TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[BlackPeter]

As I thought the 10% ebitda growth that has been touted all year had heaps of ‘hope’ written all over it. Was wishy washy wasn’t it

Profit downgrade (or hinting at one)

Just as well those holding will still get the $2.90 ...else on this news the share price probably sub $2

Trading update
TIL's guidance for FY18 remains unchanged as per Grant Samuel's independent adviser's report, which was released to the market with the Scheme Booklet on 23 February 2018. TIL notes that trading in the last three months has been relatively volatile with Ecoya brand sales lower than expected. In addition there are orders for both Trilogy and Lanocorp that may or may not close around balance date. These factors could negatively impact FY18 earnings by up to 10%.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315354

Don't forget that TIL management (particularly their CEO Angela Buglass) put in a lot of hard work to make the CITIC deal happen.

Trilogy International's planned takeover by Chinese conglomerate CITIC Capital was months in the making, says Angela Buglass, chief executive of the Auckland-based company.

For eight months, Buglass facilitated the deal, assisting directors and advisers with the finer details and steering commercial negotiations.

from: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11975852

She wouldn't risk all this hard work now with providing an overly optimistic trading update - would she?

Just wondering where the company would be now if Angela would have used all this bandwidth she put into the CITIC deal instead into growing the company?

But yes, I agree - no point in fighting a board and management team who clearly have their own agenda. I guess if shareholders decline their request - it would't be that hard for them to demonstrate how little the company is really worth - would it?

Memo: time to update my "never again" list ...

[winner69]

Don't forget that TIL management (particularly their CEO Angela Buglass) put in a lot of hard work to make the CITIC deal happen.



from: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11975852

She wouldn't risk all this hard work now with providing an overly optimistic trading update - would she?

Just wondering where the company would be now if Angela would have used all this bandwidth she put into the CITIC deal instead into growing the company?

But yes, I agree - no point in fighting a board and management team who clearly have their own agenda. I guess if shareholders decline their request - it would't be that hard for them to demonstrate how little the company is really worth - would it?

Memo: time to update my "never again" list ...

Only doing what the shareholders (at least the big ones) told her to do

Wouldn’t have helped ‘negotiations’ if they had said last September that F18 earnings were likely to be flat ......so a wishy washy statement like ‘expected’ F18 ebitda growth to be ‘greater than 10% subject to .....’ gives a lot more hope eh .....and probably a few more cents on the takeover offer.

It’s been apparent for a while (from the numbers) that the business had reached the stage where growth was hard to come by and selling the business is the best outcome for ALL shareholders.

Hope you don’t put Baker/Ross and Buglass on your blacklist

[trader_jackson]

Boy oh boy, wouldn't' surprise me if those guys that have proposed to pay near the top of the range of an 'independent valuation' are now trying to use the small print to get out of it...
no wonder things have gone pretty quiet lately.

Lets hope this get out of jail free card holders have been handed does go through because if it doesn't, $2.10 will not be an "always right to buy" level

[winner69]

Boy oh boy, wouldn't' surprise me if those guys that have proposed to pay near the top of the range of an 'independent valuation' are now trying to use the small print to get out of it...
no wonder things have gone pretty quiet lately.

Lets hope this get out of jail free card holders have been handed does go through because if it doesn't, $2.10 will not be an "always right to buy" level

No deal ...sub $2 i would say

[silu]

Wouldn't anyone want to sell at the current price in case the deal doesn't go through? If not why not?

[BlackPeter]

Boy oh boy, wouldn't' surprise me if those guys that have proposed to pay near the top of the range of an 'independent valuation' are now trying to use the small print to get out of it...
no wonder things have gone pretty quiet lately.

Lets hope this get out of jail free card holders have been handed does go through because if it doesn't, $2.10 will not be an "always right to buy" level

Pretty sure these boys (and girls) are sleeping well. They clearly have (after recent due diligence) a premium seat on the companies performance data. Would it be permitted for them getting a special update from the CEO - or do they need to be satisfied with a wink and a nudge?

Seriously - after many months of working together am I sure they will know whether they need to be concerned about the spin of the recent announcement. Just too convenient to combine the reminder for the meeting with an sales update designed to cast doubt over the recent companies performance - without really stating anything negative which could later on be checked.

Directors just doing their job for the big shareholders ...

[JayRiggs]

I plan to vote yes on Wednesday.
If Business Bakery intend to vote with their 32.1% holding, under what scenario will the takeover NOT go through?

[trader_jackson]

Wouldn't anyone want to sell at the current price in case the deal doesn't go through? If not why not?

That is why the share price isn't trading bang on $2.90, and instead a couple percent below it - Mr Market clearly isn't quite 100% convinced it will go through
If I was a holder I'd happily sell for a few percent discount rather than wait around to, maybe (although likely, yes) get a few cents more.

[winner69]

Wouldn't anyone want to sell at the current price in case the deal doesn't go through? If not why not?

A bit of selling today?

[BlackPeter]

A bit of selling today?

Certainly not from Morgan Stanley - they topped up by a cool 2 million shares last week. Do they really just want to make meager 2 percents by selling them on to CITIC?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...357/276043.pdf