TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[golden city]

Looks like the only one buying is pie fund

[muss1]

Til is a very volatile stock. It is long term prospects is good. But going too far at the moment

I don't follow your logic at all: TIL SP has gone too far at the moment, but it's long term prospects are good (which is what us mere market mortals try to value companies on) and pie are buying more to cover losses on another stock, but they are the only one buying. Are they buying more because they think the SP will go down?

[boysy]

Sellers remorse perhaps

[kizame]

Til is a very volatile stock. It is long term prospects is good. But going too far at the moment

Wrong! Sorry but if you have a look at a chart of TIL you will see there is nothing volatile about it,in fact one of the smoothest uptrends out there at the moment.

Right! Long term prospects do look very good.

Who knows! How long it will continue its current trajectory,I'm just happy it is!

[stoploss]

I see it pie fund try to push up return % to cover up their loss in intueri

Golden City Pie Funds quit their holding in December please read the following link . I have nothing to do with Pie apart from being invested in some of their funds.
However I personally think you owe them an apology for that statement , you are accusing them of market manipulation imo,
Before you post b/s please do some research .... A lot of tall poppies re Pie Funds around , don't see a lot of people in the NZ and ASX stock picking competition matching their returns ..... Rant over

http://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/new...eid=21d817ba59

[Snow Leopard]

I consider that the future of Trilogy in terms of year by year profits, cash flow etc etc is highly uncertain and so I currently do my valuations based on the, hopefully, conservative assumption that the expected great growth of this year will not be repeated.

I thus have this 'curve' of profits which reaches a 'plateau' in FY2027 where annual profits are, if you discount them back to the here and now, $0.271 per share.

Of course there are any number of possibilities either side (or both sides, the future rarely conforms to simple models) for Trilogy's next few years.

I would prefer that my projections turn out to have been pessimistic but that uncertainty is very real and it needs a margin of safety.

PS. The tiger model says that TIL will be 'worth' (the current) $3.27 in late 2018 .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[stevevai1983]

Let's talk about potential Chinese market.
During the past 10 years if any company made some popular products for our Chinese people, then that company's earning and profit will continue to grow rapidly for a long time and SP easily increase 10 times: ten-bagger stock.
Even Japaneses company UNIQLO SP increased so much while Nikkei index was doomed for about 20 years.
So if Trilogy makes some process for Asian market, particular Chinese market then it surely can sustain its fast growth rate for a long period of time.

Disc: Happy shareholder

[boysy]

Not sure China is a market being sought after at this stage. Clearly it makes sense to grow marketshare in Australia with plenty of scope to concentrate there for the next few years.

[Well Endowed]

Agreed boysy, Australian consumers align more to trilogy's environmental principles/philosophy, and given the figures in the recent presentation there is certainly scope to grow market share.

I'd guess developing the Asian/Chinese market would require a totally different strategy, given a large percentage believe in traditional medicines and ingredients, sometimes at the expense of endangered animals and dubious practices. It'd be a tougher nut to crack.

[LAC]

And its still going up....crazy