Bathurst Resources - BRL

[scottwalshnz]

Going to get slammed tomorrow. Down to 10 cents maybe. Directors have a lot to answer for.

What am I missing here, I thought the conversion was expected as a likely outcome?

[blackcap]

What am I missing here, I thought the conversion was expected as a likely outcome?

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann...#post-27225297

THe company had the option to redeem at par or face value and elected not to....

10 cents may be a bit low.. but it does explain the recent weakness in SP

[trader_jackson]

Going to get slammed tomorrow. Down to 10 cents maybe. Directors have a lot to answer for.

I am not so sure:
Short term - there could be panic, especially by those like us who were hoping/preferring BRL didn't go down this track.

The update on guidance wasn't anything surprising, I'll be expecting EBITDA of at least $58m, and something tells me they will be making higher margins on Stockton than what they've indicated (which was the same as
they've indicated for a while - fairly brief)

For some perspective on valuation: $58m conservative EBITDA gives 3.1 cents per share of EBITDA, before we start counting in synergies or escarpment development... South 32 is trading at 9.2x EBITDA to give you an idea (ie 31 cents), Whitehaven is trading at 5.6... BRL on exact same multiples would be 28.6 cents and 17.4 cents respectively (Whitehaven is looking pretty 'cheap' as well and doesn't have the immediate expansion BRL has) 3.1 cents per share assumes full conversion (1.88b shares issued) Going by the above, which I must reinforce is likely to be on the conservative side of estimates , I am only to happy I have brought at 14 cents, 3 cents and 12.5 cents respectively, and could well see a cent dividend banked this time next year..

Having had my rant, this was the most crucial statement for me which gives me confidence and I don't think was mentioned before:
"In order to participate in the RCPS Placement, the institutional subscribers were also required to commit funds to both the Convertible Notes and the USD Bonds"

Firstly, note the change in wording from "sophisticated investors" to "institutional investors", and it may be a good idea not to piss these guys off - they are the ones who may well be (now) writing the broker report tomorrow saying Bathurst is worth 30 cents.
Secondly, I didn't know these guys had to subscribe for all parts of the deal, I thought some got the RCPS, some got the bonds and some got the convertible notes - these guys clearly have a long term interest on all fronts, although it would not be surprising to see some selling from them once they are converted - it may not be anywhere near as cheap as some think.. they will know the info better than others (unfortunately) and why sell at 17 cents when they 'know' it is worth 20+

As a holder since 2014, I was a bit pissed off to see they are essentially giving shares away and will be very interested to hear back from those going to the FMA and NZ shareholders Association with their complaints - it would be good to have these question also raised at the AGM for those going, and as with those going to the FMA and Shareholders Association, a post on here on what their views were would be very much appreciated, not just by myself, but many other posters. I would also like to say I think it was good BRL fronted up and said something, rather than nothing... although it would have been nice if they'd answer what is happening with the convertible notes... I have assumed they will convert these to keep the "institutional" investors happy, maybe these guys are happy just to get the ultra cheap shares and give a few of the cheap ones away - who knows, maybe they are arranging the takeover offer at 50 cents a share as well

Will be very interesting tomorrow to see just how much panic there is and how long it lasts before people put their thinking caps back on.

[t.rexjr]

Just been perusing HC. A little surprised that people really believed it was going to play out differently to what it has. Hoped maybe, but surely unlikey. RCPS holders would expect to be in the money, just as anyone that bought shares last year...

As for what management/board did, I don't think they had any choice. The company is owned by the 2 funds out of Singapore and those 2 funds were the ones that financed BRL when no one gave a damn about BRL only 12 months back. I think it is only fair that the 2 funds benefit for all the risk they took when there was no deal, no cashflow and there was a real risk that BRL would go to zero.

[blackcap]

Just been perusing HC. A little surprised that people really believed it was going to play out differently to what it has. Hoped maybe, but surely unlikey. RCPS holders would expect to be in the money, just as anyone that bought shares last year...

Thanks for the replies t.rexjr and trader_jackson. You may both well be right, and it would explain the drop to 15 yesterday when this news obviously was going to be released. I do know what you are saying about valuation TJ. I also have a good valuation on BRL, just disappointed that they did not repurchase the notes at par. Although to be fair having thought it through and spoken to my partner who is knowledgeable on these things.... there was all the risk for the particpants and there would have to be reward. I am still sitting pretty, having picked up a huge chunk of stock when it was trading at 1.4 cents.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017092...96pv6mxrcp.pdf

Absolutely flipping outstanding that's all I will say (I've said enough on HC)

[t.rexjr]

I've been enjoying your debate on HC. Entertaining for me at least...

I think this relaease certainly gives you the right for a 'told you so' moment!

[RTFQ]

Some light reading

https://industry.gov.au/Office-of-th...gical-Coal.pdf

https://industry.gov.au/Office-of-th...2017-India.pdf

[stoploss]

TJ , looks like a bit of an upgrade ? !
Very detailed report here , way over my head .... leave it to you .

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01913232

[trader_jackson]

TJ , looks like a bit of an upgrade ? !
Very detailed report here , way over my head .... leave it to you .

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01913232

Looks good right? Share price not looking so good - bit dumb founded by it to be honest (as I have said multiple times on another platform). Wish I'd snagged a few today at 12.0c because you'd think the share price would increase tomorrow as a result of resources nearly doubling!

Then again you'd also think after a great first quarter of the "new & improved" BRL the share price could only push higher...