TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[muss1]

I've crunched some numbers.

Assuming growth in line with segment for natural products (21-26%), ecoya growth 10-15% and some margin expansion.... I get 26cps for FY17. Now I feel this case is conservative if revenue only grows by the above, especially for natural products.

That includes full year of CS&Co (2cps in addition to FY16), 1.5cps from CS&Co having the trilogy contract.

My bull case is a bit more exciting as additional revenue is hard to estimate, but adds up pretty quickly.

Happy to discuss or answer any questions about my numbers. Cheers

[noodles]

I've crunched some numbers.

Assuming growth in line with segment for natural products (21-26%), ecoya growth 10-15% and some margin expansion.... I get 26cps for FY17. Now I feel this case is conservative if revenue only grows by the above, especially for natural products.

That includes full year of CS&Co (2cps in addition to FY16), 1.5cps from CS&Co having the trilogy contract.

My bull case is a bit more exciting as additional revenue is hard to estimate, but adds up pretty quickly.

Happy to discuss or answer any questions about my numbers. Cheers

You are probably a little more aggressive than me. I estimate EBITDA around $24.5m, eps=25c
This puts TIL on a EV/EBITDA=11.8
Compare this to BWX with an EV/EBITDA=15.5. So more upside from here as BWX is the best comparison on the ASX.

The new acquisition has not been considered.

Winner, I think your concerns about Aussie growth are warranted, but we need to be aware that 1h15 was a low base. 2H15 was a lot more robust. I think Australia must have had a lot more marketing spend than NZ.

[percy]

EPS.
2015.......0.07cents
2016..........15cents ..114%increase on 2015.
Now we are concentrating on 2017
Kiora is on 22.5 cents a very modest 50% on 2016's ,15cents.
Noodles and Winner 69 are on 25cents a devilish 66.66% increase on 2016's .15 cents.
Muss1 is on .26 cents which is a healthy 73.3% increase on 2016's .15 cents.
When the growth rate is twice the PE I am sure there is room for the sp to continue its upward trajectory.

[winner69]

As I mentioned before the market took ages to attribute any value to CS Dist. I think the share price was around 150/160 a month after the announcement which wasn't much higher than prior to it.

With annualised expected ebitda of ~$10m that's worth at least a $1 for the share price.

The meteoric rise in the share price over the last six months or so is a combination of recognising what CS is worth along with the hype about growth in Skincare products.

(Still believe the Ecoya stuff is a distraction but heck seeing they got it it might contribute a little but wont be 'making' the company)

[winner69]

Noodles or anybody - can you explain these -

Presentations say EBITDA is $16.3m but Segment Analysis says EBITDA is $18.8m - is the $2.55m unallocated Admin costs or something?

But the Income Statement says EBITDA is $15.3m, $$1m lower than the presentation number. Is this the $1.0m of one off costs they talked about.

should have listened to the analyst briefing eh. Be good to know the answers if you know, otherwise a call to Lewer is in order.

I don't like announcements/ presentations that don't reconcile to the Accounts without an explanation. I couldn't find any published dicuments.

Updating DCF on hold in meantime.

[noodles]

Noodles or anybody - can you explain these -

Presentations say EBITDA is $16.3m but Segment Analysis says EBITDA is $18.8m - is the $2.55m unallocated Admin costs or something?

But the Income Statement says EBITDA is $15.3m, $$1m lower than the presentation number. Is this the $1.0m of one off costs they talked about.

should have listened to the analyst briefing eh. Be good to know the answers if you know, otherwise a call to Lewer is in order.

I don't like announcements/ presentations that don't reconcile to the Accounts without an explanation. I couldn't find any published dicuments.

Updating DCF on hold in meantime.

pg.23 of the financial statements is the place to look. Not sure where you got $15.3m?
Of the $1m in one-offs, only the acquisition costs are treated separately. I think the rest are hidden in Admin costs?

[winner69]

pg.23 of the financial statements is the place to look. Not sure where you got $15.3m?
Of the $1m in one-offs, only the acquisition costs are treated separately. I think the rest are hidden in Admin costs?

thanks mate

The other $1m (I was missing) are those gains on financial instruments and contingent remeasurement consideration items

[vin]

Ouch, 5.5% today. Under $4. What's going on

[Jinx]

Ouch, 5.5% today. Under $4. What's going on

Profit. Taking.

Happy to watch it tank for however long it needs to, will only bounce as we keep getting market updates

[reacher]

Profit. Taking.

Happy to watch it tank for however long it needs to, will only bounce as we keep getting market updates

Yup, management cashing in too I imagine.