TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[stoploss]

t_j be a bit more reasonable mate

Just like you are a believer in PEB, boysy believes the TIL story. No harm in that is there

I sort of a believer (in TIL, not PEB ha ha) but recent events have dented the degree of believeness - may i'll get it all back when TIL says full year ebitda will be $25m plus

Let's wait and see

No harm in being a believer ( but plenty of people believed in PEB over $ 1.50 ), I personally believe a lot of comments are verging on a ramp ,like commenting on how many bids and every second trade that was going through . So would just like to see a bit of balance so as to caution any less sophisticated investors ....a selection of the posts I refer to below , where has the market gone after all of these ???

"Decent off market sales at 454 of $240k good to see buying interest at these levels following recent movements. Once again BWX is up seven cents to 566 with a MC of AUD$518m (NZD $545m). Makes you wonder what a listing on the ASX could bring with TIL having 20 million fewer shares on issue but a similar product line albeit TIL being a premium product and having greater diversity of earnings through CS company and ecoya."

"Sizeable 100k trade at 460 off market of course"

"And another 100k on close surely for turnover of nearly $1m"



"Quite right lets see where TIL sits in a months time brokers who cover BWX will be all over TIL like a rash. Seems like TIL is a few weeks behind BWX price action and recent recovery."


"continuing to buy at these levels still think the ASX listing will be a catalyst for a rerate when it will be compared to BWX (albeit TIL having better revenue and greater diversification than BWX). Still trading at circa 30% below BWX MC bring on the AGM"



"It will continue to tread water until the AGM in a few weeks. Still think TIL will suprise the market with the trading update happy to add to holding at this level."



"Think plenty of bagging candles has gone on here lets wait to see a trading update my bet gross margins is increasing for the ecoya products than anything else TIL. Like your >$6 plus valuation winner would be good for the market to catch up a bit but happy buying around the 4.50 level this week will seem very cheap in a few weeks me thinks."

[Balance]

No harm in being a believer ( but plenty of people believed in PEB over $ 1.50 ), I personally believe a lot of comments are verging on a ramp ,like commenting on how many bids and every second trade that was going through . So would just like to see a bit of balance so as to caution any less sophisticated investors ....a selection of the posts I refer to below , where has the market gone after all of these ???

TIL is similar to stocks like PEB, XRO, SCL, CVT, SEK etc which delivered/deliver spectacular gains for shareholders.

Inevitably, enthusiasm can spill over into commentaries which could be construed as ramping but in my mind, are actually more a reflection of excitement and optimism. The danger as always is that posters then lose objectivity and then, write to provide self reassurance.

It is really up to readers to be on guard and to maintain objectivity and balance.

There is a general market sell-off underway and high beta high performance stocks like TIL are going to get sold off more than other stocks.

I decided to trim back my shareholding as the ASX listing has not delivered the increased liquidity and coverage the listing was expected to achieve. Means that TIL is vulnerable to sell-offs by those sitting still on huge gains, plus there are now some shareholders with big lines of stock from the $50m share placement in June, plus placement of shares to Forestal casino.

TIL needs to maintain confidence as it is trading on high multiples. A successful ASX listing can help maintain that higher multiple.

Just my view.

PS. Ramping = done with intention to push up sp to sell = actionable as against the law

[boysy]

The joy of this forum is anyone can post their views whether positive or negative. It's good to have robust discussion one has to remember TIL is up strongly from where it was a year ago so many holders will be sitting on good profits at these levels.

It would appear as though TIL is tempering expectations for FY17 we will see in 4 weeks how the 1st Half trading has gone, as always they could very well be trading below the forecast but they do have a hostory of late of conservatism on the forecasting front.

[Balance]

The joy of this forum is anyone can post their views whether positive or negative. It's good to have robust discussion one has to remember TIL is up strongly from where it was a year ago so many holders will be sitting on good profits at these levels.

It would appear as though TIL is tempering expectations for FY17 we will see in 4 weeks how the 1st Half trading has gone, as always they could very well be trading below the forecast but they do have a hostory of late of conservatism on the forecasting front.

Agreed re conservatism.

Market is now getting concerned however that as Comvita has now admitted, the China government crackdown will impact upon sales, profits and future growth.

[Beagle]

Agreed re conservatism.

Market is now getting concerned however that as Comvita has now admitted, the China government crackdown will impact upon sales, profits and future growth.

Posted in CVT thread but relevant to this one as well I think
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china...cle-title-like

[boysy]

Worth noting that the key growth markets are Aussie and the US,TIL never were pinning hope on china alone like other players. THe biggie will be if TIL can retain or grow market share in the natural skincare market in NZ, AUS and US which is still growing at circa 20% pa. The market is currently not buying the storey ,will the results in 4 weeks prove this narrative is the question.

[sb9]

Yep until fair value is worked out by both exchanges then the old mexican standoff occurs reducing liquidity further on an already illiquid stock,the opposite to what most of us thought would happen.

Bit more volume trading today on NZX, hopefully this can ease the liquidity issues going forward and sp can find a good trading range...

[couta1]

Bit more volume trading today on NZX, hopefully this can ease the liquidity issues going forward and sp can find a good trading range...

Sellers creating liquidity on the NZX but the ASX is as dead as a doornail, sold the rest of my recently purchased parcel for a loss and bought more A2 to bring my average price down(A neutral transaction from my viewpoint) I don't see the price going much over $3.80 until the update at which time the price could drop significantly if the market is disappointed with the update. Learnt another wee lesson about taking a punt on positive outcome of dual listings. Aside from that Til has been a positive experience overall for me, all the best to holders especially those who have recently purchased.

[winner69]

Bwx price drifting down - being rerated?

[winner69]

Worth noting that the key growth markets are Aussie and the US,TIL never were pinning hope on china alone like other players. THe biggie will be if TIL can retain or grow market share in the natural skincare market in NZ, AUS and US which is still growing at circa 20% pa. The market is currently not buying the storey ,will the results in 4 weeks prove this narrative is the question.

The market has bought the story - why does it trade at such lofty multiples?