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  1. #46
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    Took a hammering with some of it's holdings including it's largest (>8% of fund) Brilliance China Automotive - the SP dropping from HK$18 to $8 last 52 weeks - but have a look at Brilliance now and you would probably say raging buy..

    http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...symbol=1114.HK

    They must have got out of India's Tata Consultancy that I mentioned in last post, emerging markets Banks/ Finance is the funds biggest sector at ~30%. Don't know what the mood currently is there.

    Worth drilling down into the funds larger holdings and exposure to certain sectors to get a feel for what you are buying here.

    For TA or people new to TEM, best to follow trading on the LSE as NZ just mirrors that, only with reduced liquidity.

    http://www.londonstockexchange.com/e...M.html?lang=en

    Keen to re-enter but bottom picking not something I'm good at.
    Last edited by psychic; 07-09-2015 at 03:03 PM.

  2. #47
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    Sorry Roger, just read your post. Agree - GBP/NZD a part of the equation here

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    I read on the FT that the respected manager, Mark Mobius, was stepping down and that may recently have exerted an additional downward pressure on the TEM price. It is trading at quite a large discount to NAV. It has been underperforming its benchmark, so it will be interesting to see where the future management will take it.
    An article by Dr Mark Mobius, dated from June so predates a lot of the Chinese ructions of recent times.

    http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/247198...erging-markets

    In my view, there is money still waiting to be invested around the globe, money which could continue to fuel global equity markets - even as the Fed is expected to start to raise interest rates in the United States.
    In our view, stocks in many emerging markets are undervalued now (based on price/earnings and price/book values), and we believe there is still money in motion as central banks globally expand their balance sheets.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    The NZX chart does look absolutely horrendous at face value but you also need to factor in that this obviously has its primary listing on the U.K. market and when you start to consider the N.Z. SP should have found some meaningful support from the fall in the $Kiwi from ~50 pence all the way down to ~41 pence in recent months then the U.K. listing chart must look FAR worse
    If its underperforming the EM benchmark and has lost one of its best managers and has underperformed for some time as has been suggested above them maybe this isn't all its cracked up to be ?

    Another Barramundi of sorts ?...or perhaps that's slightly harsh
    Not sure about the comparison with Barramundi ... I guess at least TEM invest in stocks which are not that easy to buy yourself. They did as well quite well during the time the emerging markets flourished (up to 2010 / 2011) - with typically 2 digit returns over more than a decade.

    Not sure whether I expect them to get long term back into this 2 digit growth mode, but I would expect some significant appreciation back into the band they used to move in over the last 5 years or so ($10 ... $12) if & when the Chinese flu is over (and I am rather sure, it will go - just not so sure, when).
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  5. #50
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    Yes fair comments BP and Psychic. For mine, using common sense technical indicators makes at least as much sense as anything else for this fund. I won't reconsider getting back in until it's clearly broken back up through the 100 day MA...however long that takes remains to be seen, could be quite a while I suspect.

  6. #51
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    So - what do we think about TEM these days? Pretty depressed price reflecting the general feeling about the economy of the emerging markets.

    On the other hand ...

    * fuel is as cheap as it probably can get (which should be good for the automotive shares they own - e.g. Brilliance - 7.9% and Astra - 3.6%)
    * China has still a huge growth rate - and Chinese share prices are back to more reasonable levels (25,6% of their shares are Chinese)
    * lots of opportunities in Iran (don't think they hold currently, but it might be worthwhile to change that)
    * oil price free fall seems to have stopped (improving market sentiment)

    So - I guess unless we have an unfolding banking crisis (they do hold a number of emerging market banks - in Indonesia, Brasil and Thailand), things should look better from here.

    Discl: not particularly happy, but at least modestly optimistic holder ... thinking about accumulating at these prices

    PS: quarterly report is out: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/228778.pdf
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 27-01-2016 at 11:20 AM. Reason: added link to quarterly report
    ----
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  7. #52
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    I'm most underwhelmed to be honest BP. What value are they adding for their fees of just over 1% per annum ?

    They have badly underperformed the MSCI emerging markets index in the last year and also materially underperformed over the last 3 years, five years and more recently over the last 3 months.

    I think the good fund managers they had at one stage left years ago. You might as well buy some ETF's mate.

    I don't own and won't buy a fund that consistently underperforms.

  8. #53
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    I'm most underwhelmed to be honest BP. What value are they adding for their fees of just over 1% per annum ?

    They have badly underperformed the MSCI emerging markets index in the last year and also materially underperformed over the last 3 years, five years and more recently over the last 3 months.

    I think the good fund managers they had at one stage left years ago. You might as well buy some ETF's mate.

    I don't own and won't buy a fund that consistently underperforms.

    Hi Roger,

    fair enough ... they didn't perform that flash over the last 5 years or so. On the other hand - if you look at the reasons why they underperformed the MSCI - a big part of that is as well some overallocation in commodities.

    Meaning - if we assume that commodities go further down the drain, than you are right. However, if we are around rock bottom, than now might be a good time to buy some overexposure in commodities.

    Anyway - hindsight always gives you 20/20. I would not have bought them when I did - if I knew at that stage where they are now, but one of the reason they are in my portfolio is as well as hedge ... their price is quite uncorrelated to NZ stocks - which might be a better attribute in times the NZX is underperforming (i.e. not now).
    ----
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  9. #54
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    I know where you are coming from BP and agree commodities must be somewhere near the bottom of the cycle, surely ?

    One huge disappointment we saw with the GFC was the way that so many of the markets got hammered together such that diversification strategies, at least in terms of diversifying stocks by country and region were rendered almost ineffective. I suspect we now live in such an interconnected world that diversification through this sort of avenue is perhaps not quite as effective as it once was but all the best with it mate.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #55
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Default Years later ...

    Sigh, I admit, there used to be a time when I thought that the emerging markets might long term beat ours. Well, maybe they do some time, but this may well be beyond my investment horizons.

    This is a 10 year comparison of the TEM Emerging Markets fund and the NZX50:

    TEM-NZX50.jpg

    NZX50 (up 270% - gross index) is the yellowish line at the top and TEM (up 50%, maybe 75% if I add the in avg 2% dividends paid) the blue ripple at the bottom

    The emerging markets suck ... well, at least this particular ETF.

    Discl: Sold out years ago ... but for some reason is this stock still on my watchlist. Thought this comparison might be of interest.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  11. #56
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    Nice comparison Black Peter...... There's no doubt NZX has done v well (and some would regard it as an Emerging Market!!)

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Nice comparison Black Peter...... There's no doubt NZX has done v well (and some would regard it as an Emerging Market!!)
    Actually perhaps when it comes to investment markets it is the opposite of an emerging market - a retreating market. The NZ share market is losing listings and the NZ sharemarket capitalisation as a percent of GDP is declining (or static) over the ong-term. NZ household investment is still geared to investing in land.https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/New...apitalization/
    Last edited by Bjauck; 17-06-2019 at 08:55 AM.

  13. #58
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    Surely the beauty of holding emerging markets is they add diversity and can be somewhat counter-cyclical to developed markets? No big deal if that part of your portfolio has been a little slow while the rest powers on.

    I also don't hold at the moment - I'm not very good at practising what I preach.

  14. #59
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    Thats certainly what the investment advisors recco, I think Craigs and maybe Brent Sheather had TEM as part of a diversified managed balanced portfolio. They were also taking management fees for this, natch.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thats certainly what the investment advisors recco, I think Craigs and maybe Brent Sheather had TEM as part of a diversified managed balanced portfolio. They were also taking management fees for this, natch.
    I brought these on Craigs recommendation 20? years ago.Sold them all 5 years later in disgust.They seem to be a continuous disapointment

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