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  1. #221
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    Thanks OTL - all good points. From my side:

    - Markets are currently a little softer/off historic highs. While higher prices are a tailwind on profitability, different products/species/markets go through cycles at different times. However as a processor, it comes down to pricing right and having that in their schedule. Can't see what SFF's inventory was at year end, but would be relatively low currently as only coming into the main season now. Forex an issue but will be covered likely based on their procurement. Key is being able to make money in all market conditions.....
    - Lockdowns in EU an issue for premium cuts, but again as long as priced at the correct levels.
    - Brexit - NZ has diversified away from the EU and not reliant as once were - but a sheepmeat issue not beef or venison.
    - Donning and Doffing will be a significant cost, and I estimate will be roughly 50% bigger than Alliance, based on size. However understand Alliance got off proportionally lightly compared to some other companies.
    - Capex is fine as long as a suitable return/payment (rather than BAU spending). Obviously sustainability is highlighted and rightly so, going to become a bigger issue and best to try to front-foot it. $90m is a reasonable chunk of change to spend over the last 3 years, and sale of Fairton and retained profit from last season is still a large chunk of cash.
    - RCEP - The reality is that with most markets NZ has pretty good access. The main RCEP benefit could be Indonesia, which NZ largely got shut out of and there was a WTO case. Don't know the exact situation, but could be beneficial for beef/beef offals.
    - Covid - Pleased they paid back the subsidy.
    - Venison - From what I hear, Alliance are looking to increase, SFF are pulling back.
    - US growth is mainly grass-fed beef. SFF/Alliance/Anzco share joint ownership of The Lamb Company, which does all their sales up there - but their growth is in beef. SFF doing a bit of their own thing.
    - From the outside, I think their internal disciplines have improved and not all about share, but buying what they can sell, and think they are not buying the expensive stock. Lots more staff from outside the industry.
    - Marketing programmes I'm a bit cynical on. Too easily undercut by competitors, or difficulty in maintaining any premium.
    - Staff - No doubt under pressure like everyone, but less reliant on migrants etc.
    - Logistics and shipping is a major issue currently - delays hampering servicing customers, increases storage costs, slows stock turn and cashflow.

    There are no doubt lots of challenges and moving parts in the industry - weather, markets, currency, supply, Covid, alternative proteins, plant based proteins etc etc. In the short term, they have recently said they are on budget for this year, and while don't expect a record profit would think it would be pretty meaningful. I would have thought they would have swept a little under the carpet from last year, and been quite conservative - as would have been finalised when Covid was starting to hit.

    I see them as a beef company - I think that is where they would make their money, and are obviously good operators. Much of that is commodity business.

    Even if their profit is halved from last year, their PE would still be 4......

    Disc: Happy to hold and looking forward to a good divvie.

  2. #222
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    Good discussion guys. As you pointed out SB, a major issue for exporters at the moment is the high freightcost and lack of shipping availability and this could well get worse before it gets better. For those interested here is a good article on it on RNZ and a good interview with Maersk and a freight forwarder in NZ
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?a...-D7a4BlD-iu_s0

  3. #223
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    Thanks for comments peeps. Recommend subscribing to Farmers Weekly's daily digest (free), typically have good articles relating to red meat sector.

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Out to lunch View Post
    Thanks for comments peeps. Recommend subscribing to Farmers Weekly's daily digest (free), typically have good articles relating to red meat sector.
    Agree. And also Keith Woodford's columns, which are a infrequent, but well worth reading regardless of the subject.

  5. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Good discussion guys. As you pointed out SB, a major issue for exporters at the moment is the high freightcost and lack of shipping availability and this could well get worse before it gets better. For those interested here is a good article on it on RNZ and a good interview with Maersk and a freight forwarder in NZ
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?a...-D7a4BlD-iu_s0
    SFF are in partnership with Fonterra in the Kotahi shipping initiative - and that underpins the Maersk services (and Maersk also own Hamburg Sud) - so expect they have contracted space and volumes, and possibly may have some sort of priority? But expect just because of their volume, they'd be hit with delays.

    POA sounds like a mess - understaffed and also a new automated system that is slowing things down, not speeding up as they should be. With port strikes in OZ, this is having a knock-on effect to other ports.

    Pinch point will come into the New Year once throughputs start to increase, and then coldstorage will be at a premium.

  6. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    SFF are in partnership with Fonterra in the Kotahi shipping initiative - and that underpins the Maersk services (and Maersk also own Hamburg Sud) - so expect they have contracted space and volumes, and possibly may have some sort of priority? But expect just because of their volume, they'd be hit with delays.

    POA sounds like a mess - understaffed and also a new automated system that is slowing things down, not speeding up as they should be. With port strikes in OZ, this is having a knock-on effect to other ports.

    Pinch point will come into the New Year once throughputs start to increase, and then coldstorage will be at a premium.
    I would suspect not much SFF product goes through POA but can't find any details

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    I would suspect not much SFF product goes through POA but can't find any details
    Proportionally very little - perhaps from their Dargaville plant - but most of their NI production would be out of Napier and Tauranga I would think. But POA is having a knock-on in terms of causing delays, vessels omitting ports, getting containers in and emptied so they can be exported again etc.

  8. #228
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    Last sale through at 78c.

  9. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Last sale through at 78c.
    And they've now been cleaned out and next offer at 91c. Are we finally starting to see some recognition that this is a company that paid out a 6.9% fully imputed divie this year and currently trades on a P/E of only 2.2 based on this year's earnings ?

  10. #230
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    Well after finding yields and PEs off Direct Broking site for a friend, I thought SFF's stood out,so I took out the few that were for sale at 78 cents.I am confident SFF can maintain their divie, and am hopeful they may increase it.

    ……………..Yield...…………….PE

    CNU...……….2.85%...………...71.42

    CDI.​..​……….​..​3.​93%.​..​……….​.​11.​75​

    EBO...………..3.09%...………….23.39

    GNE.​..​……….​..​5.​24%.​..​………….​73.​49​

    MEL.​..​……….​..​3.​13%.​..​………….​.​89.​96​

    FRE.​..​……….​..​1.​61%.​..​………….​..​30.​99​

    MFT.​..​……….​..​0.​98%.​..​………….​..​35.​22​

    HGH...………..4.96%...…………11.3

    HLG.​..​……….​..​5.​65%.​..​………….​14.​87​

    SEK.​..​……….​..​2.​55%.​..​………….​.​9.​39​

    SPK...………...5.38%...…………….20

    FPH.​..​……….​..​0.​81%.​..​………….​.​49.​82​

    RBD...………….0%...……………..70.71

    TRA.​..​……….​..​4.​84%.​..​………….​..​10.​45​

    BGR.​..​……….​..​2.​07%.​..​………….​15.​87​

    WHS...………….0%...…………….20.12

    ANZ.​..​……….​..​2.​69%.​..​…………….​17.​63​

    WBC.​..​……….​.​1.​53%.​..​…………….​.​31.​07​

    PGW.​..​……….​..​3.​03%.​..​…………….​32.​42.​

    SKL.​..​………….​4.​1%.​..​……………….​21.​25​

    MCY...………….2.63%...…………….39.5

    ??????????….​..​6.​923%.​..​………….​2.​205​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ie under 3...……………………...Answer SFF.
    Last edited by percy; 30-11-2020 at 10:54 AM.

  11. #231
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    Well done Percy. That should inject you firmly into the top 10 holders

  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Well done Percy. That should inject you firmly into the top 10 holders
    Well with our SFF,together with our PAZ holdings, wife and I are firmly committed to Unlisted.
    SFF was brought for outstanding value,ie share price and dividend growth, on an extremely low PE ratio.
    PAZ was brought for outstanding growth potential.

  13. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well with our SFF,together with our PAZ holdings, wife and I are firmly committed to Unlisted.
    SFF was brought for outstanding value,ie share price and dividend growth, on an extremely low PE ratio.
    PAZ was brought for outstanding growth potential.
    Well done Percy! To use your word.....OUTSTANDING!!

    On a serious note, in this environment, you can't let something with a dividend yield of 6.9% and PE of 2.2 go unnoticed. While last year was a record, and possibly a slight outlier, I think further market attention and share price increase will come if they are consistent in their profitability, and make money through all conditions. Traditionally one good year has just been to offset the previous bad one.

    1 month to go in their financial year - on budget as of a month ago - and while expect it is not as high as last year, I'm sure it will be a "meaty" number.

  14. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    And they've now been cleaned out and next offer at 91c. Are we finally starting to see some recognition that this is a company that paid out a 6.9% fully imputed divie this year and currently trades on a P/E of only 2.2 based on this year's earnings ?
    Offer now 80c.

    Slowly grinding higher.....

  15. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Well done Percy! To use your word.....OUTSTANDING!!

    On a serious note, in this environment, you can't let something with a dividend yield of 6.9% and PE of 2.2 go unnoticed. While last year was a record, and possibly a slight outlier, I think further market attention and share price increase will come if they are consistent in their profitability, and make money through all conditions. Traditionally one good year has just been to offset the previous bad one.

    1 month to go in their financial year - on budget as of a month ago - and while expect it is not as high as last year, I'm sure it will be a "meaty" number.
    Last year was a record year.SFF Ltd NPAT was $70mil.I do not expect this year's to match.I have done some figures on it being down 20% to $56.56 mil,as I have no idea what their budget is..
    SFF Ltd's distribution policy is to pay out between 30% and 50%of its NPAT to its two shareholders,SFF CoCp and Shanghi Maling.
    So 30% is $16,968mil and 50% is $28.28 mil.
    SFF CoCp will receive either, $8.484mil or $14.14 mil.
    This year SFF CoOp held back some rainy day funds,[no need to this year] yet paid out $7.9mil to shareholders of which ordinary shareholders received 5.4 cps fully imputed divie.
    So I am expecting SFF CoOp will be in a position to pay the existing divie or increase it.
    The big upside will off course be if their result is better than being down the 20%. Being down 5% to 10% I would expect a huge increase in The CoOp's divie to perhaps 8 cps for a yield of 10.25% at share price of 78 cents.
    My average cost price per share is 60.6 cents.At 78 cps I am up 28.7%.I also received 5.4cps divie.
    I expect a good result will see the share price above $1.
    Last edited by percy; 01-12-2020 at 09:28 AM.

  16. #236
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    Last edited by percy; 02-12-2020 at 07:55 AM.

  17. #237
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    I've been reading a bit about this in the last few weeks and have to say I am flabbergasted with this and workers being able to get back pay for 6 years. This has been the norm in all processing industries since day one and nobody has complained. Fair enough if they agree to change it going forward but this risks opening up and pandora's box of similar issues in many industries.
    I hope my crew don't hear about this madness.

  18. #238
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    I would have thought meat workers' collective agreements would have covered this by paying a higher hourly rate,in which case it is double dipping.
    Smiths City used to have quarter hour pep talks before they opened at 9am.Cost Smiths approx $5mil which went a long way to stuffing them.
    For us SFF Ltd have a very strong balance sheet, with at last balance date $571mil of equity, giving them an equity ratio of 64.5%.
    Most probably a big hit,but a once only.
    Be fun over hearing wage negotiations going forward.
    Management :We will have to reduce your hourly rate as we have to pay you for longer hours without any increase in productivity.
    Unions: We will tell Jacinda on you.
    Last edited by percy; 02-12-2020 at 11:17 AM.

  19. #239
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    A terrible tragedy. My condolences to their families and friends https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/123...ir-way-to-work

  20. #240
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    SFF was settled last year for this

    Meat exports are down 30 % in Oct this year cf 2019

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