BGR Chart

[Phaedrus]

Briscoes has been in a downtrend for about 18 months now, and I think it has bottomed out. It's only fair to point out though, that I have thought this before - five times, in fact. I was particularly confident I was right the time BGR found good support at just over 140, as marked by the pale blue dotted line. Wrong. Again. Each and every time, prices rose only to reverse and continue the downtrend without breaking above the trendline. Who knows how low this will go? Obviously not me!
The chart below shows just how timely trendline break signals can be - those selling on the trendline break realised almost all of the gains made in the preceding uptrend. The other five indicators plotted here gave Sell signals a week or two later, though at lower prices, of course.
Many people use trailing stops that are based on a price drop of a certain fixed percentage. This figure could range from less than 5% to over 20%, depending on the volatility of the stock in question - it needs to be varied for each individual stock. Trailing stops based on a stock's Average True Range do not have this problem - they adjust themselves automatically to variations in volatility. The idea is to choose an ATR multiple that is appropriate to your trading style. Short-term traders might use a stop that trails prices by, say, 3 times a stocks average range. Medium term traders might use a multiple of, say 6, while those interested in the long-term might want to use a stop that trailed prices by 12 times the average volatility. The aim here is to react only to price moves that are of a significant magnitude over and above the normal volatility. The chart plots a trailing stop with a multiple of 11 times the average volatility of this stock.
BGR is rising and nearing the trendline - as it has many times over the last year. None of the six plotted indicators that gave such good exit signals have indicated a buy yet.
The magenta line plotted after the Sell signal is an eleven times ATR trailing stop such as would be used by a conservative trader that sold BGR short at the trendline break. They would cover their short when BGR broke above this line, so of course this event would make a good conservative "Buy" signal as well.

[clearasmud]

Your chart just proves that it hasn't bottemed out!

[Gryffyn]

Are you able to take into account the "Halo" effect of WHS having a bounce?

[willy_wonker]

KING has got this one right.

[Risk]

Phaedrus, sounds like youre bottom fishing?!

this one came to my notice a few weeks ago with the spike in volume...which may precede a price rise.

however, i dismissed it soon after, as the following days did not have exceptional volume, and the chart still looks ugly.

if I had to pick between WHS or BGR I'd pick WHS (although both yearly charts look quite similar)....but even if I did want BGR, there will be plenty of time to jump aboard once an uptrend is clearly confirmed.

[Steve]

I sold out this afternoon, having bought back in May. Tidy profit, but think the price may go back down after hitting the trendline. *Note:this will probably mean that the price will continue upwards this time!*

[Liberty]

Steve, will you buy back if you are proven wrong and the price continues to rise through the trendline?

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

KING has got this one right.

yeah right....

you were saying that a $1.53



stop weaving little WW stories[]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Liberty

Steve, will you buy back if you are proven wrong and the price continues to rise through the trendline?

Possibly, but it will depend if any other stocks have appeared on the radar, due to the constraint of available funds...

[Barrel Scraper]

Heres my take on the charts and Fundies for BRG.

Buy demand comes onto this stock leading up to 1/2 and FY results (1/2 yr = 5 Sept 03, FY = 19 Mar 04).
The market however appears generally unimpressed when any quarter sales figures are released ... but again shows support (prior to the release of figures) in search of a turnaround in fortunes.

The current surge in SP is in anticipation of a good sales result for Q2 and a desire not to miss the hop should a better than expected 1/2Yr result ensue (carrying with it a 2 to 3cps divvie).

I'm not anticipating anything fantastic for the 1/2 yr, Mr Duke has already spelt that out. But by the same token I am not prepared to discount the possibility that better than expected results have been achieved.
I fully suport BRGs strategy to improve margins but don't think the true effect will be seen till the FY results next March as the impact of less sales/higher margins becomes apparent after the Xmas period.
In other words the FY to 31/1/05 results will be the measure of wether BRG and its new strategy is on the right track.

I am not put off by the still apparent sales at Briscoes as close inspection reveals that only certain items are heavily discounted with the majority of stock prices remaining largely untouched.

So, while I remain hopeful the BRG shareprice has seen a turnaround, I am not convinced we won't see a 1.30 or less SP again over the next few months.. but after that - my take is that holders of BRG stock ( particularly those who bought at sub 1.40 recently, or in the near future) will be very happy indeed.