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  1. #1991
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Time will tell boysy and yes I have reviewed the seasonality of the business. Bottom line is EPS was flat in the Sept half compared with the PCP on the weighted average number of shares on issue.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #1992
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    You might like to check your numbers mate. They raised $50 in capital in June last year.
    )
    All i'm saying is $21m ebitda (guidance) will result in about $14m npat (plus or minus a bit)

    On 72 million shares thats 19.5 cents/share for F17

    Just used current number of shares - if calculated on a weighted basis eps prob a little higher
    Last edited by winner69; 10-02-2017 at 01:25 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1993
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    Well mate by my calculations if they hit the mid point of their sales guidance for the year $105m taking into account sales declared for the half to 30 September sales for 2H FY17 will be only a 6.5% increase on PCP.

    Therefore In 2H Fy16 they made 10 cps on a significantly lower number of shares on issue with sales only 6.5% less than what's projected this period (but on significantly less issued shares). 2H Fy17 there appears to be anecdotal reports of margin pressure and grey channel challenges into China and reports of Goodness coming off shelves. Even if they make the mid point of the sales target they have I struggle to see how they'll match last years second half EPS of 10 cps so therefore I see EPS < 15 cps for the year (Bet you a beer on it).

    All I'm saying is the best guide to the immediate future is the immediate past. They made 5 cps after tax on $47.7m sales last half on lower weighted average number of shares. This half based on mid point of projected annual sales range they appear to be shooting for $57m sales. Are they really going to make more than 10 cps on sales only increasing $10m this half in what is already seen as the peak half for them especially when margins appear they might be under pressure ?

    Of equal interest is the large off market trades 800k yesterday at 2.50 and 500k today at 2.55 who is selling and who is buying
    Boysy The buyer is probably PIE funds digging themselves into an even deeper and more intransigent position. What's their escape plan if they've got this one wrong ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 10-02-2017 at 02:37 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #1994
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Well mate by my calculations if they hit the mid point of their sales guidance for the year $105m taking into account sales declared for the half to 30 September sales for 2H FY17 will be only a 6.5% increase on PCP.

    Therefore In 2H Fy16 they made 10 cps on a significantly lower number of shares on issue with sales only 6.5% less than what's projected this period (but on significantly less issued shares). 2H Fy17 there appears to be anecdotal reports of margin pressure and grey channel challenges into China and reports of Goodness coming off shelves. Even if they make the mid point of the sales target they have I struggle to see how they'll match last years second half EPS of 10 cps so therefore I see EPS < 15 cps for the year (Bet you a beer on it).

    All I'm saying is the best guide to the immediate future is the immediate past. They made 5 cps after tax on $47.7m sales last half on lower weighted average number of shares. This half based on mid point of projected annual sales range they appear to be shooting for $57m sales. Are they really going to make more than 10 cps on sales only increasing $10m this half in what is already seen as the peak half for them especially when margins appear they might be under pressure ?
    Heck you might be right - but say <15 cents eps = ~$10m npat (maybe less)

    If that is going to be the case then I would say they are lying to the NZX today when they say are meeting continuous disclosure thingies seeing ebitda guidance is $19m-$21m
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1995
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Heck you might be right - but say <15 cents eps = ~$10m npat (maybe less)

    If that is going to be the case then I would say they are lying to the NZX today when they say are meeting continuous disclosure thingies seeing ebitda guidance is $19m-$21m
    Winner they have given themselves an out imo with this line "While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable."

    Wait for it as we foreshadowed ..............

  6. #1996
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    Keep in mind Winner that there were only 62 million shares on issue last year so 16% more shares on issue now ! 2H FY17 sales projected to grow only 6.5% based on mid point of companies own forecast but on the terribly inconvenient truth of 16% more issued shares.
    Speaking of awfully inconvenient...last years average exchange rates achieved as per 2016 annual report 92 cents Aust, 67.7 cents U.S. and only 45.1 U.K. pence.
    Heck ! you think the current exchange rates might have an effect on export margins this half ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #1997
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Winner they have given themselves an out imo with this line "While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable."

    Wait for it as we foreshadowed ..............
    Look how that's impacted CVT and the other minnow listed manuka honey exporter...and then there's the separate issue of counterfeiting.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #1998
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Winner they have given themselves an out imo with this line "While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable."

    Wait for it as we foreshadowed ..............
    If the unpredictable has happened ....and impacted guidance by say 15% wouldn't they be 'compelled' to come clean under continuous disclosure ..... Yes?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1999
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    If the unpredictable has happened ....and impacted guidance by say 15% wouldn't they be 'compelled' to come clean under continuous disclosure ..... Yes?
    Looking at last years annual report EPS barely registers as a figure. Its all about SALES growth, EBITDA growth in HUGE highlighted sections of their annual report.
    EPS is only reported almost only because they have to based on a statutory obligation. They do realise a company is supposed to be all about EPS growth right ?
    (anyway the naughty and at times deeply cynical hound shall try and confine himself to his kennel now...the way some companies respond to their continuous disclosure requirements makes me bark too much)
    Last edited by Beagle; 10-02-2017 at 03:13 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #2000
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Keep in mind Winner that there were only 62 million shares on issue last year so 16% more shares on issue now ! 2H FY17 sales projected to grow only 6.5% based on mid point of companies own forecast but on the terribly inconvenient truth of 16% more issued shares.
    Speaking of awfully inconvenient...last years average exchange rates achieved as per 2016 annual report 92 cents Aust, 67.7 cents U.S. and only 45.1 U.K. pence.
    Heck ! you think the current exchange rates might have an effect on export margins this half ?
    Believing what they say I'll concede that eps could be as low as 17 cents (using 72 million shares though weighted number will be less eh) but could be as high as 20 cents.

    If eps comes in at <15 cents ( your number) the share price will get decimsted and those big buyers this week will be really gutted and pissed off (sellers will be saying if only they knew what I knew)
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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