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  1. #991
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    No - the $3.83 is todays value. Its the present value of all future cash flows

    I used a 11% discount rate which implies a 'value' of $9.80 in 2025 (if things play out as per assumptions used)
    Ahhh makes much more sense! Thanks for the patience in explaining these things

  2. #992
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    Just to clarify my position - my value of $6.25 is at 31 March 2017. I've been careful in calculating what I expect this FY revenues to be and how that will filter down to the bottom line. Trilogy is currently the highest margin, then CS&Co followed by ecoya. I prefer not to try to estimate earnings too far out as I see it as a dark art. Suffice to say I see FY17 as estimateable and I'm happy that the growth trajectory will still have legs to continue beyond FY17 (at which point I'll roll forward my estimates). I know the growth needs to continue to deem my method relevant. If I thought growth would fall off a cliff or was unsustainable I would not be applying this technique.

    I am estimating what I think the market will reasonably pay on 31 March 2017 and investing accordingly.

    Many will see my method as over simplistic and that's fine. I consider many other factors as well. In my other life as a structural engineer there is a saying "earthquakes don't care how fancy your model/analysis is" and it's something that rings true with me for the stock market (and other parts of life) as well. I mean no disrespect to other ways of doing things. I'm glad we can have a robust discussion and share our assessment of things!

    cheers

  3. #993
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    My Base Case scenario has an eps of ~27 cents for FY17
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #994
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    My Base Case scenario has an eps of ~27 cents for FY17
    So 50% increase in EPS & forward PE of 18 at $3.86 hmmm

  5. #995
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    So 50% increase in EPS & forward PE of 18 at $3.86 hmmm
    Kiora

    Base Case is $5.09 now - implying $5.90 in a years time

    I'll refer to that in future (The $3,83 case if high growth isn't sustained post F17)
    Last edited by winner69; 30-05-2016 at 08:15 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #996
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    Good to see our black boxes have come out at a similar FY17 eps winner. Mr market hasn't been able to come up with the same over the weekend though by the looks.

    I wonder when the first broker report will be in. Any ideas?

  7. #997
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jinx View Post
    50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

    Edit: Numbers
    current eps 15c
    1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
    2 years = 33.75c
    3 years = 50.6c

    Edit 2: More numbers
    Revenue growing by 50% each year for 3 years = 280m revenue in three years. I'd be smiling at that
    This is very optimistic. Next year 50% is easy because F16 only counted 7.5 month of CS.
    but i don't think Trilogy can maintain this high growth in F18 and F19. It's more like 20~30% growth rate.

  8. #998
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevevai1983 View Post
    This is very optimistic. Next year 50% is easy because F16 only counted 7.5 month of CS.
    but i don't think Trilogy can maintain this high growth in F18 and F19. It's more like 20~30% growth rate.
    Just to explain my position, I wasn't suggesting that the 50% figure is sustainable, was simply running silverblizzards numbers

  9. #999
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Kiora

    Base Case is $5.09 now - implying $5.90 in a years time

    I'll refer to that in future (The $3,83 case if high growth isn't sustained post F17)
    Hi W69,I meant the $3.95 yesterdays closing price,not your projections.I should have implied seems undervalued at yesterdays closing price of $3.95 given its potential growth.
    Last edited by kiora; 31-05-2016 at 05:23 AM.

  10. #1000
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    Someone throwing away money at 385 this morning it would seem. One has to wonder when the first broker report based on the most recent presentation is released.

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