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10-02-2017, 11:47 AM
#1981
a conspiracy theory - biggest volume for mths yesterday someone capitulated and someone brought and now we get a speeding ticket on the downside for a bounce for the buyer and the seller to sell into lol
one step ahead of the herd
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10-02-2017, 11:53 AM
#1982
Originally Posted by boysy
10 months into the FY I take it they know fairly reasonably where they are to land from the 1HY results provided 2 months ago (as per commentary released on the 29/11/2016). While goodness is a growing brand Roger this shouldn't materially effect the results as they make up a small portion of total trilogy sales the biggie will be as Balance pointed out how the remainder of the trilogy brands and ecoya have faired. If net profit was anticipated to be only $7.5M (vs $9.2M last year) they would be undershooting their guidance significantly , I take it at the 10 month mark they have a fair idea of where they are likely to land.
TIL reaffirms guidance
We anticipate H2 seasonality to be consistent with previous years, with both revenue and profit being higher than H1.
While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable.
The recently signed agreement with QBID, our China e-commerce partner, will enable us to build this market over time, giving TIL greater transparency and control of sales into the dynamic China CBEC market.
Based on current trading and company forecasts, subject to FX fluctuations, TIL is tracking to deliver previously disclosed guidance for FY17. TIL expects revenue to be approximately $100-110 million, a 20-32 percent increase compared to FY16.
In line with our strategic priorities and required investment for the future, TILs FY17 EBITDA guidance is $1921 million, representing an increase of 17-19 percent compared to FY16.
If the market really believed that why is the SP tanking ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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10-02-2017, 12:06 PM
#1983
Not sure .. Are TIL heavily invested into Chile for some of their oils.. ??..
Massive out of control fires over there at present..
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10-02-2017, 12:11 PM
#1984
Originally Posted by Roger
If the market really believed that why is the SP tanking ?
Not really tanking - just re-adjusting and being rerated from a growth market darling stock with high multiples to a just a run of the mill stock which lacks any excitment
Trilogy came out with that $19m-$21m ebitda guidance late September when share price was $4.50 odd.
Tanked to $3.80 that day and has been steadily declining since - downward pressure in a low volume stock with selling by informed punters (as Balance put it so nicley)
Guidance stills stands so will be making $20m ebitda. No surprises there and at current price about 8.5 times ebitda. Seems about right
Last edited by winner69; 10-02-2017 at 12:35 PM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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10-02-2017, 12:32 PM
#1985
Was $5.00 in mid August 2016, 6 months ago and the 30 day MA is still over $3.00 so that's "tanking" in my book.
EBITDA an overrated yardstick. Even if they make $5.5m this half after last half's $3.5m that $9m after tax and on 72m shares that's eps of only 12.5 cps (PE 20) and an EPS decline from last year.
Turning to the technical's and looking at the chart, you'd be a very brave man to bottom pick here.
Last edited by Beagle; 10-02-2017 at 12:33 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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10-02-2017, 12:45 PM
#1986
Originally Posted by Roger
Was $5.00 in mid August 2016, 6 months ago and the 30 day MA is still over $3.00 so that's "tanking" in my book.
EBITDA an overrated yardstick. Even if they make $5.5m this half after last half's $3.5m that $9m after tax and on 72m shares that's eps of only 12.5 cps (PE 20) and an EPS decline from last year.
Turning to the technical's and looking at the chart, you'd be a very brave man to bottom pick here.
EPS will be 19/20 cents
PE aboiut 12/13 seems reasonable
Probably make more money next as well
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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10-02-2017, 01:32 PM
#1987
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Not really tanking - just re-adjusting and being rerated from a growth market darling stock with high multiples to a just a run of the mill stock which lacks any excitment
Trilogy came out with that $19m-$21m ebitda guidance late September when share price was $4.50 odd.
Tanked to $3.80 that day and has been steadily declining since - downward pressure in a low volume stock with selling by informed punters (as Balance put it so nicley)
Guidance stills stands so will be making $20m ebitda. No surprises there and at current price about 8.5 times ebitda. Seems about right
If the rumours of heavy discounting of product are true, that may mean they are pushing hard to meet revenue/sales guidance for the current year. With a growth stock, the current year is not what drives the sp, it is the future years, so guidance for FY18 will be what I'm watching
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10-02-2017, 01:52 PM
#1988
Originally Posted by winner69
EPS will be 19/20 cents
PE aboiut 12/13 seems reasonable
Probably make more money next as well
You might like to check your numbers mate. They raised $50 in capital in June last year.
https://www.trilogyproducts.com/medi...ber%202016.pdf
Despite all the fancy talk (corporate speak) of great sales growth and EBITDA growth for the most recent half year EPS after tax was only 5.0 cps for the half compared to 15 cps for the full year last year.
Sales growth and EDITDA growth are one thing but NPAT only grew 10% on an expanded capital base so in the most recent half year EPS after tax was very modest and didn't even match half of last year's result. EPS would have to have been 7.5 cps to even match half of last year so at only 5.0 cps on the weighted average number of shares on issue so I put it to the forum that all this sales and EDBITDA growth means nothing if it can't be translated to EPS after tax growth. Further if anecdotal comments that margins may be coming under pressure are true, this must be a concern for anyone hoping they'll get close to 15 cps this year.
EPS after tax is likely to decline this year from 15 cps last year...remember the Hound called in on here first. I put it to the forum that the reason the SP is tanking is that we're looking at an EPS decline this year so all the fancy sales and EBITDA growth talk means nothing as least as far as FY17 is concerned. (I accept that some investors are thinking further ahead than FY17)
Last edited by Beagle; 10-02-2017 at 02:04 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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10-02-2017, 02:11 PM
#1989
Roger I take it you have not seen the seasonality of the underlying business for both CS CO, Ecoya and to a lesser extent Trilogy sales. To say that EPS is falling is complete nonsense until we see the figures. 15 cps would equate to NPAT of $10.8M assuming they hit the EBITDA guidance of $19-$21M this appears highly unlikely (Note 2H16 they made $11M EBITDA for reference with the forecast suggesting they need to make between $12M-$14M EBITDA in 2H16 to meet guidance).
Of equal interest is the large off market trades 800k yesterday at 2.50 and 500k today at 2.55 who is selling and who is buying
Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils
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10-02-2017, 02:15 PM
#1990
The definitive guess
FY2017 EPS Range: $0.146 -- $0.166
You are allowed to expect some growth in future years.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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