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  1. #1971
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    They say they continue to comply with continuos disclosure stuff.

    No surprises - they'll still make about $20m EBITDA this year - but that doesn't cut the mustard being a high growth market darling. Those days are gone.

    Back to normal valuations for steady as she goes companies I reckon

    The world is happy at he moment so $2.50 is the lowest it'll go
    Last edited by winner69; 10-02-2017 at 09:17 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1972
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    Very big volumes thru and price bounced.If you have courage, buy.
    So it was you buying yesterday
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1973
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Market is obviously pricing in and expecting a profit downgrade and earnings disappointment. So is the market right?

    If TIL's sp trend is any guide, the market has been pretty accurate in the past.

    One of the most interesting observations passed to yours truly here over the decades when evaluating a stock's propensity to trend on 'informed' trades is to look at whether the sp gaps on results and price sensitive announcements.

    The chart of TIL suggests to me that the informed market is driving the sp.

    Leaving the stock well alone until they announce their results or trading update.
    Good stuff there Balance me old mate

    Charts often tell a story eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1974
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    They say they continue to comply with continuos disclosure stuff.

    No surprises - they'll still make about $20m EBITDA this year - but that doesn't cut the mustard being a high growth market darling. Those days are gone.

    Back to normal valuations for steady as she goes companies I reckon

    The world is happy at he moment so $2.50 is the lowest it'll go
    Perhaps more to the point mate is they only made $3.5m after tax for the most recent half year...suppose $7m for the current year, (seeing as goodness may be in the process of being removed from some supermarkets), maybe $4m for the second half so perhaps $7 - 7.5m after tax this year and on 72m shares that EPS of just on 10 cps. At $2.50 they appear to be priced on a forward PE of 25, (unless I am missing something ?) which is pricing normally ascribed to high growth companies. This begs the question of whether they still are a high growth company ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    They say they continue to comply with continuos disclosure stuff.

    No surprises - they'll still make about $20m EBITDA this year - but that doesn't cut the mustard being a high growth market darling. Those days are gone.

    Back to normal valuations for steady as she goes companies I reckon

    The world is happy at he moment so $2.50 is the lowest it'll go
    Hey winner, did you notice BWX closed at a full $5 across the ditch...spose TIL shouldn't be compared with that I guess...

  6. #1976
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    10 months into the FY I take it they know fairly reasonably where they are to land from the 1HY results provided 2 months ago (as per commentary released on the 29/11/2016). While goodness is a growing brand Roger this shouldn't materially effect the results as they make up a small portion of total trilogy sales the biggie will be as Balance pointed out how the remainder of the trilogy brands and ecoya have faired. If net profit was anticipated to be only $7.5M (vs $9.2M last year) they would be undershooting their guidance significantly , I take it at the 10 month mark they have a fair idea of where they are likely to land.

    TIL reaffirms guidance
    We anticipate H2 seasonality to be consistent with previous years, with both revenue and profit being higher than H1.
    While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable.
    The recently signed agreement with QBID, our China e-commerce partner, will enable us to build this market over time, giving TIL greater transparency and control of sales into the dynamic China CBEC market.
    Based on current trading and company forecasts, subject to FX fluctuations, TIL is tracking to deliver previously disclosed guidance for FY17. TIL expects revenue to be approximately $100-110 million, a 20-32 percent increase compared to FY16.
    In line with our strategic priorities and required investment for the future, TIL’s FY17 EBITDA guidance is $19–21 million, representing an increase of 17-19 percent compared to FY16.
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  7. #1977
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Hey winner, did you notice BWX closed at a full $5 across the ditch...spose TIL shouldn't be compared with that I guess...
    Yep .... $5.00 is about 17 times F17 ebitda

    Compared to 8.5 multiple for TIL on $21m ebitda

    Some would say somethings not quite right.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #1978
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Share price on fire today - near the top oif the leaderboard

    Back to 3 bucks next week

    No worries
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1979
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Share price on fire today - near the top oif the leaderboard

    Back to 3 bucks next week

    No worries
    Haha On fire. dead cat bounce.

  10. #1980
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Share price on fire today - near the top oif the leaderboard

    Back to 3 bucks next week

    No worries
    ....another speed bump?
    Last edited by Hoop; 10-02-2017 at 10:27 AM.

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