TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

**golden city** · 16-02-2016, 04:34 PM

Pie fund can not buy it forever

**boysy** · 16-02-2016, 05:23 PM

Albeit on 1000 share volume to put in perspective

**golden city** · 16-02-2016, 07:57 PM

It has to be come down to realistic value

**boysy** · 16-02-2016, 08:00 PM

Realistic value that's a rather subjective assertion. Fact is very few shares are changing hands neither buyers or sellers are capitulating at this stage until a trading update is provided it's hard to say if it's under or overvalued

**muss1** · 16-02-2016, 10:21 PM

Golden city, you have given no reasons as to why you think it's overvalued. Meanwhile others have posted their reasoning. Why is it so overvalued?

I'll go first, very briefly. Guidance has this FY up to 14cps at the top end. Most signs are pointing towards a beat, but we will wait and see about that. This EPS is including expenses from an increased sales push which reduces near term profit. The next few years have further growth from Australia looking promising, and if any one of the infant markets lifts off then wow. The next few FYs will likely see modest EPS growth up into the 20s. At 300, the forward PE is 20. This is for a company that will most likely double its eps on last year. It also isn't a particularly demanding multiple going forward with the potential growth avenues looking plentiful.

Your turn

**golden city** · 16-02-2016, 10:36 PM

normally I don't give reasons., valuation normal on my head.., to given you a reason .., even they have good growth but also we haven't see too much from the cs acquisition yet with all debts involve.., so need to taking some account to the risk ...as well.., earning at 14c.pa.., at pe 18 to 20 is more reasonable., also this years super growth is on the hot news of kate., it is not and unlikely repeat super growth every year. next year might be modest ..my valuation is at 2.60 more normal.. at present .given at 3.30 is a bit too high. for now.., might be suitable at the end of this year

**muss1** · 16-02-2016, 10:44 PM

I forgot to add th CS synergies we will get from distribution and also the doors that will open up.

In my opinion Kate would have more effect on the UK which we haven't seen yet, so time will tell. But yes we've had super growth, but the fact is we only need moderate growth from here to achieve decent eps growth.

At 2.60 I would be a buyer again, but I think the market will deservedly apply a PE higher than that due to the prospects. If you are right, then exciting buying ahead!

**golden city** · 16-02-2016, 10:51 PM

i have loading heaps til before between 45c to 1.60..., my initial target was 2.60 ...so after achieved my target.., i have slowly offloading them all