Bathurst Resources - BRL

[BlackPeter]

I think this stock, despite depressed coal prices, is still seriously undervalued.

Next report/update must be out within the month maybe? Should confirm cash flow positive and show impact of dropping dollar... Both good things for the company.

Well, it certainly is not all doom and gloom. Interesting is that the NZ$ price for hard coking coal hardly dropped this year - the falling US$ price is nearly compensated by the dropping NZ$. Throw the low oil price environment (lower operating and transport cost) into the mix, and we could even identify a silver line at the horizon ...

However - given the price of the BRL shares - they are at current basically an option on coking coal. If coking coal goes over the next 12 months up in a meaningful way, than this will turn into a multi-bagger. If it stays low for more than another year or so (when the Westport customer closes its premises), than we can probably say good bye to any residual share value.

[trader_jackson]

Surely Bathurst is worth more than $10m AUD?? what is happening to the share price at the moment? 0.011c??

[macduffy]

Surely Bathurst is worth more than $10m AUD?? what is happening to the share price at the moment? 0.011c??

See BlackPeter's post of 20 July. Just about sums up the situation I reckon.

[barleeni]

Surely Bathurst is worth more than $10m AUD?? what is happening to the share price at the moment? 0.011c??

The previous 2 quarterly updates were released on the 29th of the month, so going by that trend we should receive a quarterly update this week sometime (Wednesday?).

I guess this will show cashflow positive. The value of the company still hinges around the price of coking coal though, which I think dropped about another 10% over the last 4 weeks. From platts dated 20 July in regards to met. coal "Second-tier coals have fallen $10.50/mt since June 19, while first-tier coals have dropped a milder $7.25/mt over the same period"

Unfortunately the spot price is falling faster than the exchange rate so its not cancelling out!

Still tempted to top up at these prices though, surely coking coal prices will recover one day (?)

[BlackPeter]

Still tempted to top up at these prices though, surely coking coal prices will recover one day (?)

Giving into your temptation is o.k., as long as you realise that this is highly speculative. I guess the relevant question for BRL is whether coking coal goes up before their inland contracts run out. This is possible (and if it happens the buyer / holder will be nicely rewarded), but it is far from certain. Only buy more shares if you can afford to write them off ...

[Leftfield]

Still tempted to top up at these prices though, surely coking coal prices will recover one day (?)

Good Luck. However IMHO the trend isn't your friend and given oil/commodity prices at the moment the trend may not change for many months. Why tie your money up on this when there are much better options in the meantime?

[trader_jackson]

The thing is, as soon as the met coal market starts showing a sign of turning around, bathurst shares could quite literally double just on that news (like earlier this year around when it went from about 1.8c to over 4c in the space of about a month or so). I am not sure of many other shares on the NZX that have the ability to make a "easy" 100-200% gain in a couple of months, with more room for it to move up (assuming met coal market continues "recover" BRL could be over 10c in a couple of years quite easily I would think).

The question therefore is, will the international met coal price turn around in time for when Bathurst's domestic contracts start to dry up, because if it does turn around before, Bathurst (I think) will be a huge success, but if it doesn't, quite the opposite could happen...

In the short term I am hoping for another cash flow positive report to come up soon...

[Regi]

I am not sure of many other shares on the NZX that have the ability to make a "easy" 100-200% gain in a couple of monthsIn the short term I am hoping for another cash flow positive report to come up soon...

Except for the fact it's no longer an NZX listed company

I traded out of Bathurst at 2.3 cents shortly after the delisting news. Horrible trend, coal is always going to be needed yes, but long term... it's just not the future and based on how I invest I decided it's no longer the stock for me. I wonder why I bought it in the first place... expensive mistake. Seeing week after week a steady drop to the point a 0.001 cent drop translates to just shy of 10% (a red percentage I would dread to see on any other in my portfolio) makes me happy I cut my losses. I think for now, like left field said, you would be better pursuing other opportunities out there than quickly pouring more money into a leaky ship and doing nothing but hope it stays afloat.

[tim23]

Trouble is Trader Jackson you have to know when to bail on a profit when in uptrend easier said than done!

[trader_jackson]

This is always the problem!

A friend of mine brought BRL in December for 2.8c, 3 months later it was over 4c, he didn't sell... what was looking like an amazing success is now... well not so much. I wonder what exactly caused it to spike all of a sudden earlier this year around March?