health stock ...

As well - they must sit by now on a nice cash reserve given they didn't pay last year dividends due to Covid (despite a nice profit).
Just wondering how big the divie will be this year?

On the other hand ... big majority shareholder might have interests not quite aligned with retail investors ... feels a bit like
CDI. Though - CDI actually served me quite nicely over the years (combination of dividend and SP rise is typically around 15% p.a.), even if it always looks to cheap. Maybe we can play the same game with GXH as well?

[winner69]

Actually - their earnings have been quite constant and reliable - averaging at around 11 cents per share. This gives them at $1.02 a PE of 9.3. Not too bad for a health stock ...

As well - they must sit by now on a nice cash reserve given they didn't pay last year dividends due to Covid (despite a nice profit).
Just wondering how big the divie will be this year?

On the other hand ... big majority shareholder might have interests not quite aligned with retail investors ... feels a bit like
CDI. Though - CDI actually served me quite nicely over the years (combination of dividend and SP rise is typically around 15% p.a.), even if it always looks to cheap. Maybe we can play the same game with GXH as well?

EPS might averaged around 11 cents ....but they have reliably been declining over recent years

My dataset has eps last 4 years as 14.2 /11.9 /11.3 /9.4 (2017 thru 2020)

I'd prefer to see the declining eps and ROE downward trend reversing to be comfortable with them

And H121 wasn't that brilliant although clouded by covod but they seemed to have actually gained something by taking the wage subsidy

Only rubbished them as that usually gives the share price a boost

[BlackPeter]

EPS might averaged around 11 cents ....but they have reliably been declining over recent years

My dataset has eps last 4 years as 14.2 /11.9 /11.3 /9.4 (2017 thru 2020)

I'd prefer to see the declining eps and ROE downward trend reversing to be comfortable with them

And H121 wasn't that brilliant although clouded by covod but they seemed to have actually gained something by taking the wage subsidy

Only rubbished them as that usually gives the share price a boost

As usual - you can make up any trend you want if you just pick the right dataset to support your argument.

I am working typical based on the last 10 years ... (2020 down to 2011):

$0.09 $0.11 $0.11 $0.14 $0.13 $0.11 $0.12 $0.11 $0.09 $0.05

based on this sequence the trend is even slightly pointing upwards ;

But each to their own ...

[James108]

My view is chemist warehouse will continue to take share from them.

Stores are too small scale and not specialised (I.e compared to Mecca for eg stores are similar sized but specialised) you can buy everything they sell cheaper somewhere else.

The doctors side of the business will always struggle to make much money as the doctors that work in the practices are the only asset. They are extremely well educated, not replaceable and will take a big share of earnings growth as wages. The alternative is the doctors leave and set up their own practice.

Then again could be wrong as I haven’t followed them much since I sold out money years ago.

[Rawz]

As usual - you can make up any trend you want if you just pick the right dataset to support your argument.

I am working typical based on the last 10 years ... (2020 down to 2011):

$0.09 $0.11 $0.11 $0.14 $0.13 $0.11 $0.12 $0.11 $0.09 $0.05

based on this sequence the trend is even slightly pointing upwards ;

But each to their own ...

I might have it wrong BP but you might have pulled this 10 year historical eps stuff out on MPG warning me and others off it when we were talking it up (we were wrong in the end as per most recent announcement). The only difference was the MPG eps over 10 years looked better than this GXH poor performance lol.

Shesh you got to be brave to be holding these shares as those last 10 years they did not have to deal with supermarkets, chemist warehouse, zoom pharmacy etc

GLTAH's, not for me

[flyinglizard]

I hope there is a takeover. The current management team cannot bring this company to success.

[winner69]

I might have it wrong BP but you might have pulled this 10 year historical eps stuff out on MPG warning me and others off it when we were talking it up (we were wrong in the end as per most recent announcement). The only difference was the MPG eps over 10 years looked better than this GXH poor performance lol.

Shesh you got to be brave to be holding these shares as those last 10 years they did not have to deal with supermarkets, chemist warehouse, zoom pharmacy etc

GLTAH's, not for me

Hey Rawz - GXH do consistently generate a fair amount of cash in spite of the competitive pressures

Like last 4 years Operating Cash Flows have totaled $126m of which they have invested $65m in buying things and paid $36m out to owners/shareholders. Not too shabby and as BP says dividends are likely to resume

However there is a bit Oceania to them - sell more but make less - not a good business model.

And then again they could do a WHS - plod along for years with 'disappointing' sales and then something clicks and they are off like a rocket

[Rawz]

Hey Rawz - GXH do consistently generate a fair amount of cash in spite of the competitive pressures

Like last 4 years Operating Cash Flows have totaled $126m of which they have invested $65m in buying things and paid $36m out to owners/shareholders. Not too shabby and as BP says dividends are likely to resume

However there is a bit Oceania to them - sell more but make less - not a good business model.

And then again they could do a WHS - plod along for years with 'disappointing' sales and then something clicks and they are off like a rocket

Consistently generate cash and little to no growth. This is sounding more and more like MPG. At least GXH shareholders have been collecting a dividend I guess.

I like a good value investment but the p/e would have to be at or below 7 for me

Tell me when they do a WHS thou and ill be in!

[Rawz]

BTW, did GXH get a bump from COVID? Pantry stocking? Margins improvement like every other (good) retailer?

[BlackPeter]

I might have it wrong BP but you might have pulled this 10 year historical eps stuff out on MPG warning me and others off it when we were talking it up (we were wrong in the end as per most recent announcement). The only difference was the MPG eps over 10 years looked better than this GXH poor performance lol.

Shesh you got to be brave to be holding these shares as those last 10 years they did not have to deal with supermarkets, chemist warehouse, zoom pharmacy etc

GLTAH's, not for me

Absolutely - trends do change and nobody - this is neither you nor me nor anybody else around here is able to predict future share prices.

I don't think either that I ever tried to do that, though it appears that some people have difficulties reading and call me out if a stock does well where I identified some risks or if a stock does bad where I identified opportunities. I think these people just don't understand that neither risks nor opportunities have to materialize (otherwise they would not be risks or opportunities, but certainties). However - even if they don't materialize they well might have existed.

So - just for the record - I do not know how stock prices will develop and neither do you. I try to contribute to the discussion by pointing to risks and opportunities of various stocks ... and I like to hear about other peoples viewpoints.

If you insist on reading into a risk or opportunity the absolute truth about a future outcome, than you should go to church or to the mosque. These are the only places I know of where they claim to know about the future with certainty. Obviously - we don't know either, whether they are right - i.e. please don't nail me down on that one.