TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[carrom74]

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/ne...anuary-17..pdf

Thanks for the link Stoploss...Makes me wonder what changed their "long term positive outlook" into dumping about 4% of their holdings...scary days for TIL...

[winner69]

Perhaps they have been reading the hounds pontifications and have caught the same scent of trouble coming as I have. I enjoy trying to sniff around the next corner and am pretty sure I have this one right and it seems PIE funds can see my point of view too. $2 far more likely in the foreseeable future than $3 in my opinion. EPS after tax < 15 cps, remember the hound called it first.

So you reckon the PIE will be selling more over the next few weeks or so - if things are this bad even 5 million shares is just too many eh

[winner69]

Thanks for the link Stoploss...Makes me wonder what changed their "long term positive outlook" into dumping about 4% of their holdings...scary days for TIL...

Sold over 20% of their shares eh

The rest to be sold soon - maybe a Ceasing to be a SSH notice in next day or 2

[stoploss]

Thanks for the link Stoploss...Makes me wonder what changed their "long term positive outlook" into dumping about 4% of their holdings...scary days for TIL...

see my post 1995 , they are giving themselves an out on the guidance , next hiccup they will blame some sort of problem in China . Happy to put a pint on it .....

[muss1]

So you reckon the PIE will be selling more over the next few weeks or so - if things are this bad even 5 million shares is just too many eh

That's the question. Will we see the "no longer a substantial holder" notice. Selling 1m could be put down to anything really - better opportunity etc. But if they continue to sell then something must have changed substantially.

Lots of buyers picking up large parcels over recent times though. Now we know it's not Pie I wonder who it is. Other 2 funds still holding tight with a tick over 5%.

Tricky waters to navigate. Could be capitulation, could be a sign of things to come.

[carrom74]

see my post 1995 , they are giving themselves an out on the guidance , next hiccup they will blame some sort of problem in China . Happy to put a pint on it .....

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

[stoploss]

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

The announcement I am talking about was in the NZX Speeding ticket ( on the downside) enquiry .When you have that many shares it is not easy to sell . They publicly said in January they were adding shares and still liked the story , so recent update might have been the catalyst .

[Beagle]

So you reckon the PIE will be selling more over the next few weeks or so - if things are this bad even 5 million shares is just too many eh

Yes I am certain they will be looking for any reasonable opportunity to extricate themselves from this company. Pretty clear to me that sales per share, i.e. growth adjusted for the increased number of shares on issue compared to the same half last year is now negative and they don't want to invest in a growth company that's stopped growing...very bad for business.

[Beagle]

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

It was only in recent weeks that CVT really shocked the market with its savage downgrade blaming it on China. Takes a little time to add up the disappointing numbers and then a few days more to craft up the usual corporate spin that often comes with these sort of announcements. As stoploss has mentioned they have left the gate wide open for a downgrade something I am also happy to put a pint on happening.

[Thor]

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

Easier said than done when your holding is large relative to the liquidity of the stock. This is always the big risk for fund managers that invest in small caps - they can't easily exit their position. Individual investors have a huge advantage here.