TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[vin]

Mmmm expected I guess, maybe an opportunity to topup.

[sb9]

Large price movements are what you get with tightly held stock like this one...

[blobbles]

Clearly some were expecting a short term bounce from the annual report and are getting out when it didn't happen. Happy to see them go!

[Beagle]

The companies future outlook reads as 'blowed if we know what is going to happen' to me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold too few

Will take confident strides in dynamic consumer sectors. Not the sort of language we're used too is it ! I prefer defined targets...must be the bean counter in me.
Good growth company but I prefer CVT with its defined target of doubling sales and proven benefits of manuka honey... still one supposes that a bob each way isn't a silly idea either.

[muss1]

Too much thinking required to identify what potential sales might be next year? Must be too expensive. Do your research quickly before the brokers clear the air too much

[silverblizzard888]

After results came out and working out real growth rate, even at 50% growth for the next 3 years my fair value for the market cap would be around $236 million for now or about $3.81 per share. The price was anticipating a lot more and probably a forecast too, but it seems the uncertainty puts more risk in it. Though it is a good business, but even good businesses can reach an overvalue point.

*Just my thoughts on a valuation, I'm sure many here have different ways they value and end up with different numbers too.

[Jinx]

After results came out and working out real growth rate, even at 50% growth for the next 3 years my fair value for the market cap would be around $236 million for now or about $3.81 per share. The price was anticipating a lot more and probably a forecast too, but it seems the uncertainty puts more risk in it. Though it is a good business, but even good businesses can reach an overvalue point.

*Just my thoughts on a valuation, I'm sure many here have different ways they value and end up with different numbers too.

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

Edit 2: More numbers
Revenue growing by 50% each year for 3 years = 280m revenue in three years. I'd be smiling at that

[muss1]

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

Yes agreed... What's behind your numbers SB? Percy posted his summary of other posters EPS for next year, would be interesting to see where you fit in

[silverblizzard888]

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

(This is working out todays current fair value, as time passes of course it will be worth more by next year)

My value model is based off sales and growth. I broke up the 83 million revenue. 55 million for Trilogy, Goodness and Ecoya and 28 million for CS&Co.
55 million growing at 50% is about 185 million compounded for 3 years.
CS & Co was 28 million for 7.5 months. Adjust to work out 12 months is about 38.5 million. I think this company will only grow at about 10% for the next 3 years compounded. Gives about 51 million for that in sales.

*so that might provide a bit more clarity that I didn't do a straight 50% growth on all sales. I think CS & co given they are a distribution company won't be growing like the rest of the business.

The general view for growth companies is to value what their sales worth is in 3 years or 5 depending on their expansion potential, I've gone with 3 years as retail products just start to diminish growth after a while. Add the two numbers together and you have 236 million market as fair value for today.


**If they achieve 50% growth next year then my market cap value for them will be 334 million in 12 months time or $5.40 per share.

[muss1]

Thanks for breaking down your thinking. What is your fair value in a years time? My growth assumptions lead to 26cps next year, which leads me to something significantly higher than $4 one year on. Obviously we invest based on an expected SP appreciation over time, so fair value today with a certain amount of growth can still be a good investment when considered what fair value is in a years time.