TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[co0p]

Yes I did. No specific detail on Goodness 'investment' so figured it's inventory build plus promotions kick-start (rapid skimming). I was frankly impressed with all the responses Angela gave and the affirming comments given by Geoff and Steven. Goodness now has 2000+ sales doors after just 18 months of efforts. I believe Goodness will become the sustaining component of TIL. It's quite clear that while CS&Co has lower gross margins consequently impacting the group through to EBITDA, I still believe this acquisition is strategically smart and for the price of that investment will deliver sizable (by market comparison) and efficient distribution of both Trilogy and Goodness brands while simultaneously leveraging wider distribution synergies. Ye have faith...and will continue hold for now.

Cool, thanks for the update.

Not sure if an inventory build would affect the P&L.... I'm hoping at least some of the "investment" was spent on product development.

[muss1]

Not sure why the market reacted the way it did. It was exactly as expected. And adding back the inventory build there was good growth in natural products (25% including 38% in Aus). Ecoya may always be the battler.

I will do a more thorough read through and write up in the next few days

[trader_jackson]

Not sure why the market reacted the way it did. It was exactly as expected. And adding back the inventory build there was good growth in natural products (25% including 38% in Aus). Ecoya may always be the battler.

I will do a more thorough read through and write up in the next few days

You are correct. The headline numbers were exactly as expected, in fact slightly ahead... they are not the problem.

But continued dramatic worsening of operating cash flows? EPS of no growth? Skyrocketing administration costs? Margins continuing to get lower and lower? These are not good trends, and, as I've compared before on this thread, completely the opposite direction to (what some like to say is a comparable sotck), BWX

[muss1]

You are correct. The headline numbers were exactly as expected, in fact slightly ahead... they are not the problem.

But continued dramatic worsening of operating cash flows? EPS of no growth? Skyrocketing administration costs? Margins continuing to get lower and lower? These are not good trends, and, as I've compared before on this thread, completely the opposite direction to (what some like to say is a comparable sotck), BWX

In general that is a problem I agree, but these cost increases were still part of the guidance so were not surprises. The guided revenue and EBITDA provided enough information to deduce an increase in costs.

The factors you have referred to have been discussed by the company for months. They are setting themselves up for growth. If they don't grow then it becomes a concern.

EPS still expected to increase by >20% for FY17. Full year OCF will be significantly in the positive.

[kiora]

You are correct. The headline numbers were exactly as expected, in fact slightly ahead... they are not the problem.

But continued dramatic worsening of operating cash flows? EPS of no growth? Skyrocketing administration costs? Margins continuing to get lower and lower? These are not good trends, and, as I've compared before on this thread, completely the opposite direction to (what some like to say is a comparable sotck), BWX

Fear not :From Craigs: Operating cash flow was down substantially (-$4.3m in 1H17 vs $5.67m in 1H16) due to increased inventory build up at CS&CO in the lead up to Christmas. Working capital for CS&CO will be substantially lower in the second half as inventory is sold down. This will also reduce debt levels and interest costs. The balance sheet remains in good shape with gearing of 21.5%.

[Balance]

Cool, thanks for the update.

Not sure if an inventory build would affect the P&L.... I'm hoping at least some of the "investment" was spent on product development.

Inventory build up does not impact on profit - unless there is write down.

Be real concern if the write down is because of impact of sales not meeting expectations so will impact on future periods.

[LAC]

I was not surprised by results, its what I expected. I think they will hit their top end of forecast FY17 and the business will be in a better position for FY18. I will be worried if they dont hit forecast and the business is declining in revenue (I expect more specials over the years which will eat into margins).
My 6 year projection spreadsheet had TIL % margin dropping every year for the next 6 years as they grow.
They were never going to sustain their current growth rate or even stay close. They will still grow for the next 6 years so will continue to hold. I expect divi increase (only tiny) if there is no acquisitions during the year.
I think their marketing spend is a bit high and I expect that to increase in the coming years BUT I really hope they use the $ in better more targeted marketing - TIL products NEVER really stand out to me in a store, I find them because I am looking for it. I also think their "organic" branding needs to be more pronounced. Evolu seems to be better at marketing their "organic" brand.

[sb9]

I think overall result isn't that great but remember they were coming on back off huge growth last year, hence the numbers may look bit subdued.

Have listened to the conference call afterwards and there were analysts from Craigs, CLSA and Bell Potter who asked some good probing questions around future outlook. I think the management have some roadshows planned over net few days and they sure have their work cut out.

Having said that they've delivered bang on their guidance and I believe they would probably do at top end of guidance for full year.

Disc - still holding not contemplating selling

[co0p]

I think overall result isn't that great but remember they were coming on back off huge growth last year, hence the numbers may look bit subdued.

Have listened to the conference call afterwards and there were analysts from Craigs, CLSA and Bell Potter who asked some good probing questions around future outlook. I think the management have some roadshows planned over net few days and they sure have their work cut out.

Having said that they've delivered bang on their guidance and I believe they would probably do at top end of guidance for full year.

Disc - still holding not contemplating selling

Is there somewhere we can access the conference call? I would like to hear what they have to say.

[sb9]

Is there somewhere we can access the conference call? I would like to hear what they have to say.

Sorry tried looking for audio transcript, but no luck.

Seems bit of accumulation of going on today with good volume being traded through. Fact that the price has not dropped that much today, punters are happy to accumulate around 335 mark, good sign.