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Last trade $1.12. Few more on the offer at $1.12 and bid at $1.06.
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 Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Last trade $1.12. Few more on the offer at $1.12 and bid at $1.06.
Has creeped up a little in the last week. Fairly firm support at $ 1.30 now. Managed to get a handful at $ 1.15
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Originally Posted by iceman
Has creeped up a little in the last week. Fairly firm support at $ 1.30 now. Managed to get a handful at $ 1.15
Good on you.
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Originally Posted by iceman
Has creeped up a little in the last week. Fairly firm support at $ 1.30 now. Managed to get a handful at $ 1.15
Nice one! Great LT buy, and see now popped back up.
Has been reported that Alliance has said at their supplier roadshows that they'll make a loss this year (FY ended 30/9/23). 2021 they made $23m after tax, last year $73m. So quite the turnaround and will be interesting to see how far down they are. Understand taking quite a few measures to arrest the slump, including some job losses, and rumours are might be quite a large red number.
Alliance more exposed to lamb than SFF, as AGL are NZ's largest sheepmeats processor. Lamb has been a huge struggle for processors of late, with markets awash with cheap Australian lamb. Australian schedules are around $5 AUD/Kg for heavy lambs, $3.75/Kg for light lambs, whereas NZ lamb schedules are around or just under $7 NZD/Kg - so something doesn't add up. For the last week in September, 2021 the Aussies slaughtered 97k lambs, 2022 was 87k lambs and in 2023 it was 125k lamb......
Australia has benefited from herd rebuilds and La Nina being kind to Aussies with good rain/grass growth. But El Nino could be a complete different story.
Understand beef has been pretty average margin-wise, but better than lamb but Alliance only about 7% of NZ's production vs SFF 30%.
Interesting times!!
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A bit of detail on the beef market in Simon Limmer's newsletter this week:
"Global Beef Markets Insights
In this week’s market report, we’re bringing you a little more detail on some of the longer-term trends for our key beef markets, and in particular, the United States and China.
Earlier this year, the US herd was 89 million head (the lowest since 2014) and the beef cow herd was 29 million head (the lowest since 1964). Drought conditions have improved in some areas, but not all.
US beef production has remained higher than expected in the first half of the year. In turn, this has kept US exports higher and led to a revision in 2023 forecasts. The effect of this in the short term has been reduced demand in the global economy relative to expectations, and lower prices than could have been expected.
In the longer term, we expect high cow slaughter means that the US herd will continue to shrink, lengthening any future rebuilding and limiting US production for the next several years with positive ramifications for our own beef exports.
China is an important market which provides stability to global beef pricing due to the sheer volume of beef consumed. Total beef consumption for 2023 is forecast to be 10.98 million tonnes, with 2.8 million tonnes of that imported.
Chinese beef demand has been slower to develop than previously thought, a function of current slower economic growth. Oversupply and heavy inventory has slowed demand and disrupted global pricing.
However, Chinese customers have started to re-enter the market, which has helped to firm up frozen cut pricing. Chilled demand is stronger than frozen.
Given the volumes of beef that China consumes, their in-market recovery is quite important. If the Chinese market doesn’t recover sufficiently, the US market will end up absorbing greater volumes of beef diverted out of South America, Australia and New Zealand.
In terms of production from competing exporting countries, production in the US, Argentina, Canada and Uruguay is expected to be down. On the other hand, we’re expecting increases in production from the likes of Brazil and Australia.
In Australia, beef production is forecast to reach 2.2 million tonnes (carcass weight) in 2023 - this represents a 15 percent increase on 2022 production totals. Cattle numbers for slaughter will continue to increase after the rebuild through 2020-22, and total production and exports will rise.
In the year to August 2023, Australian beef exports have already increased 62 percent to the United States, 30 percent to China and 16 percent to South Korea. "
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Originally Posted by percy
It is rather disappointing to see Silver Fern Farms give in to this nonsense.
Playing along will only appease for so long but in the end you will be devoured.
They should push back against a cult that is trying to extinguish their existence.
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Originally Posted by blackcap
It is rather disappointing to see Silver Fern Farms give in to this nonsense.
Playing along will only appease for so long but in the end you will be devoured.
They should push back against a cult that is trying to extinguish their existence.
Like this neighbour of mine at an Oklahoma RV park last night, proudly displayed on his number plate :-)
IMG_3399 (002).jpg
IMG_3398 (002).jpg
Last edited by iceman; 03-10-2023 at 01:10 PM.
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SFF's 75th Birthday on Saturday. Few ups & downs in that time.
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Potential job losses at Alliance....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...Pos=1#cxrecs_s
While different to SFF, operate in the same procurement and sales markets.....
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