Bathurst Resources - BRL

[blockhead]

Tricha,

Why do you say ''hundreds of millions away from beginning'' if I read the information on BRL's website correctly around $25m will have them going @ 500,000 tonnes pa

[BlackPeter]

I would like to think that they would ramp up production for export in the near future as is being suggested here, but if they were contemplating that then surely those 2 directors wouldn't have just stood down? The fact they stood down last week suggests they might not be planning anything anytime soon and still think things are quite far away from beginning?

Hi Barleeni - good question, and I don't have the answer.

However - I could imagine that given coking coal was going downhill now for a number of years (and only the last 6 weeks or so bouncing back) they might want to wait until the trend is confirmed. It would be quite expensive if they find out that they opened the mine too early based on a dead cats bounce.

Related to getting rid of some of the directors ... there might be a number of reasons they wouldn't want to publish ... maybe just the last "good opportunity" for a while to find an innocent explanation?

[crayfish]

I would like to think that they would ramp up production for export in the near future as is being suggested here, but if they were contemplating that then surely those 2 directors wouldn't have just stood down? The fact they stood down last week suggests they might not be planning anything anytime soon and still think things are quite far away from beginning?

they had too step down 2 directors as part of a major cost cutting effort....... if they don't get cost down they will not survive........
Will be difficult to raise anymore cash and as a shareholder a don't want a huge dilution of my share holdings at these level.
hopefully they turn cashflow positive this quarter.... the price of fuel tumbling is going to be a huge bonus.
risk versus reward is on.

[tony64peter]

U.S. crude fell more than $2 to a five-year low in Asian trade on Monday, while Brent futures touched a fresh four-year low, extending a steep sell-off after OPEC decided not to cut production last week, keeping markets well supplied.
Both U.S. crude and Brent have fallen for five straight months, oil's longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis.
U.S. crude tumbled to near $64, dragging Brent down below $70, after Saudi Arabia's oil minister told fellow OPEC members last week that they must combat the U.S. shale oil boom.
"They (OPEC) can get by at $60 a barrel, but that price would knock out a fair whack of the competition - much U.S. shale oil for example - as well as put investment in future capacity growth firmly on the back-burner," ANZ analysts said in a note." 1 hour ago "

Analysts are predicting as low as USD40

This can only be good for Asian expansion, energy dependent, and long term met coal prices. hopefully our dollar will fall further thus making BRL's coal more attractive.

[biker]

U.S. crude fell more than $2 to a five-year low in Asian trade on Monday, while Brent futures touched a fresh four-year low, extending a steep sell-off after OPEC decided not to cut production last week, keeping markets well supplied.
Both U.S. crude and Brent have fallen for five straight months, oil's longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis...............


Analysts are predicting as low as USD40

This can only be good for Asian expansion, energy dependent, and long term met coal prices. hopefully our dollar will fall further thus making BRL's coal more attractive.

Yes indeed. If a commodity's price is cyclical try and buy at the bottom? BRL is totally out of favour at the moment but history says there will be an upswing in coking coal prices eventually. If BRL can survive on thermal coal cash flow and maybe a bit of borrowing there would appear to be some attractive upside at these levels. Unless of course there is criminal nondisclosure going on and the company is going broke!
I'm buying at $A .025 with lots of risk and lots of upside.
Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased.

[Flugenbear]

Good luck Biker.
I am tempted but I just don't see a recovery in the next year. I have been watching (and tempted) since it went below 10 cents.
I do agree there is potential....just not sure when and if they will survive until then.
I'll be in at 2 cents....I think

[tony64peter]

Latest analyst's forecasts are not good.

Metallurgical coal “Metallurgical coal spot prices declined steadily over the first eight months of 2014 in response to a combination of increased supply and lower import demand from China,” BREE[ Bureaux Resources Energy Economics ] said.
Australian benchmark contract prices for high-quality metallurgical coal settled at $US120 in the September quarter, and BREE said many coal operations are unprofitable at this price level.
BREE said weakness in Chinese real-estate would persist throughout 2015, preventing any rapid price rise in coking coal prices.
Metallurgical coal contract prices are forecast to decline by 2.6 per cent to average US$123 a tonne in 2015.
From 2016, the market balance is expected to tighten as China’s real estate sector begins to recover and a prolonged period of oversupply comes to an end through the closure of high-cost operations. The metallurgical coal contract price is projected to rise modestly to US$130 a tonne (in 2014 dollar terms) by 2019.
Australia’s exports of metallurgical coal increased by 17 per cent to 181 million tonnes in 2013-14.
Exports are forecast to increase by a further 2 per cent to 185 million tonnes in 2014-15. The value of these exports is forecast to remain steady at around $23.2 billion.
Might be years away before a start.

[Flugenbear]

Not good at all....
If this proves accurate then BRL will need a significant fall in the NZD/USD exchange rate....certainly to sub 70 cent levels.
Although currency predictions are a mugs game, I can't see such a significant fall happening in the next couple of years.....if anything I wouldn't be surprised to see above 80 cents again next year.
You could be right.....years away a realistic possibility.....I'd go further and say probability.

[BlackPeter]

Latest analyst's forecasts are not good.

Metallurgical coal “Metallurgical coal spot prices declined steadily over the first eight months of 2014 in response to a combination of increased supply and lower import demand from China,” BREE[ Bureaux Resources Energy Economics ] said.
Australian benchmark contract prices for high-quality metallurgical coal settled at $US120 in the September quarter, and BREE said many coal operations are unprofitable at this price level.
BREE said weakness in Chinese real-estate would persist throughout 2015, preventing any rapid price rise in coking coal prices.
Metallurgical coal contract prices are forecast to decline by 2.6 per cent to average US$123 a tonne in 2015.
From 2016, the market balance is expected to tighten as China’s real estate sector begins to recover and a prolonged period of oversupply comes to an end through the closure of high-cost operations. The metallurgical coal contract price is projected to rise modestly to US$130 a tonne (in 2014 dollar terms) by 2019.
Australia’s exports of metallurgical coal increased by 17 per cent to 181 million tonnes in 2013-14.
Exports are forecast to increase by a further 2 per cent to 185 million tonnes in 2014-15. The value of these exports is forecast to remain steady at around $23.2 billion.
Might be years away before a start.

Well, just wondering who of the analysts predicted that the oil price might crash in November 2014? So I guess it is interesting to read these reports (and they help to play some scenarios through), but we shouldn't get too depressed because of one somewhat depressed analysis.

Chinese coking coal market has not yet reacted (but might - who knows). I am still assuming that a lower oil price (if it stays) will be good for the coking coal market .. lower fuel costs means more money left for building projects, ships, trucks ... and this means more steel (and more coking coal to produce).

Obviously - these things need time to flow through. Give it another 6 to 12 months of low oil prices, and we might start feeling the impact on the coking coal prices ...

Discl: holding (in high risk portfolio - high risk, but high rewards if it turns out right )

[biker]

At the risk of being accused of adopting the stance of an ostrich, I must say the validity of economic forecasts especially looking out 5 years is very questionable. Economists are notorious for getting it wrong, and often badly wrong.
Certainly though, the market is saying loudly and clearly that it has no interest in BRL.

Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm either in for a long wait, a fleecing, or an unexpected outcome that provides an excellent return.

And I'm biased.