Rum Jungle Resources (RUM) - Phosphate potential?

**h2so4** · 14-01-2011, 05:42 PM

Originally Posted by drillfix

H2,
I am not asking for Technicals on this, I am asking for Fundamentals.

Well maybe the seller got happy or went mad.

**shasta** · 14-01-2011, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by drillfix

Cheers HC

Has anybody actually run the ruler over this stock to do some comparison to any of its peers?

Would be good if somebody has and can sound off. Not used to these sort of companies and they seem hard to gauge, measure when there are only really few of them. Dont ya think?

RUM stacks up better than all the other plays on the ASX, but theres not too many to compare to!

**Huang Chung** · 14-01-2011, 08:34 PM

I would suggest you are looking at a very conservative 15 million tonnes within the 2.5 km x 1.5 km area recently drilled. Of course, the drilling has been light, so there is an assumption that the mineralisation persists throughout this area. But really, RUM have only scratched the surface here. I do like the way they quickly pegged other tenements that were likely to contain similar phosphate deposits (the phospate is located on what was the shoreline of an inland sea).

**trackers** · 17-01-2011, 09:59 AM

Originally Posted by drillfix

Guys, I am not much of a FA type guy, I guess I'm basically trying to understand why RUM is 30+c and POZ is now under 10c with only 100M shares issued yet RUM is up 3x that although be it, it seems that the grades for RUM are higher.

Here is an ann with some reading of JORC resource and grades yet I still cant figure why one
http://www.phosphateaustralia.com.au...er_Process.pdf

Also seems the stock is being sold off or a major holder exiting, as the past few days, for this stock, high volume of 1M+ shares are changing hands so any thoughts on this?

Hmmmm might look into these ones further, particularly POZ. 56Mt at 16% P2O5 for $10mil market cap. Top 20 own 60%.... Certainly is one sick looking chart

As far as Rum goes, looks like its a lot closer to transportation and the deposit could be a lot larger? Guess thats what it has (now) 4x the market cap of POZ.... Wonder which has bigger upside.

**trackers** · 17-01-2011, 10:27 AM

Just one more thing on POZ before I go back to minding my own business... HotC shows some pretty unhappy holders who will no doubt look to exit on any rise. Oswals (Burrup Fertilisers) have been recent sellers. Also, one of the problems seems to be that there are 4 geo's on the board....

And lastly, MD says that they're looking at revenue of about $US110 p/t for 3mil tonnes per year ($330mil revenue). Says that a decently slurry pipeline will (other than being expensive capex wise) be about $4 /pt to operate. So a highly profitable operation once its actually up and running. One thing though, phosphate prices have risen something like 60% to $600 p/tonne, so I wonder why the massive discrepancy there.

A JV with a big company that knows what they are doing could see some good times.....

**drillfix** · 17-01-2011, 03:57 PM

Thanks for your view there HC , Shasta and Trackers!

Hey trackers, yes a major holder selling out of POZ and I think there will be plenty upside once he is done which cant be too long as he only has about 5.x million left and after today that should be approx 4.x million left.

Will sure buy them under 10c though cause I would say by week ending there will be a move up, hence agree, plenty of upside here.

Comparisons between the RUM and POZ are slightly awkward to compare unless you only view the phosphate however a foot in both would be nice and pitty I missed this at 13c around, but ahh well.

**Huang Chung** · 17-01-2011, 09:06 PM

Took some off the table today, so I'm effectively free carried on the balance.

**gazprom1** · 17-01-2011, 09:19 PM

Originally Posted by trackers

Just one more thing on POZ before I go back to minding my own business... HotC shows some pretty unhappy holders who will no doubt look to exit on any rise. Oswals (Burrup Fertilisers) have been recent sellers. Also, one of the problems seems to be that there are 4 geo's on the board....

And lastly, MD says that they're looking at revenue of about $US110 p/t for 3mil tonnes per year ($330mil revenue). Says that a decently slurry pipeline will (other than being expensive capex wise) be about $4 /pt to operate. So a highly profitable operation once its actually up and running. One thing though, phosphate prices have risen something like 60% to $600 p/tonne, so I wonder why the massive discrepancy there.

A JV with a big company that knows what they are doing could see some good times.....

Hey Trackers,

Can you clarify one thing: you mention that phosphate prices have risen to something like $600p/t. I am not sure that is correct. Super phoshate is around NZ$300-340p/t. You might have been looking at urea which is current a touch over $700p/t but has been around $600p/t for most of last year. The "raw" phosphate they get of the ground has a much lower value - which is probably the $110 figure they mention for revenue.

You been making money?? Hope so!!!

Gaz