sharetrader
Page 44 of 46 FirstFirst ... 3440414243444546 LastLast
Results 431 to 440 of 452
  1. #431
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    4,219

    Default

    Deleted ..............
    Last edited by iceman; 22-11-2021 at 10:04 PM.

  2. #432
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    15,122

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-art...TGGZ2COEKF5FSE

    Bodes well for SFF, especially given relative performance over recent years.
    Certainly does,thanks for posting.
    .

  3. #433
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,852

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Certainly does,thanks for posting.
    .
    With strong markets, large processing share of the beef market and likely better logistics with Kotahi, then would definitely expect another strong result, with the year ending 31/12.

    Hopefully we see buying support from farmers (and others) leading up until Christmas - returns for farmers would have been fantastic over the last couple of years once included the supplier premium (plus of course capital growth and ordinary dividends).

    Potentially it is the 3rd year of excellent profits, and still trading at a PE of under 3.5.

    Would mean they essentially earned their market cap in the last 3 years........!!! And a good chunk of the cash has stayed in the business.....

  4. #434
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    15,122

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    With strong markets, large processing share of the beef market and likely better logistics with Kotahi, then would definitely expect another strong result, with the year ending 31/12.

    Hopefully we see buying support from farmers (and others) leading up until Christmas - returns for farmers would have been fantastic over the last couple of years once included the supplier premium (plus of course capital growth and ordinary dividends).

    Potentially it is the 3rd year of excellent profits, and still trading at a PE of under 3.5.

    Would mean they essentially earned their market cap in the last 3 years........!!! And a good chunk of the cash has stayed in the business.....
    Just keep rolling out your posts..
    Love them...lol.

  5. #435
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    4,219

    Default

    The prices and general market conditions seem pretty favourable in Simon Limmer's newsletter this week. Been trying to post a link to it but something goes funny with it !
    But basically both beef & lamb prices are up on the good prices last year, quite significantly. :-)
    Last edited by iceman; 23-11-2021 at 03:10 PM. Reason: change

  6. #436
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    15,122

  7. #437
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,852

    Default

    Farmers Weekly November 29 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu

    Page 27 - Sword hangs over strong markets

  8. #438
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    4,219

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Farmers Weekly November 29 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu

    Page 27 - Sword hangs over strong markets
    Thanks SB. Interesting reading

  9. #439
    Stocks only go up?
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    84

    Default

    This seems too good to be true almost. Does anyone have any theories as to why the price is so low relative to earnings? Is it just because it is on the USX?
    Additionally, with the PE so low where is all the cash going that the dividend yield is only ~6%?

  10. #440
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    2,852

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Monarch View Post
    This seems too good to be true almost. Does anyone have any theories as to why the price is so low relative to earnings? Is it just because it is on the USX?
    Additionally, with the PE so low where is all the cash going that the dividend yield is only ~6%?
    I’ll have 1st crack….

    The structure of the company is probably a major part of it. You are actually buying shares in the Coop, which investment or asset is 50% of SIlver Fern Farms Ltd. The other 50% is owned by Shanghai Maling, part of Bright Food that also owns a large chunk of Synlait. Shares have been on the USX well before it sold the 50% to BF. The Coop has half the board of SFF Ltd.

    Originally the Coop was $1 in, $1 out so holders never got any value from the capital growth of the company. Way back in time, shareholders only had a maximum of 10,000 shares, so $10k - and the small farmers had the same amount as the large corporate farmers.

    Primarily being listed on the USX it is more for trading of shares in the Coop and allow the ‘market’ to decide the value. Still illiquid and less than 3m shares traded in the last 12 months - so only 3% of the company…...

    Some of the profit is paid out as dividend per share, and there is also a patronage reward paid out to shareholders who supplied livestock. So last year if you supplied livestock, you got 11.2c per share!! Livestock supply is the life blood of the business, but even at todays price, farmer shareholders get competitive livestock price and based on last FY Divvy, 10% return on your share money. They do want to encourage more farmers to take up shares and then for that livestock supply to become a little more "sticky". Consistent profits and patronage rewards will again help this and I see as a little as a self-perpetuating circle....

    There has been a little noise about ‘dry’or non-supplying shareholders and whether they might be limited in number or similar. Nothing seems likely in the short-term - just need to be aware. The dividend policy previously hasn't been well defined and how they treat supplying holders and dry holders.

    Historically the company has performed fairly averagely (to be kind) with debt being a large factor in this, particularly after protracted/agressive/unwelcomed takeover of Richmond in the early 2000's that ended up costing them too much and also lost a decent amount of farmer supply from it. With the 50% sale to Shanghai Maling, the business became free of any long-term debt - which really was a noose weighing it down.

    The company has started to perform well in recent years. The last couple of years they’ve made $65-70m and what I can see very likely to make another strong profit this year. This is from comments made so far by the company, but also looking at other meat companies recent announcements like Blue Sky (USX) and Alliance (Farmer Coop), that have had an increase in earnings this year compared to last. From my perspective, SFF just seem to be doing their thing, well run and in a reasonably good space currently.

    Much of the profit has been retained in the company. FY2020 they paid out $26m of $65m, so $13m of the total dividend went to the Coop. Circa 100m shares/13cps, so paid some out, paid out the patronage reward and kept some.

    The profit history has probably been a part of it, but 3 very good years in a row is starting to put some serious runs on the board.

    I understand they do want to make the Coop self-sustaining financially and not reliant on divvies from SFF Ltd. So some of the funds have been retained. They’ve also been cleaning up the share register with small/lost shareholding’s - which is good for remaining holders.

    Last year, they delayed the divvy due to Covid like many companies, and then would have been reasonably conservative. This year divvy was up slightly.

    They don’t report a half-year, or announce any earnings forecast etc, which I think doesn’t help the price or awareness of the company as an investment.

    Not sure how much money is kept within the business as cash or been spent on capital works etc. Many of the plants suffered through lack of investment, with just necessary R&M going back in time. So a bit of a catch-up over the last few years. Not sure what capital spend they have planned for the future.

    There isn't alot of "growth" out there in terms of plants/livestock numbers, without acquistion or the like, and don't think they have an apetite for that, especially with the history, and would likely face regulatory issues. Any growth will likely come out of extracting value of what they have - rather than just more. The company in recent years has focused on their brand and meat - and had JV's in the likes of rendering. So expect them to push more into a few of these areas.

    At some stage they may start to spit out more cash, and the more consistency in profits, the more the market will notice. Pretty easy to work out the profit and earnings per share - $65m 50% to Coop, $32.5m, 100m shares, about 32c eps.

    When look at the balance sheet, can probably question the value of an old meat processing plant. But currently so undervalued on this also - about $3.20 per share for $1.10.

    Most of the posters bought in the $0.60’s and enjoyed about $0.11 in fully imputed divvies and seen holdings appreciate by about 50%.

    The company is facing some challenges (like many NZ primary industries) - Covid, labour, carbon farming, move away from meat for environmental reasons, shipping/logistics, emmissions, water treatment etc etc.

    However I think there is more upside from here. It is illiquid, and (I think) $1.10 is a all-time-high but the fundamentals remain compelling, there is a big safety margin and one for a long-term hold.
    Last edited by Sideshow Bob; 01-12-2021 at 01:35 PM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •