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  1. #1751
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    So that's a cool $14.4m up on the $55m of shares sold/placed/SPP at $3.70 in a few weeks!
    That was July when share price went past 470

    All gone now

    As Mr P keep telling us 'the market giveth....but the market also taketh'
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1752
    Osake
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    Does anyone think the reason for the first TIL teleconference call for 1H results at end of Nov is really for the purpose of celebrating good news?

  3. #1753
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Anybody able to shed some light on the NBR Shoeshine story today , behind a paywall so I haven't been able to read it . "Is Trilogy burning out ?"
    Except for a few quotes from the PIE man it was a pretty negative story

    Maybe the likes of Shoeshine can influence the market

    We'll blame him for the collapsing share price eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1754
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That was July when share price went past 470

    All gone now

    As Mr P keep telling us 'the market giveth....but the market also taketh'
    Sobering - it took close to 5.5 months from March for the sp to go from $3.40 to $4.70 - and just one month for TIL to give up all of that gain.

    Not a stock for the fainthearted amongst us?

  5. #1755
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    the whole "organic" industry is just a fad imo
    it's not really any better/healthier according to any scientific metric or research

    so while that was rampant and full of hype, anything with the word "organic" was hot
    but reality will eventually set in, and the fad will die down

    this is imo only

  6. #1756
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    Certainly not for the faint hearted. Valuation pretty reasonable now if we assume guidance is met and the potential one-offs aren't one-offs.

    Regarding the "organic fad" - it doesn't take much scientific knowledge to get a feeling that organic products are better for you. Pumping yourself full of synthetic chemicals just doesn't feel like a particularly good idea. I'd be more worried about rosehip falling out of favour for another natural product

  7. #1757
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Jeez - share price in the 320's

    Hope punters not believing my $3.14 valuation

    Can't go much lower can it?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #1758
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    We need PIE et al to start splurging out again

    That'll get the share price back to $4 plus quite quickly ......and help them in improving their returns
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1759
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez - share price in the 320's

    Hope punters not believing my $3.14 valuation

    Can't go much lower can it?
    Well, looks like the ASX listing was a fad ... as they often are.

    It always can go lower (but never below NIL). Depends just on your assumptions of how to value the company.

    If we assume the growth phase is over and the companies revenue is plateauing from here, than the share would be worth something like $2 (at a PE of roughly 10);

    If we assume that the market will shift next year to the next hyped up fad and drops TIL products ... than the SP is obviously worth less than that.

    I don't know what scents our better half's are preferring next year, but what is sure is that what goes up must come down - question is just, when. Difficult to determine the long term fundamentals of a growth company which just came into fashion ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 01-11-2016 at 10:01 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #1760
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    We need PIE et al to start splurging out again

    That'll get the share price back to $4 plus quite quickly ......and help them in improving their returns
    Wonder if the recent trading activity triggers any changes in SSH notices, that'll be interesting to watch.

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