TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[Beagle]

Hi muss1, just to clarify...I see material risk to the downside in EBITDA. TIL confirming they are not in breech of their continuous disclosure requirements obviously gave the market some comfort on the day but I am skeptical. I think the market is generally very skeptical too, how else do you explain the dramatic decline in the SP in recent months ? Put another way their EDITDA and sales guidance has been known to the market for quite a long period of time but the SP has been dropping like a stone lately and that's with PIE funds buying support digging themselves deeper and deeper into an intransigent position. The way I see it sales growth has dramatically declined for this company and may be close to flat...how do they make 10 cps as per 2H Fy16 this half when they have 16% more shares on issue in that sort of sales environment with a much higher $Kiwi ? What I'm suggesting here is that something simply does not compute which is what started the hound sniffing and digging. Time will tell. It will be an interesting one to follow.

[muss1]

Ok so just to clarify once and for all... your EPS estimates are a result of lower EBITDA rather than guidance EBITDA not finding its way to the bottom line as efficiently?

All the other stuff is unknown and I agree - time will tell. The market was disappointed with the original guidance and nothing has happened to turn things around since. No argument from me on that. The Pie story adds another layer of intrigue!

[Beagle]

Yes that's it exactly muss1. When you hold such a large chunk of a relatively illiquid stock what else can PIE funds do other than to reaffirm they are a believer in the long term growth story and possibly keep increasing their investment ? Digging a big hole for themselves or a brilliant long term investment strategy, time will tell

[bull....]

I think the dramatic decline was a fund selling drying to sell out, as the price keeps falling momentum takes over.

hence why you get big volume days at the bottom of the decline, means they throw in the towel and sell everything when a big buyer emerges.


nzx disclosure said there business is still on track everything honky dory so the above makes sense.

[kizame]

So in a nutshell,earnings growth has slowed a lot, so the share price and forward PE have reduced to reflect this.
It looks as though it has bottomed and may recover a wee bit before flat lining.
Without any new developments thats the way I see it,pie funds may be just betting on the business bakery.

[winner69]

Looking good today

That first hurdle of 3 bucks - looking like this week it'll be there

[NZSilver]

moving back up...

[bull....]

As more sellers paniced out of their positions, it created more downward pressure on price. This had the effect of both forcing other long positions to realize their loss before it got even bigger, and making potential buyers step out of the way as the downward pressure was so hard. The lack of buying meant sellers had an even greater effect on price than they would have during other periods.

At some point the panic selling stops, and buyers realize that the price has moved far from its rational value.

http://www.howwetrade.com/market-cap...w-to-identify/


Why it Matters:

There is no guaranteed way to spot capitulation before it happens or while it is happening. However, because capitulations generally reflect the final bottoming-out of a security, prices typically increase after a capitulation. Thus, capitulations can also signal the beginning of a turnaround

[BlackPeter]

Well, yes - it did move up a bit this morning, however on quite weak volume. A handful of small transactions ... could have been people reading this forum and hoping for the "bullish abandoned baby" to bounce.

Watching as an interesting example for TA application ... but not sure I'd see the company at this stage as investment ... well, not with my money anyway ;

[RupertBear]

Well, yes - it did move up a bit this morning, however on quite weak volume. A handful of small transactions ... could have been people reading this forum and hoping for the "bullish abandoned baby" to bounce.

Watching as an interesting example for TA application ... but not sure I'd see the company at this stage as investment ... well, not with my money anyway ;

The "abandoned baby" analogy does pull at my heart strings but I think I will leave it to others to come to its rescue ATM ... will be interesting to watch and see what happens thou