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  1. #411
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    Simon says they are ‘well positioned’!!

    https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red...r-solid-profit

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  3. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Slothbear View Post
    Thanks for sharing. Alliance also saying today in their supplier presentations that they are facing pressure on wages also.

  4. #414
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  5. #415
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Thanks for sharing this SB. I heard a rural report on radio yesterday saying all mutton is now being taken by China and prices are 5-6x higher than the traditional Pacific Island market for mutton.
    The freighting availability and price continuous to be a major issue and will no doubt be a serious issue for a few years yet. But I heard the Fonterra CEO say that the Kotahi partnership is definitely helping Fonterra & SFF (and NZ exporters in general)

  6. #416
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Thanks for sharing this SB. I heard a rural report on radio yesterday saying all mutton is now being taken by China and prices are 5-6x higher than the traditional Pacific Island market for mutton.
    The freighting availability and price continuous to be a major issue and will no doubt be a serious issue for a few years yet. But I heard the Fonterra CEO say that the Kotahi partnership is definitely helping Fonterra & SFF (and NZ exporters in general)
    Mutton is forecast to be $5.70 - $6.80 for the coming months, based on Chinese demand. Great money for an old ewe!

    Same with lamb, flaps now into China where in the past use to go to the Pacific Islands or PNG at a couple of bucks - so the 5-6x is about right. About 10% of the carcase. Now taking more forequarters and also other cuts such as heavy legs. Potential for a correction in the Chinese market though....

    Go back further though and the skin and the pelt was worth more than the meat!! Now these are practically worthless.

    Will be interesting to see stock/inventory and compare against last year (at end of FY). Alliance saying they have more stock than had anticipated.

  7. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Mutton is forecast to be $5.70 - $6.80 for the coming months, based on Chinese demand. Great money for an old ewe!

    Same with lamb, flaps now into China where in the past use to go to the Pacific Islands or PNG at a couple of bucks - so the 5-6x is about right. About 10% of the carcase. Now taking more forequarters and also other cuts such as heavy legs. Potential for a correction in the Chinese market though....

    Go back further though and the skin and the pelt was worth more than the meat!! Now these are practically worthless.

    Will be interesting to see stock/inventory and compare against last year (at end of FY). Alliance saying they have more stock than had anticipated.
    I read an article that they use those "lamb flaps " in a hot pot dish in some chain of restaurants over there . Very big demand, have to wonder what they have substituted for this in the Islands ......

  8. #418
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    Hopefully we start to see some share price strength towards the end of the year, especially as farmers look to share up - think they need to be holding at 31/12 to get the supplier rebate. All info is pointing that its been another good year, competitors (Blue Skies, Alliance) indicate stronger profitability, and markets are strong. Only paid out a small portion of the last 2 years profits as dividends, so has plenty of cash to reinvest or distribute.

    Any hiccups in China with either the market or domestically is a risk. Prices are high, so always a chance of a correction, epecially when China takes 40-50% of our red meat exports. Global logistics are also a risk - I think they are better placed than most exporters with Kotahi, and getting product away, but cost is another matter.

    Has been at that $1.10 level a few times, but would be good to see it bust through that. Otherwise, another good divvy in prospect.....

  9. #419
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Hopefully we start to see some share price strength towards the end of the year, especially as farmers look to share up - think they need to be holding at 31/12 to get the supplier rebate. All info is pointing that its been another good year, competitors (Blue Skies, Alliance) indicate stronger profitability, and markets are strong. Only paid out a small portion of the last 2 years profits as dividends, so has plenty of cash to reinvest or distribute.

    Any hiccups in China with either the market or domestically is a risk. Prices are high, so always a chance of a correction, epecially when China takes 40-50% of our red meat exports. Global logistics are also a risk - I think they are better placed than most exporters with Kotahi, and getting product away, but cost is another matter.

    Has been at that $1.10 level a few times, but would be good to see it bust through that. Otherwise, another good divvy in prospect.....
    Yes I expect we will see SP firm up on slightly better volume pre-Christmas. All we are hearing from SFF and other in the industry, as you point out, indicates a bumper profit this year. Given they replenished the coffers last year and ripped into the share registry clean up, I am confident we will see a 7c fully imputed divie in April

  10. #420
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Yes I expect we will see SP firm up on slightly better volume pre-Christmas. All we are hearing from SFF and other in the industry, as you point out, indicates a bumper profit this year. Given they replenished the coffers last year and ripped into the share registry clean up, I am confident we will see a 7c fully imputed divie in April
    Company paid out $26.2m fully imputed last year - so $13.1m to the Coop. Dividend and patronage reward was $8.1m. Company kept the remaining $39.2m of NPAT.

    Understand the need for the Coop to build their reserves, and a buffer for any rainy days ahead. Spent a bit on redeeming those shares, and should be good for remaining shareholders, and for NTA/EPS etc.

    Would think potential for a stronger payout ratio and larger dividend. 7c equates to circa $7m - sure they can afford at least that!

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