sharetrader
Page 6 of 7 FirstFirst ... 234567 LastLast
Results 101 to 120 of 123

Thread: Skyline

  1. #101
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,538

    Default

    They might as well put their ultra expensive ~ $250m Queenstown development on ice. Its going to be many years before tourism is back to anything like what it was in my opinion. If they stretch themselves too much with massive debt at present they run the very real risk of going broke. This is not a time for bravery in the tourism industry, its a time to batten down the hatches and concentrating on surviving the greatest worldwide recession since the great depression of 1929-late 1930's.

    If the directors don't understand this and proceed, good luck to them and the company, they're going to need it. Disc: No stake and no interest in buying one.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-04-2020 at 09:11 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #102
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,588

    Default

    A flood of Auzies on ski packages this year?

  3. #103
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    252

    Default

    I think that if they pull the right strings they would get a very sweet debt package. Domestic tourism is about 57% of the market, add in Aussie and a few places like South Korea and we could be back to 2015 numbers. Skyline made a profit every year I could research, they sailed through the GFC (I do not expect them to make a profit this year). Disclosure, just bought some.

  4. #104
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,538

    Default

    I think you've underestimated how many Kiwi's will return this year, (I won't be for one). $250m is truckload of debt given the size of their balance sheet. Amazing how that project blew out from initial estimate of $60m just a few years ago ! I can't help wondering what it really costs to complete when its finally built ?

    Hope you're not counting on any profit in FY21 either...and good luck, I think you'll need it !
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-04-2020 at 05:41 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #105
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,588

    Default

    I don't need luck as I don't own any

  6. #106
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    3,224

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I think you've underestimated how many Kiwi's will return this year, (I won't be for one). $250m is truckload of debt given the size of their balance sheet. Amazing how that project blew out from initial estimate of $60m just a few years ago ! I can't help wondering what it really costs to complete when its finally built ?

    Hope you're not counting on any profit in FY21 either...and good luck, I think you'll need it !
    Not as bad as the Auck harbour bridge from the initial $50,000,000 to a now estimated $350,000,000 and they haven't even confirmed on the plans.

  7. #107
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,058

    Default

    I was a bit interested in seeing what the segment revenue was, and where they made their money. $71m operating profit 2019.

    Thought the Chch Casino would be a bit more profitable, but only about 1/4 of revenue ($60m) and operating profit was only $10m. Hmmmm Not really going to carry them through. Accounts for around 1/3 of their staff. Obviously shutdown now, but not really reliant on tourists so much. Are casion's recession resilient to a degree?

    Tourism is about 2/3rd of their incoming (rest is property investment and all other segments). Accounts for the lions share of their operating profit - $57m last year. About 75% of their tourism revenue in NZ, rest off-shore.

    Total Equity approx. $430m with no long term debt. Would be a (very) gutsy call to do an expansion in Qtown now - but possibility to save money while construction on a downer and not doing work when busy with tourists.

    Some of those assets are very strong assets and effectively irreplaceable, generating good returns ordinarily. But would be a throw in the bottom draw share for the moment. Still even at a price target of say $10, minimum shareholding of 4,000 means $40k.....

  8. #108
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,588

    Default

    NZ tourism spending
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_New_Zealand
    " International and domestic tourism contributes, in total, NZ$34 billion to New Zealand's economy every year.[2]
    Domestic tourist spending of NZ$20.2 billion a year still[when?] exceeds that of international visitors (NZ$11.8 billion).
    By far the highest number of New Zealand's tourists (about 45%) come from Australia due to close proximity and relations.(NZ$6.3m)"

  9. #109
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,058

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    NZ tourism spending
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_New_Zealand
    " International and domestic tourism contributes, in total, NZ$34 billion to New Zealand's economy every year.[2]
    Domestic tourist spending of NZ$20.2 billion a year still[when?] exceeds that of international visitors (NZ$11.8 billion).
    By far the highest number of New Zealand's tourists (about 45%) come from Australia due to close proximity and relations.(NZ$6.3m)"
    Tourism industry (and especially the ski industry) would be really keen to get a trans-tasman bubble going. But we need them more than what they need us....

  10. #110
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,058

  11. #111
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,538

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Very pleased I decided to avoid this one back in 2017 in the $25 range. Some very difficult years ahead. They should just scrap their $250m Queenstown expansion plans. Tourism volumes are likely to stay low for many, many years.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #112
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    252

    Default

    Truth be told Beagle your analysis helped me pull the trigger when the price dropped 50%. I reckon taking a five year view it is a safer bet than Auckland Airport. Here is my guess - within six months Korea and Canada will be back to near normal. Their Queenstown, Singapore and Rotorua operations will be at about 75% of the recent peak. Christchurch Casino will be about 90%. The Queenstown hotel will be bundled with Gondola packages to keep up occupancy rates. Sheffield will go ahead but the NZ projects will be right sized (unless the Local and Central Governments view the upgrades as infrastructure and reduce the redtape)

  13. #113
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,538

    Default

    To be clear, at no point have I considered this stock worth buying otherwise I would have actioned it myself. I see the rebulbing of tourism very differently to you Arthur but I wish you well and hope I am wrong. I wouldn't own AIA, AIR, SKC or THL either.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #114
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,909

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    To be clear, at no point have I considered this stock worth buying otherwise I would have actioned it myself. I see the rebulbing of tourism very differently to you Arthur but I wish you well and hope I am wrong.
    Beagle's worst fears confirmed?

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/skyli...ing-staff-half

    Half of all staff gone. But pig headedly going ahead with the $200m gondola upgrade in Queenstown. I must say I was surprised to see the staff cuts extend to Korea where I thought a path out of the Covid crisis was becoming clearer.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  15. #115
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,058

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Beagle's worst fears confirmed?

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/skyli...ing-staff-half

    Half of all staff gone. But pig headedly going ahead with the $200m gondola upgrade in Queenstown. I must say I was surprised to see the staff cuts extend to Korea where I thought a path out of the Covid crisis was becoming clearer.

    SNOOPY
    But asking for Govt infrastructure funding to assist with their expansion...…!!

    Probably a telling case in terms of jobs/employment. The 600+ staff are losing their jobs from when the wage subsidy runs out. So circa 6 weeks through, 6 weeks to go.

  16. #116
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    3,224

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    Yes double or triple wammy , cost over runs, tourist drop off and constant increasing over heads, not a good mix !!
    Not surprised with todays only surprised that it took so long, " you cannot push water uphill with a rake " !

  17. #117
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,058

    Default

    Ngai Tahu Tourism today announced they were cutting their staff from 348 to 39! Most finishing in June or July.

    Most of their businesses are going into "hibernation", including the Shotover Jet. That will be a killer for Qtown, being so iconic.

  18. #118
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    7,256

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Ngai Tahu Tourism today announced they were cutting their staff from 348 to 39! Most finishing in June or July.

    Most of their businesses are going into "hibernation", including the Shotover Jet. That will be a killer for Qtown, being so iconic.
    Yes just brutal .... worse ever outcome pure nightmare for the likes of Qutown jobs
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  19. #119
    Update Ready To Install
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    8,938

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Truth be told Beagle your analysis helped me pull the trigger when the price dropped 50%. I reckon taking a five year view it is a safer bet than Auckland Airport. Here is my guess - within six months Korea and Canada will be back to near normal. Their Queenstown, Singapore and Rotorua operations will be at about 75% of the recent peak. Christchurch Casino will be about 90%. The Queenstown hotel will be bundled with Gondola packages to keep up occupancy rates. Sheffield will go ahead but the NZ projects will be right sized (unless the Local and Central Governments view the upgrades as infrastructure and reduce the redtape)
    Like your contrarian longterm plan there Arthur which eliminates most of us who want results NOW!
    Zigging while everyone else is zagging, hope it goes well and yes great money making assets there that cant be easily replicated.

  20. #120
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    252

    Default

    Thanks Joshuatree. I'll credit Beagle and Snoopy if it goes right and put on my big boy pants if it does not work. The way I think about it investing is taking a long term view. I financed it by selling a chunk of my Blis (bought at an average of below one cent) also got into PAZ at less than 6 and Syft at diddly squat when they were in it donkey deep. I've had my share of failures, but they never loose more than 100%. I suspect my Skyline will be a hold forever. There is an irrational, but worthy feeling of owning a business that you can support. I'm hoping that Beagle will be lured back to the Skyline Buffet with a few mates (but eat the potatoes and not the prawns)

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •