TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[RupertBear]

1

1

9:09:00 am

250

800,000

$2,000,000

Surely now totally unloved by the looks, seems like a big player selling down.

Is that you selling Pierre?

[BlackPeter]

..,

If you believed in the fundamentals a few months ago there is no reason to change your opinion. No new evidence has surfaced.

Don't forget that the "fundamentals" contain often big hype factors (assumed growth, brand loyalty, "goodwill" and similar). Take the growth away and this is still a ways too dear retailer of cosmetics and candles. Assume customers might lose interest and move to more reasonable priced stuff - and this is a shipwreck.

Didn't bother to check the balance sheet - but the reported NTA is hardly worthwhile mentioning - so I assume most of the fundamentals is based on "goodwill", growth assumptions and faith. All stuff which can easily evaporate.

Not saying this is the case here, but just trusting into last years "fundamentals" can be expensive.

[winner69]

This year profit maybe $14m or 19 cents a share

So current PE about 13. Forecasts seem to have future earnings growth at about 10% so maybe oriced about right(?) at the moment

Believe the story and the hype and its worth 4 bucks .....but I fear the excitment / buzz has gone from TIL. Its done its dash and just another stock

Best outcome now is that inevitiable takeover

[muss1]

Don't forget that the "fundamentals" contain often big hype factors (assumed growth, brand loyalty, "goodwill" and similar). Take the growth away and this is still a ways too dear retailer of cosmetics and candles. Assume customers might lose interest and move to more reasonable priced stuff - and this is a shipwreck.

Didn't bother to check the balance sheet - but the reported NTA is hardly worthwhile mentioning - so I assume most of the fundamentals is based on "goodwill", growth assumptions and faith. All stuff which can easily evaporate.

Not saying this is the case here, but just trusting into last years "fundamentals" can be expensive.

Hence why I left it to the individual to decide how they feel about the fundamentals.

I just get frustrated seeing people "deciding to sell" based purely on the fact the stock price has gone down (having bought in as investors not traders). That and the self congratulation of "I told you so" posters assuming their assessment of the situation is correct because the stock price happens to be at a certain level. If earnings growth continues they are going to be wrong, if it doesn't they will be right. We just don't know yet.

Anyway...

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed on 4-trader: growth and earnings assumptions have just been further reduced. Future growth now down to 13% pa. Consensus now $2.80 (down from $4) ... and recommendation "underperform";

Note: analysts are typically too optimistic particularly when downgrading their previous darlings ...

[sb9]

This year profit maybe $14m or 19 cents a share

So current PE about 13. Forecasts seem to have future earnings growth at about 10% so maybe oriced about right(?) at the moment

Believe the story and the hype and its worth 4 bucks .....but I fear the excitment / buzz has gone from TIL. Its done its dash and just another stock

Best outcome now is that inevitiable takeover

Looks like there's bit of positive if look at BWX (Sukin brand) HY results out today across ditch, impressive numbers....hopefully its not all that bad for TIL after all.

[bull....]

til was clearly in a bubble at $5 and once a bubble bursts we all no what happens or in tils case is happening - timber

[stoploss]

Looks like there's bit of positive if look at BWX (Sukin brand) HY results out today across ditch, impressive numbers....hopefully its not all that bad for TIL after all.

I think the BWX analogy went out the window a long time ago ..... Remember "when we list on the ASX people will value it the same as BWX " When we list on ASX a lot more fund managers will be able to buy"
"there will be increased liquidity when we list on ASX"...all three some fodder for a TUI ad .......
BAL went South big time , ATM continues to do well , so doesn't mean a good result from BWX will flow to TIL.

[Balance]

Alternatively, a big player in the know taking the opportunity to pick up some cheap shares. The transaction goes both ways... might see a SSH notice soon.

If you believed in the fundamentals a few months ago there is no reason to change your opinion. No new evidence has surfaced.

The new evidence I suspect is the fact that companies selling via the grey channel to China (CVT, ONL and BWX) have been more adversely impacted than they originally expected and advised the market.

Trilogy products are definitely been discounted now in the market - Trilogy Rosehip was selling for $37 last year but at health product and skincare shops can be obtained for $31. That's a big drop in margins.

[Bilbo]

til was clearly in a bubble at $5 and once a bubble bursts we all no what happens or in tils case is happening - timber

Yes, share prices tend to overshoot on the way up and also overshoot on the way down. So the question is whether they have overshot yet, or is there more downside to come? I sold 90% of my holding at $3.75 (on the way down from the peak) after having bought in at $1.21 and continuing to buy up to $2.75. Sold the remainder yesterday at $2.66 due to continued downtrend and it falling below my last purchase price.

Would love to know what PIE Funds are doing. No SSH notice yet so I assume they are still holding. I would imagine TIL has been a huge anchor on their fund's performance over the last 6 months.