TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[Blendy]

Yes is is sounding like a done deal, and maybe it is a better idea to sell out now and reinvest. Hopefully make some of the shortfall back in other places.

[BlackPeter]

You still not happy are you

Be grateful you’ll be getting at least $2.90 unless you already sold out.

May never have got that much without this deal

Lets put it that way:

Either the CITIC offer is fair and the company is really not worth more than they offer. In this case I am wondering, how to assess the performance of a board and management in a positive way while they significantly reduced shareholder value since the latest CR. Share indices went up significantly during this time ...

Or - the company is worth more than CITIC offers ... and in this case I am wondering why board and management are working much closer with the suitor than with the existing shareholders (who pay them). They even committed themselves to support the suitor no matter what. Wouldn't this be a violation of their obligations towards the shareholders?

Obviously - in theory the company could be as well worth less than the CITIC offer (this seems to be what you think). However - this would aggravate the questions around management and board performance and make you wonder as well why the contender with the better information (the suitor) would not notice that ...

No matter which one it is, I fail to see how any of these scenarios reflect in a positive way on the existing leadership team.

And sure - depending on which of the above scenarios you choose $2.90 might be the best deal shareholders can get, but I am still wondering why this would be a fair deal?

So - yes, maybe the coming reports provide some better information, but you are right - at the moment I don't like it. And just to clarify - this has nothing to do with my investment position. I bought in significantly below the current offer (though not as low as balance ...);

[trader_jackson]

Holders have been given a huge get out of jail free card today that is for sure. Management clearly don't believe TIL is worth more than $2.90... ironically, a year or so ago, I said TIL was worth around $3... That was when the share price was well into the 4's and my $3 statement was meet with vicious attacks by many other posters... looks like "in the end" I wasn't too far off the mark... still not a done deal yet I suppose.

A month and a half on from this post (and when the get out of jail free card was lavishly handed to holders) and the share price, accordingly, spiked and basically hasn't moved more than a cent or two (less than 1%) since then.
Management, who have yet to deliver this report or something that was 'due' a week or two ago, probably thanking the gods they were able to get $2.90 out of them as it seems literally nobody else is interested (not even a small pep/whisper/rumor/wink).
Looks like it is moving closer and closer to a done deal - a congratulations of sorts is in order to the holders, who should have done well sort of, over the long run anyways

[winner69]

BP

Remember the capital raising at $3.70 in June 2016 was essentially the means for Business Bakery to get $30m out. The other $20m plus the SPP went to Trilogy to repay debt they said — did they really need this extra capital anyway?

You would have to think that Business Bakery thought (deep down) that the share price was rather inflated and the opportunity to sell down just too hard to resist.

I gave Trilogy some of my cash in the SPP as share price was well over $4 at the time. Easy money at the time ....and it nearly hit $5 a month or so later. Middle to high $4.xx was a good time to sell.

Trilogy has been hyped up growth story for a while. Everybody believed it could no wrong and riches would be showered upon the believers ...until that infamous announcement just before the 2016 AGM and it seems to have been downhill since.

The hype in the commentaries and presentations have never been backed up by actual (financial) performance since then. Even the latest ‘guidance’ is rather wishy washy but many still believe the hype and doesn’t a 1,000 doors opening sound fantastic.

My reading over the last couple of years has been that major shareholders have wanted out and move in mainly because they believe they have taken the company as far as they can and that meeting ‘market expectations’ would be a long hard haul and no guarantee of success. The signs have been there for a while

Trilogy was never worth $4, let alone close to $5, during that really hyped up growth period. And since they have acquired things and underlying growth slowed it probably isn’t worth $3

Trilogy been good to me over the years from following sentiment on the way up but trusting my interpretation of what is really being said in company announcements as a signal when to sell out ...backed up by solid fundamental analysis

Have to say $2.10 was great buying ....even my mate Balance agrees with me there





Still

[LAC]

I sold out once the business gave fluffy forecasts but I will be staying away from this management/board etc in future, the fact that they did a $3.70 SPP and now saying $2.90 is a good deal doesnt sit well with me.
They took Shareholders for a ride in my opinion. The business Bakery was no surprise to me as that is what they do....hope for a buyer of the companies that they invest in (good on them, at least they throw $ in the business when needed), I would be careful in future though with them being major holders as it gives others little options when selling out.

[winner69]

I sold out once the business gave fluffy forecasts but I will be staying away from this management/board etc in future, the fact that they did a $3.70 SPP and now saying $2.90 is a good deal doesnt sit well with me.
They took Shareholders for a ride in my opinion. The business Bakery was no surprise to me as that is what they do....hope for a buyer of the companies that they invest in (good on them, at least they throw $ in the business when needed), I would be careful in future though with them being major holders as it gives others little options when selling out.

So true LAC but Business Bakery boys been good to investors over the years ....but you need to read the signs eh

[winner69]

It is not really management that set the share price so you can't really blame them for this supposed wealth destruction can you

Punters bid the price up to $3.70 / nearly $5 knowing full well what the risks were and were unrealisticly over optmistic

In the meantime management ensured sales kept growing and conti ued to make decent profits ....but onviously didn't try hard enough

[trader_jackson]

Trilogy has been hyped up growth story for a while. Everybody believed it could no wrong and riches would be showered upon the believers ...until that infamous announcement just before the 2016 AGM and it seems to have been downhill since.

Not everyone winner69... just those who couldn't realize the products TIL were selling (what really makes or breaks any business long term) wern't actually unique what so ever and therefore eventually it was always going to stall
That $2.10 was good buying

[RupertBear]

Yes is is sounding like a done deal, and maybe it is a better idea to sell out now and reinvest. Hopefully make some of the shortfall back in other places.

Jeepers everytime I go to sell out that dam FOMO incase they get a better offer kicks in and I chicken out!

[percy]

Jeepers everytime I go to sell out that dam FOMO incase they get a better offer kicks in and I chicken out!

They will only go up if you sell.??!!..lol.