sharetrader
Page 6 of 17 FirstFirst ... 234567891016 ... LastLast
Results 51 to 60 of 169

Thread: Skyline

  1. #51
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    In the absence of any other replies I will weigh in again as I am definitely interested in the possibility of taking a stake this company.
    I really wonder why they don't list it on the NZX ? Market cap is well over $500m so would potentially go into the NZX50. The $100m expansion of the Queenstown gondola is a classic case in point as to one of the benefits. They could do a bond issue to fund this at say 6%. An instant 2-3 expansion in PE would reward all shareholders and improve liquidity for any of the large stakeholders who might be considering diversifying some of their investment elsewhere. I don't think maintaining the low cost listing on unlisted is really in shareholders best overall interests.

    I must do some further research on this when time allows as its getting closer to my buy price.

    Company has released a five year summary which is useful. Shows that historically the company has traded on a trailing PE of just 10, long run over many years. I presume this figure is based on the earnings inclusive of property revaluations but I will need to do some more work on older annual reports to validate this.

    Other than that what we have here is a clear downtrend as alluded to in my previous post. Perhaps shareholders are really worried about the huge expansion at the Queenstown gondola happening around the same time as a proposed new gondola that may come to fruition in the years ahead ? Have they found a new CEO yet ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-02-2017 at 12:01 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #52
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,289

    Default

    Do they have the necessary spread of shareholdings to meet NZX listing requirements?

  3. #53
    Legend
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Wellington, New Zealand
    Posts
    5,076

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Do they have the necessary spread of shareholdings to meet NZX listing requirements?
    From the 2016 Annual:
    SHAREHOLDING STATISTICS
    Distribution of Shareholders and Shareholdings
    Size of Holding Holders Shares %
    0 19,999 595 4,318,224 12.65%
    20,000 69,999 120 4,199,610 12.30%
    70,000 199,999 33 3,549,765 10.40%
    200,000 499,999 18 4,758,082 13.94%
    500,000 + 16 17,311,698 50.71%
    ___ _________ _____
    Total 782 34,137,379 100%

  4. #54
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Easy enough to attract lots of new shareholders to this growth company on a listing to the NZX.
    I think the minimum shareholding of 4,000 shares is definitely an impediment for many investors. I for one am reluctant to have circa $80K tied up in a company that is only semi liquid.
    Had a dig around to see if there's anything more current on the proposed other Gondola in Queenstown. Can't see anything more current than this
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11548441
    $100m a fair bit for Skyline to spend on redevelopment of their gondola and related facilities when there's another proposed gondola in the wings.
    Maybe a less ambitious project along with a price rise for customers is a better way to cope with foreseeable growth ?
    I guess the question is could that $100m generate superior returns invested elsewhere ? For instance their latest $20m luge seems to be off to a flying start.
    http://www.unlisted.co.nz/uPublic/do...ith%20logo.pdf
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-02-2017 at 06:11 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #55
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    204

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    In the absence of any other replies I will weigh in again as I am definitely interested in the possibility of taking a stake this company.
    I really wonder why they don't list it on the NZX ? Market cap is well over $500m so would potentially go into the NZX50. The $100m expansion of the Queenstown gondola is a classic case in point as to one of the benefits. They could do a bond issue to fund this at say 6%. An instant 2-3 expansion in PE would reward all shareholders and improve liquidity for any of the large stakeholders who might be considering diversifying some of their investment elsewhere. I don't think maintaining the low cost listing on unlisted is really in shareholders best overall interests.

    I must do some further research on this when time allows as its getting closer to my buy price.

    Company has released a five year summary which is useful. Shows that historically the company has traded on a trailing PE of just 10, long run over many years. I presume this figure is based on the earnings inclusive of property revaluations but I will need to do some more work on older annual reports to validate this.

    Other than that what we have here is a clear downtrend as alluded to in my previous post. Perhaps shareholders are really worried about the huge expansion at the Queenstown gondola happening around the same time as a proposed new gondola that may come to fruition in the years ahead ? Have they found a new CEO yet ?
    yeah same

    I'm at the financial position where I can take a on a few alternate type investments, i would be keen to either invest in skyline or christchurch adventure park (they are doing a 2nd phase of capital raising), so that my mountain bike trips will be (partially at least) tax deductible...I'm doing site visits of my investments!

  6. #56
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Hounds been digging some more. Interestingly the decline in share price from about $25 late last year began about the time the CEO resigned, (was pushed ?) but also coincided with another significant event.
    In the August 2016 press release regarding the proposed redevelopment of facilities at Queenstown the cost was estimated at $60m.
    In the October 2016 update the cost was revised to $100m without any explanation of the 67% increase ?
    I would suggest my concerns expressed above about the level of capex for this redevelopment is also a serious concern the market holds. I think its poor form to put an estimate of the development cost into the market and then revise it up that much just two months later ! I doubt that impressed many shareholders.
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-02-2017 at 04:35 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #57
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    59

    Default

    March 17 annual report is out - lots of positives in there - no debt
    An nzme article released about how Qtwn expansion consent is likely.
    CEO replaced
    MBIE have come out showing holiday spend in NZ is up 4% yoy 30 June - would be good to understand the demograph of Skyline customers so MBIE's analysis could be more helpful
    Korea development has shown its worth getting another site in there - I've heard that area of Korea gets a crazy amount of domestic tourism.
    From my last post the THL PE ratio (as a very rough comparison) has increased significantly, similar impact for SKYLINE?

    Just got to admire from a distance due to the ~$100k minimum shareholding. You can't margin lend, and I can't find any managed funds with significant exposure to this sexy company.

  8. #58
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    EPS stripping out property revaluations was $1.49 which at $24 puts them on a PE of 16.1. Annual report contains strongly worded warning regarding potential for disruption during the lengthy construction phase of the expanded facility at Queenstown and warns profit for the next five years may not be the same as for the last five years, Ouch !
    THL currently trading on a historical PE of 18.5 at $4.45 but due to report shortly.
    I think once THL report they'll be back on a similar PE and taking into account the profit warning and intense capex for Skyline including the need for a new multi story car park (not costed but I assume this is additional to the $100M estimated capex which might have gone up even more again ?)
    The whole slow disclosure and sort of old boys network thing at Skyline and lack of being listed on the NZX which is frankly quite absurd for a company with a market cap of ~ $800m leaves me pretty cold now having pontificated over it for a while now. No idea how good the new CEO is, not much about him in the annual report...I suppose if you were one of the elite insiders you would have got a more thorough run-down on his credentials. Too much about how this company is run is opaque. No longer interested and PE isn't cheap considering the profit warning.
    http://www.unlisted.co.nz/uPublic/do...ort%202017.pdf
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-08-2017 at 11:09 AM. Reason: Add link to annual report
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #59
    Guru
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    2,993

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    EPS stripping out property revaluations was $1.49 which at $24 puts them on a PE of 16.1. Annual report contains strongly worded warning regarding potential for disruption during the lengthy construction phase of the expanded facility at Queenstown and warns profit for the next five years may not be the same as for the last five years, Ouch !
    THL currently trading on a historical PE of 18.5 at $4.45 but due to report shortly.
    I think once THL report they'll be back on a similar PE and taking into account the profit warning and intense capex for Skyline including the need for a new multi story car park (not costed but I assume this is additional to the $100M estimated capex which might have gone up even more again ?)
    The whole slow disclosure and sort of old boys network thing at Skyline and lack of being listed on the NZX which is frankly quite absurd for a company with a market cap of ~ $800m leaves me pretty cold now having pontificated over it for a while now. No idea how good the new CEO is, not much about him in the annual report...I suppose if you were one of the elite insiders you would have got a more thorough run-down on his credentials. Too much about how this company is run is opaque. No longer interested and PE isn't cheap considering the profit warning.
    Thanks Beagle.Could be worth putting on the watch list over the next few years.Maybe some weakness coming up similar to SKC

  10. #60
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Thanks Beagle.Could be worth putting on the watch list over the next few years.Maybe some weakness coming up similar to SKC
    You're welcome and yes that's pretty much how I see it too. Anyone's guess what the true cost of the major expansion at Queenstown including the Environment court mandated multi story carpark will eventually cost and the disruptive impact on the business but keep in mind in terms of the latter their Queenstown operation is very much like Sky City's Auckland operation, its the real breadwinner of the company results so my risk radar suggests the costs will be a lot higher than the $60m originally touted, very, very quickly changed to $100m and obviously now considerably north of that and the disruptive impact could be very significant.
    P.S. I think the Environment court were spot on to insist they build a substantial new carpark, car parking around the Gondola base is a real nightmare now and downstream car parking nightmare spreads right through Queenstown so its been long overdue that this company shoulders its fair share of the cost of this infrastructure.
    Long term I expect this will be another profit center for the company as I'm sure they'll be asking patrons to pay for parking.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-08-2017 at 11:19 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •