Silver Ferm Farms

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...M4F3TRJMBJVUI/

De-risk from China: Companies and investors warned

[Sideshow Bob]

The meat guys in recent years have had little to no choice but to pile into China where able (in particular lamb).

China is where alot of the value has come from in recent years. Selling lamb flaps at huge prices, increasing volumes of forequarters and heavy legs, then items such as bones, fat caps etc where would have gone to petfood or MDM. Diversifying out of more traditional markets UK/EU/US/ME markets and tightening supply (and pricing).

To be competitive for procurement, are you going to take $13/Kg for lamb flaps in China, or $5/Kg somewhere else (if that)?

Live by the sword, die by the sword.......they all had a great year last year, but this year with economic factors, dynamics of protein markets, China slowdown and a plethora of Australian lamb it is much, much tougher.

Australia have built up huge numbers over the last few years and they just keep keeping and shipping regardless of price. Bit of El Nino required to dry them out and normalise their numbers. Until that happens, going to be a hard road on lamb at least.....

https://www.mla.com.au/news-and-even...est-on-record/

But if anyone is sensible, you don't bet the house on China and keep all irons in the fire......

[iceman]

Well said SB

[nztx]

Interesting article on Alliance in Stuff today:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...ent-to-farmers

“Like all New Zealand meat processors, Alliance is facing significant volatility as a result of geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and weakening global markets. This has flowed through to weaker livestock pricing for our farmers.”

Richard McIntyre, from Federated Farmers, says many farmers are struggling to make a profit as a result of higher on-farm costs and China’s economic slowdown. Climate change policy and other new regulations are also adding to their administrative burden.

[percy]

Looks as though next year US market will be strong for SFF.
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLV...7XvbaruABbGDKQ

[iceman]

Yes hopefully prices will start rising again late next year if Aussie and Brazil reduce their dumping into USA. This from Simon Limmer's latest newsletter:

"The glut of product out of Australia continues, with huge volumes going into the US and China.

Though this has placed immense pressure on pricing for us, US domestic retailers are holding onto very strong prices. While reflected in US domestic cattle pricing, it’s not being passed through to imported prices due to the strong volumes of imported beef available. South American product going into bond, particularly from Brazil, is adding negatively to market sentiment with 60,000mt of ‘other countries’ quota for clearance from January 1st. "

[percy]

More on the Australian Meat sector.
https://sharecafe.us14.list-manage.c...6&e=338561e893

[Sideshow Bob]

SFF update pricing.....

SFF takes a hard look at forecast prices as lamb prices dwindle (farmersweekly.co.nz)

[Southern Lad]

Alliance Group Ltd result released late yesterday not too flash - Alliance Group announces Annual Result | Alliance Group

[nztx]

Alliance Group Ltd result released late yesterday not too flash - Alliance Group announces Annual Result | Alliance Group

Indeed quite a turn around.

Some old Sheds from the past I recognise among their collection of plants, not small ones either..

What is depicted at the top of P41 of the AR could really come home to roost if 2024 betters the 2023 race into Red

"Half-Assed Stops Here" Very Appropriate, but probably applies as warning to more in the game

Signals of new market reality will be coming home fast to the Cockies firing their stock through these outfits as the 'hand that feeds' encounters market headwinds on many fronts .. God help any of the outfits needing a stakeholder prop up or bail out looking forward ..