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18-05-2019, 11:03 PM
#121
Member
Originally Posted by minimoke
Driving around town I reckon we cant be far away from Peak Ranger
Definitely agree with this. But I suspect its more a function of the market as opposed to moving away from the sector/Ranger (aside from the news on the brake issue I just saw).
Perhaps it falls to number 2 or at worst 3. But kiwis love a big high Ute it would appear.
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19-05-2019, 11:16 AM
#122
Its hard to beat the versatility of a Ford Ranger. Go almost anywhere, tow almost anything, versatility with load carrying of people and gear.
They are perceived as being very cool and that helps with sales too. Mrs Beagle is making murmurings of wanting a double cab ute, I wonder if I should be worried ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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14-08-2019, 07:50 PM
#123
CMO's net profit for the year down 12.3%.
In a tough new vehicle market, I would think they have done well.
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14-08-2019, 08:03 PM
#124
Originally Posted by percy
CMO's net profit for the year down 12.3%.
In a tough new vehicle market, I would think they have done well.
It's also a very thinly traded volume stock, after an amazing run since 2010 one might also consider taking profits at these lofty SP levels over $9 up over ~400%. Might take the market a few days to cotton onto the implications of reduced net profit, especially if it's endemic and a beginning of new trend?
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15-08-2019, 09:31 AM
#125
Agreed, historical PE of 13.6 is too high given the clear trend evidenced last year of a significantly weaker second half which is likely to be flowing through to current trading conditions. That PE is significantly higher than the average CMO has been trading on in better economic times. Outlook statement is very cautionary in its tone.
Last edited by Beagle; 15-08-2019 at 09:36 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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19-02-2020, 04:14 PM
#126
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19-02-2020, 04:31 PM
#127
Originally Posted by blackcap
Didn't they announce the downturn already last year this time? People just didn't wanted to believe ....
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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19-02-2020, 04:40 PM
#128
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Didn't they announce the downturn already last year this time? People just didn't wanted to believe ....
Yes they did, I sold my shares about half a year ago. However rev down 10% and profit down 25% is maybe more than people were expecting? Or maybe not, market does not seem too concerned at this stage.
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19-02-2020, 09:33 PM
#129
Outlook was extremely cautionary as noted in my post #125 above last August.
Outlook noted this time is for a similar result to first half, (albeit wide open to virus concerns) so as long as people behave now as they did before this latest uncertainty they should make about 50 cps for the year. Average PE in recent years has been about 11 so fair value seems to be about $5.50 less whatever you want to take off for the current untoward risk which might affect consumer behaviour somewhat for who knows how long ? On the other hand Ford and Mazda will likely pick up quite a bit of market share from Holden exiting the market. Maybe $5.50 - $6.00 is about where it should be all thing considered.
Last edited by Beagle; 19-02-2020 at 09:35 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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19-02-2020, 10:59 PM
#130
Originally Posted by Beagle
Mazda will likely pick up quite a bit of market share from Holden exiting the market. Maybe $5.50 - $6.00 is about where it should be all thing considered.
Its weird thinking what a Holden owner would migrate to. They would have a natural dislike to Jap Crap, I would think.
However I do think we need to add a $1 or more onto the fair value share price just because its The Colonial Motor Company Limited. A name from the era of the South Sea Bubble has to give some brownie points.
CMO.JPG
And also because it has been around 109 years. This also allows you to level up.
They managed to keep costs under control apart from wages which went up a little. But at the moment wont hold. Waiting though.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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