TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[winner69]

Waiting for the 1/2 year before updating my DCF valuations

How rich we get all depends on how Trilogy Skincare/ Ecoya (to a lesser extent) perform. CS will be a steady earner and the icing on the cake

Below is my old chart showing my forecast Trilogy/Ecoya sales under different growth scenarios.

The guidance for F17 is below the Conservative- Low Growth forecast

I am winding back my overall expectations (maybe sucked in by the hype) and am starting to think the Conservative case is going to play out. The Base Case is now the growth story. The High Growth case is just pie in the sky stuff (even though some brokers are pretty close to my numbers)

As such $3.14 is a fair valuation and if you believe the story $4.44 is it (current value, not a target)

Trading accordingly

[co0p]

What are everyone's predictions for sales by segment? I'm thinking:

18.0M - Natural Products
10.5M - Home Fragrance
19.0M - Distibution

I still believe sales in NZ (largest market) of natural products were affected by the change in distribution. Ecoya is going to be the star performer.

[winner69]

What are everyone's predictions for sales by segment? I'm thinking:

18.0M - Natural Products
10.5M - Home Fragrance
19.0M - Distibution

I still believe sales in NZ (largest market) of natural products were affected by the change in distribution. Ecoya is going to be the star performer.

So -

Home Fragrance up $1.9m or 22%
Natural Skincare up $2.4m or 16%

Sales exc CS up $4.3m or 18% - not much eh, especially considering the past company hype

You can see why I amtending to think my Low Growth scenario is playing out - DCF valuation of $3.14

I note you expect 'expected' sales guidance to be about right - wouldn't be surprised it thy came in more like $48.5m - can make those huge %ages they'll be quotingbeven more impressive

[co0p]

Yip, certainly not as strong growth as FY16. Full year growth rates are little better (assuming they reach top end of guidance).

[winner69]

BWX share price crashing not going to help any Aussie sentiment there might have been towards to Trilogy

[Balance]

BWX share price crashing not going to help any Aussie sentiment there might have been towards to Trilogy

17m BWX shares released from escrow on 12 Nov 2016 - could be reason why.

Especially when some of them (3.94m) are options exercisable at $2.00.

Can imagine that the option holders will be keen to realise A$10m of gains.

[LAC]

Down Down Down Down she goes. Might have to top up if it gets any lower

[sb9]

17m BWX shares released from escrow on 12 Nov 2016 - could be reason why.

Especially when some of them (3.94m) are options exercisable at $2.00.

Can imagine that the option holders will be keen to realise A$10m of gains.

To be released on 12 Nov 2016?

[silu]

Down Down Down Down she goes. Might have to top up if it gets any lower

With that chart und buyers depth I'd be very careful to pick a bottom for this one.

[Beagle]

Picking bottoms is a dangerous game. Better to follow the technical indicators and wait until it breaks back up through the 100 day MA line...whenever that might be ?