TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[winner69]

Looking at last years annual report EPS barely registers as a figure. Its all about SALES growth, EBITDA growth in HUGE highlighted sections of their annual report.
EPS is only reported almost only because they have to based on a statutory obligation. They do realise a company is supposed to be all about EPS growth right ?
(anyway the naughty and at times deeply cynical hound shall try and confine himself to his kennel now...the way some companies respond to their continuous disclosure requirements makes me bark too much)

And the announcements to the NZX never mention profit after tax or such things

Growth company, Roger, things like sales and ebitda (proxy for cash flow) are the real metrics

Whoever going to buy them out will only be looking at these things .....and current price at 8.5 times ebitda soon could be an opportune time

[Beagle]

And the announcements to the NZX never mention profit after tax or such things

Growth company, Roger, things like sales and ebitda (proxy for cash flow) are the real metrics

Whoever going to buy them out will only be looking at these things .....and current price at 8.5 times ebitda soon could be an opportune time

Must be only silly old fashioned bean counters that expect growth companies to be growing eps then and expect acquisitions to be eps accretive...heck what does a silly old bean counting hound know anyway...I blame this modern crazy world where shares can be $19 (XRO) and the company has never made a profit. Growth eh...never mind sales per share for 2H FY17 are declining as long as the company can post they have SALES and EBITDA growth in huge bold highlights in the next annual report nothing else matters. No doubt management will get juicy bonus's this year because of sales growth targets being reached...hmmm.

[winner69]

Must be only silly old fashioned bean counters that expect growth companies to be growing eps then and expect acquisitions to be eps accretive...heck what does a silly old bean counting hound know anyway...I blame this modern crazy world where shares can be $19 (XRO) and the company has never made a profit. Growth eh...never mind sales per share for 2H FY17 are declining as long as the company can post they have SALES and EBITDA growth in huge bold highlights in the next annual report nothing else matters. No doubt management will get juicy bonus's this year because of sales growth targets being reached...hmmm.

But Only cheats take the easy way out by of using things like using eps and pe ratios - the silly old fashioned bean counter way is to do the gard yards and do discounted cash flows and economic value added stuff.

A dcf for trilogy with very modest growth assumptions and some margin contraction still comes to an equity value of $2.30 odd (on 72 million shares).

But then the assumptions (and even the baseline) is based on what the company says anywsy - maybe a load of ****e

[Beagle]

DCF's only as good as the bunch of guess's that they're predicated upon. Real world stuff for bean counters mate. Sales expected to grow this half at only 6.5% on PCP and on a 16.2% expanded capital base so on an adjusted basis for the extra capital 1.065 x 62 / 72 = 0.917 sales for the current period now are down 8% per share. I reckon that's a damming indictment on the current growth rate of the company compared to last years sales growth and begs all sorts of questions about future growth rate assumptions implied into some people's DCF model's. Sniffing the breeze I can see sound reasons for the collapse in the SP in recent months as after all nobody likes to see their so called growth company going backwards in share capital adjusted terms do they ! Mark my words, none of these things will be highlighted in the forthcoming annual report. There will only be talk of sales and EBITDA growth and how the company is repositioning itself for future growth e.t.c.. and the horrible inconvenient truth of an EPS decline will not even rate a mention ! A very wealthy client of mine once said to me that many annual reports are "full of it". I used to think he was wrong. Cavalier's most recent one is a prime example of what he was talking about.

[winner69]

With a market cap of $160m Trilogy has a market value added of $90m (difference between mcap and equity)

In silly old fashioned bean counter lingo that is saying the present value of future returns over and above their cost of capital is going to be $90m

Might achieve $4m to $5m of that this year - so a fair bit 'growth' built into current share price

[winner69]

Hope you never do those sort of sums for Heartland going back to when they acquired Seniors and recent cap raises.

[Beagle]

Hope you never do those sort of sums for Heartland going back to when they acquired Seniors and recent cap raises.

Heartland growing EPS mate and forecast too as well. Seniors not the greatest acquisition in terms of its early run rate but it seems to be coming right.

[winner69]

Strong day on the bourse for Trilogy - up 5% plus today

Maybe yesterday was capitulation day and it's upwards and onwards from here

No worries

[Balance]

Must be only silly old fashioned bean counters that expect growth companies to be growing eps then and expect acquisitions to be eps accretive...heck what does a silly old bean counting hound know anyway...I blame this modern crazy world where shares can be $19 (XRO) and the company has never made a profit. Growth eh...never mind sales per share for 2H FY17 are declining as long as the company can post they have SALES and EBITDA growth in huge bold highlights in the next annual report nothing else matters. No doubt management will get juicy bonus's this year because of sales growth targets being reached...hmmm.

A new generation of investors always think they know better.

1980s - M&A frenzy using inflated sp. Result 1987 sharemarket crash.

1990s - Economic growth funded by debt spurred sharemarket boom. Result - 1997 AFC.

2000s - Dotcoms with sp determined by sales multiples! Result - Dotcom crash.

2000s (again) - Exotic risk containment products and leverage using derivatives. Result - GFC.

2010s - you decide.

Thank goodness there are robust discussions going on here and great contributions from the Rogers of the world to keep us thinking (and having nightmares!).

[horus1]

Well I bought some and topped up. Havent sold any on the way down either. Hope they do not plummet. Big volumes going thru, wouldn't be a takeover would it.?