TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[TheHunter]

EBITDA in line with earnings guidance for 1H and earnings reaffirmed for full year with a promising outlook and while also being positioned to gain manufacturing efficiencies and provide required capacity.

Not sure what else people were expecting... no surprises at all.

Very reasonable result IMO, especially given international prospects.

[mondograss]

I just think that at this stage there's better options out there. I sold out back in October and bought Blackmores with the money. Up 33% since then.

[stoploss]

Sell orders getting pulled seems That 30,000 buy at 2.58 might set the scene for today

Scene for a shellacing......

[silverblizzard888]

yes, a 1,000 new doors opened ....... let's say a miserable 2 purchases a day from those coming in through these 1,000 doors (one at lunch time and one on the way home) ......that's 730 purchases a year per door ......730,000 purchases a year through 1,000 doors .... expensive stuff this trilogy so assume $25 a purchase ..... heck thats getting up to $20 million incremental sales per year

Just imagine what it would be if those customers made 4 purchases a day



Got to get rid of those blasted candles .....and put the investment into opening more doors

Actually thats even a conservative estimate because many of their products are actually at $50 so either a sale of two smaller items or one normal item would fit the bill. The sale of 2 normal items would be $100, do the math on that 730,000 x $50, thats a possible 18 -36 million

[JayRiggs]

When they say "1000 new doors", what exactly is a door? Bit of a loose term this "door".
I guess they mean a retail store, but that can be in all different shapes and sizes, ranging from a small local cosmetic store in the corner of the street, to a large department store like Walmart.

[silverblizzard888]

When they say "1000 new doors", what exactly is a door? Bit of a loose term this "door".
I guess they mean a retail store, but that can be in all different shapes and sizes, ranging from a small local cosmetic store in the corner of the street, to a large department store like Walmart.

when one door closes another one opens. Trilogy is about to go into the doors business, anyone for rosehip oil covered timber? Takes the wrinkes away and keeps it natural too

Jokes aside, its very vague indeed, though likely supply is with large franchises with many retails stops, cause ain't no one gonna knock on a 1000 doors asking to sell in a boutique store one by one.

[Balance]

Sigh ... back to always right to buy at $2.10, I suspect.

Have had a closer look at the financials:

EBITDA may have only fallen by $0.9m but in %tage terms, the fall is actually 12% which is a big number for a previously 'growth' rated stock.

NPAT would have fallen as well but for the net acquisition consideration adjustment of $525k.

The adjustment is not a good thing as it adds on to the $1m adjustment last financial year - so CS has had earn-out adjustments of $1.64m indicating that CS is not performing to earn-out projections and hence, TIL has overpaid and/or is not able to obtain the benefits of leveraging the distribution of CS - one of the strong rationales for its acquisition. CS's flat earnings is sobering.

So everything rests now on the second half to deliver the profit growth to offset the first half.

I suspect the market is not going to be holding its breath expecting a gang buster result comes May 2018 - given the subdued tone of the announcement which is the third now in a row.

Was rather hoping that TIL would rise to the occasion and surprise the market with a better than expected interim result - under-promise and over-deliver.

I regrettably retract my 'always right to buy at $2.10.'

[forest]

Thanks Balance for your take on it, yea disappointing.
Even something as simple as selling candles seem a challenge to them.

[Balance]

Thanks Balance for your take on it, yea disappointing.
Even something as simple as selling candles seem a challenge to them.

Actually selling candles is definitely a huge challenge which is why they branch off into skincare products, and initially hit the jackpot with Trilogy.

I initially invested in Trilogy because my partner absolutely swore by the product.

[Snow Leopard]

...I initially invested in Trilogy because my partner absolutely swore by the product.

What like "how the [beep] do you get this [beep] lid open on this [beep] [beep] jar?"