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Thread: Skyline

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    Not surprised with todays only surprised that it took so long, " you cannot push water uphill with a rake " !
    I can only say its a surprise that these shares are selling for what they are, What are the asset backing of them ?

  2. #122
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Thanks Joshuatree. I'll credit Beagle and Snoopy if it goes right and put on my big boy pants if it does not work. The way I think about it investing is taking a long term view. I financed it by selling a chunk of my Blis (bought at an average of below one cent) also got into PAZ at less than 6 and Syft at diddly squat when they were in it donkey deep. I've had my share of failures, but they never loose more than 100%. I suspect my Skyline will be a hold forever. There is an irrational, but worthy feeling of owning a business that you can support. I'm hoping that Beagle will be lured back to the Skyline Buffet with a few mates (but eat the potatoes and not the prawns)
    LOL I've got to say its one of the best buffet's in N.Z. and then there's the view ! Good luck and well done on PAZ at 6 cents.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #123
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    13,500 Skyline shares traded at $18.35 per share today - quite an uplift for the brave sole(s) who purchased at $10.00 and $12.00 per share in mid March.
    Last edited by Southern Lad; 11-06-2020 at 09:51 PM.

  4. #124
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    Annual report for those interested:

    https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperc...pdf?1596398719

  5. #125
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    An interesting read. I think those paying $17 a share are incredibly "brave". No question the earnings of this company will be dramatically affected in the years ahead and I seriously doubt the share price is properly accounting for that.

    One wonders how many years the Queenstown gondola expansion will be put on hold for ? Worth noting this was originally proposed at a cost of $60m many years ago in an environment of rapid growth but has since blown out to more than four times that figure at circa $250m and the world seems to have dramatically changed....perhaps for many, many years to come.

    Page 13 is pretty interesting. There's a glaring error in the 2019 comparative figures showing total equity at a completely erroneous figure, something I would be deeply embarrassed about for a small private client and yet the directors signed off on this statement of financial position for a public company...did they read it ? Maybe I should be gracious enough to suggest it was an error with the printers ?

    At least their liquidity position looks sound, assuming its stated correctly and there's not more basic errors in there somewhere.

    I'm not in any hurry to visit Queenstown again but do miss the buffet at the top of the Gondola

    Happy to leave this opportunity to others and good luck !
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-08-2020 at 01:37 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #126
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    Skyline has put its Queenstown Hill gondola rebuilt project on hold:

    https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queens...s-being-paused

    Shows that Skyline has serious concerns on the tourism rebuild once the borders open/vaccine is available. Delaying misses the opportunity to close while there is little patronage and also runs the risk of further price escalation. Sounds like they have already committed to the Gondola system purchase given the talk of storing it in containers until a decision is made to restart the project.

    O’Connells pavilion rebuilt carrying on, not that they had much choice given they had already gutted it.

    Overseas luge new projects had previously been placed on hold.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    An interesting read. I think those paying $17 a share are incredibly "brave". No question the earnings of this company will be dramatically affected in the years ahead and I seriously doubt the share price is properly accounting for that.

    One wonders how many years the Queenstown gondola expansion will be put on hold for ? Worth noting this was originally proposed at a cost of $60m many years ago in an environment of rapid growth but has since blown out to more than four times that figure at circa $250m and the world seems to have dramatically changed....perhaps for many, many years to come.

    Page 13 is pretty interesting. There's a glaring error in the 2019 comparative figures showing total equity at a completely erroneous figure, something I would be deeply embarrassed about for a small private client and yet the directors signed off on this statement of financial position for a public company...did they read it ? Maybe I should be gracious enough to suggest it was an error with the printers ?

    At least their liquidity position looks sound, assuming its stated correctly and there's not more basic errors in there somewhere.

    I'm not in any hurry to visit Queenstown again but do miss the buffet at the top of the Gondola

    Happy to leave this opportunity to others and good luck !
    I visited Queenstown last week. Interestingly for the middle of ski season it was very quiet. Restaurants were doing their utmost to undercut competitors and even had people trying to cajole you into their premises for lunch and dinner. Went out for a pub dinner on Friday night (during level2) and was astounded to see that there were tables free and no need to book etc. Every accommodation outlet had a "vacancy" sign up etc etc. To be fair I have not seen Queenstown during normal times so had little to compare but my partner did say it was quieter than normal. For a holiday it was quite nice. Traffic flowed extremely well and out accommodation was affordable.

  8. #128
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Plenty of potential for things to go wrong Snoopy. The initial capex projection for the Gondola was $60m quickly revised two months later to $100m without any explanation..yes that's not a typo, the estimated cost in 2016 went up 67% in two months without a word. We all know constructions costs have ballooned badly since then, (what other plausible explanation is there for FBU losing close to ~ $200m on a the ~ $400m fixed price construction of the convention center ?) Factor into the recent environment court ruling that they must supply a multi level carpark to meet the extra demand for car parking caused by the expansion, I could not find a car park for love nor money when down there twice in the last 12 months) and its fair to say that I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall when the directors get their quotes for the construction of this revamp. Won't surprise me in the slightest to see the final cost well north of $200m when its finally completed...and then there's the disruption to this key business during the very lengthy redevelopment process.

    I can't help wondering if a far more modest expansion would have been more appropriate and stick the price northwards quite a LOT to dampen down rampant demand. ...
    Thanks for your feedback blackcap.
    From November 2017. I gave the board this advice for free

    In my view the last traded price of $17 does not in any way accurately reflect the headwinds faced by this company that are likely to prevail for years.
    I see fair value a very long way south of there.
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-08-2020 at 10:13 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #129
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    Hi Beagle, I'm thinking about going to the AGM. Do you have any burning questions? I had also noticed the "equity" issue on page 13, but wondered if it was my lack of accounting skills and not a mistake. Should the auditor have picked that up?
    It appears that they will continue with tree felling and rock work at the base, but I think they are going to delay most of their redevelopment. Cheers

  10. #130
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Hi Arthur,

    What are they going to do if Covid charges tourism forever ? If we eventually get a vaccine that's maybe 50% effective people will still be substaintially less inclined to travel, especially long haul, won't they ? How did a project that was going to cost $60m ever get to about four times that price at about $250m in just a few short years and what might the eventual total cost be if it ever goes ahead ? Is there some price point where its simply not worth proceeding with ? What if in 3-5 years when the project starts proper, the projected cost has doubled to $500m ? Those might be good conversation starters at the annual meeting. I'd love to be a fly on the wall if you drop those questions on them
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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