TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[Balance]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

One thing I keep reminding myself - NEVER invest or buy on the way down.

Picking bottoms are for the French!

[Baa_Baa]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

You may be correct, if so that would be an awesome call picking the bottom, a bounce at the 550 day moving average(!). The daily indicators all perked up a bit as well and as you pointed out the huge volume, Money Flow leapt back into positive territory. There's a buyer for every share sold, so clearly the bid side is optimistic as well.

Edit: Those spooky Fibs again, the $2.45 low bounce? is exactly 61.8% retrace of the entire move up from week ending July 17 2015. Make of it what you will.

On the daily trend basis however, and the weekly and monthly charts it's a mess, in a severe slice-your-hand-off-catching-the-falling-knife downtrend.

[bull....]

You may be correct, if so that would be an awesome call picking the bottom, a bounce at the 550 day moving average(!). The daily indicators all perked up a bit as well and as you pointed out the huge volume, Money Flow leapt back into positive territory. There's a buyer for every share sold, so clearly the bid side is optimistic as well.

Edit: Those spooky Fibs again, the $2.45 low bounce? is exactly 61.8% retrace of the entire move up from week ending July 17 2015. Make of it what you will.

On the daily trend basis however, and the weekly and monthly charts it's a mess, in a severe slice-your-hand-off-catching-the-falling-knife downtrend.

nice bounce from the fib alright and i reckon thurs and friday were capitulation days so i brought some see what happens , also it is oversold on the rsi

[winner69]

The stars are all in alignment ....even the NZX says its OK

Not much can go wrong now

Maybe $3 this week ... And then how much more

[Beagle]

Roger, good work yesterday on Trilogy .....but I can't understand why you are so down on Trilogy

I pulled out a few key financial performance ratios for F15/F16 and put our guesses for F17 in the table

Even you would have to agree that all metrics are pretty healthy, even for F17 using your dismal outlook

The main point (relevant to your points on the ginormous increase in shareholder funds) is that Trilogy ROE and ROIC remains more than respectable and above F15 levels. The extra capital has been put to good use.

A ROIC of 18% this year (my guess) is fantastic - surely adding value.

Suppose the debate is around what is a Trilogy share worth - probably never was worth $5 but current price doesn't look unreasonable - maybe cheap

Just another pennies worth from The Bees Knees

The F17 numbers below are W69 and Roger's guesses. Basis of Rogers 'guess is he mentions mid point of saes guidance and sees EPS <15 cents

The impact on sales and margin of the change in tax of only 12% on grey imports in China has been breathtaking as far as CVT is concerned and the other minnow listed manuka honey company and also for other Australian listed health and wellbeing companies.
I think the risk to the sales target is to the downside and the risk to margin is very real. If sales for H2 FY17 are at the bottom end of guidance for the year $100m sales growth will have ostensibly stopped in this half compared to the PCP and that on issued shares that are 16% higher. If margins are also under pressure as I think they probably are from more intense discounting to try and maintain sales and a much higher $Kiwi there is quite a bit of potential for the EPS to really disappoint. If my base case comes true, (acknowledging predicting the future is extremely difficult at the best of times) the shares at $2.60 will be trading on a PE of 260 / 0.13 - 0.14 = 18.5 - 20.0 and that for a company with negative EPS growth. There remains plenty of risk to the downside in my opinion especially from a technical perspective looking at the chart but also from a fundamental perspective through both EPS and PE contraction as the stock is re-priced both for lower earnings and much slower medium term growth, (if any).
I see a lot of risk and a high chance of disappointment with this stock but what would a silly bean counting hound know about smelly stuff and special oils anyway... GLTH and I'll leave it at that.

[Xerof]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

Kizame, from a pure TA candlestick perspective, you have identified a very rare formation, know as a bullish abandoned baby

I know little of this outfit, but the TA signal is saying something

[RupertBear]

Kizame, from a pure TA candlestick perspective, you have identified a very rare formation, know as a bullish abandoned baby

I know little of this outfit, but the TA signal is saying something

So a rare but reliable signal of a trend reversal from my google search! Hmmm tempting!

[winner69]

The stars are all in alignment ....even the NZX says its OK

Not much can go wrong now

Maybe $3 this week ... And then how much more

Not much can go wrong now - nothing can go wrong now with a bullish abandoned baby pattern appearing (thanks xerof)

This week will be exciting

[RupertBear]

Not much can go wrong now - nothing can go wrong now with a bukkish abandoned baby pattern appearing (thanks xerof)

This week will be exciting

You will be buying up large then Winner!

[muss1]

The impact on sales and margin of the change in tax of only 12% on grey imports in China has been breathtaking as far as CVT is concerned and the other minnow listed manuka honey company and also for other Australian listed health and wellbeing companies.
I think the risk to the sales target is to the downside and the risk to margin is very real. If sales for H2 FY17 are at the bottom end of guidance for the year $100m sales growth will have ostensibly stopped in this half compared to the PCP and that on issued shares that are 16% higher. If margins are also under pressure as I think they probably are from more intense discounting to try and maintain sales and a much higher $Kiwi there is quite a bit of potential for the EPS to really disappoint. If my base case comes true, (acknowledging predicting the future is extremely difficult at the best of times) the shares at $2.60 will be trading on a PE of 260 / 0.13 - 0.14 = 18.5 - 20.0 and that for a company with negative EPS growth. There remains plenty of risk to the downside in my opinion especially from a technical perspective looking at the chart but also from a fundamental perspective through both EPS and PE contraction as the stock is re-priced both for lower earnings and much slower medium term growth, (if any).
I see a lot of risk and a high chance of disappointment with this stock but what would a silly bean counting hound know about smelly stuff and special oils anyway... GLTH and I'll leave it at that.

Roger, still don't understand your argument. I understand you believe sales are hurting and margins may contract. But are you assuming they won't hit their EBITDA guidance? The guidance they effectively reaffirmed last week.

Otherwise I can't see how you are getting from EBITDA to EPS. We aren't expecting any surprise interest, depreciation or amortisation...

I understand that your view on the company is pretty negative (which is fine - good for discussion), but I just don't understand your numbers