-
Well, besides the news today for PEK, the Volume spike today being over 10 x the normal volume was enough for me to dip my toes in.
As well as few issued shares as in only 80M + heads and 40M+ options there about.
Silver while there is carnage in the world cant be that bad of news surely?
Last edited by drillfix; 03-03-2011 at 03:45 AM.
-
 Originally Posted by KW
I predict tomorrow to be a good day for AYN. Why? It was mentioned on telly (Your Money Your Call on the Sky Business Channel, along with FML and ZRL) tonight, and the talking heads said it was going to 20c! So expect the Mums and Dads to pile on in - toot toot :-)
On a housekeeping note - can you put the share code in your comments so its clear what stock you are talking about, I'm having trouble following which one is currently under discussion. Ta.
AYN Thanks for that KW.May look to help out some Mums and Dads this afternoon should they get keen. VOC well done KW. I didn't follow this time.Trust it goes to $3 for you.
-
hopefully get my GRM fill today
How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle?
by Jeff Clark
The numbers for silver demand are starting to make some market-watchers nervous. The US Mint sold over 6.4 million silver Eagles in January, more than any other month since the coin's introduction in 1986. China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010, to 122.6 million ounces, roughly 13.7% of global production. Meanwhile, mine production can't meet worldwide demand; the only way demand gets fulfilled is from scrap supply.
That is some very hungry demand. Which raises the question, how long can this pace continue?
This question is important for various reasons, starting with how demand contributes to price. If demand falls off, silver investments would obviously suffer.
While I've discussed the concern regarding the lack of supply before, which has its own implications for the silver market, let's focus on investment demand. Frankly, is there room for it to continue to grow? After all, how long can investors continue to set records?
There are a number of ways to measure this - the amount of money available to invest, its percent of total financial assets, its contrast to demand in the last bull market, etc. - but I think the bottom line to answering the question is to compare the biggest silver investments to some popular equities. If they rival that of the stocks we always see on the news and analysts constantly talk about and every fund manager wants to own, then it might be reasonable to assume demand could be nearing its pinnacle.
So how do the world's largest silver ETF and one of the biggest silver producers compare to the more fashionable equities?
The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has net assets of $9.6 billion (as of February 4). This pales in comparison to the more popular stocks trading in the US. In fact, SLV has roughly 3% the market cap of Apple. It would have to grow over 43 times to match Exxon Mobil.
Pan American Silver, the largest pure silver producer trading on a major US exchange, has a market cap of $3.72 billion. This is 4.7% the size of McDonald's. The market cap would have to increase more than 53 times to match Wal-Mart. It is over 62 times smaller than Microsoft.
This isn't to suggest SLV and PAAS will match the market cap of these other companies, but clearly the masses are still demanding much more of them than the biggest of silver's investment vehicles.
So how much more demand can silver handle? As much as it takes to make it the household name I'm convinced it will be before this is all over. When SLV is a favorite of fund managers. When Silver Wheaton is a market darling of the masses. When Pan American is Wall Street's top pick for the year.
Imagine what those bars on the right will look like when most everyone you know is talking about poor man's gold. The rise could be breathtaking.
Remember that silver rose over 3,646% from trough to peak in the last precious metals bull market; it's up about 630% in our current run. A return matching the 1970s advance would push the price to $152. This price level is further supported by the fact that this is about where it would be when inflation-adjusted for its 1980 peak.
When you look at the potential growth in market cap of the world's biggest silver investments, it becomes easy to view any downdraft in price as nothing but a buying opportunity. I know I do.
Regards,
Jeff Clark
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
-
Originally Posted by KW
Re AYN: Or perhaps not ..... smart people may say that when its being promoted by housewives ringing in to a tv show, now is the time to sell LOL
Well I am still there with the Mums and Dads.
-
Originally Posted by drillfix
Nice one Shasta, will take a lookie to see whats going on here.
Shasta, done a gun slinger trade and just bought PEX, will review later, so why not, if you HC can do it, I will try it too :P
Oh dear JB, sometimes we find ourselves in reverse, but I am sure you have the capacity to rectify the situation or position.
On viewing PEX a little closer, i'm adding them to the low EV list, will start a thread in due course
You still holding Drilly?
-
Hi Shasta,
Yeah mate, still holding, though I never got my fill the first time when I took out what was left at 8.3c, somebody (many) came along and bought it up to 9c and same today so guess I will be happy with whatever I am holding now.
Had to swap a few shares between accounts because one is not highly funded so sold to myself on BMG :P
Will hold PEX of course until I see some signs of weakness and of course until I read some of your findings which I will look forward too~!
-
Well be happier now I got another good 350k of GRM at 6.3c offers now 37k 6.8c 166k 7.4c big gaps will will be jumped come late march on hopefully good shallow high grade silver results...
going put up a thread
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
-
Hey there JB,
Mate, a quick question if you dont mind.
Did you grab any PEX on their recent news or I see you like obtaining volume when you move into a stock.
If you never got any PEX is it because of the volume or because you only focus on one stock in this sector at a time?
Good to see you holding up the GRM ship, I may take a small position myself should funds permit.
-
Originally Posted by drillfix
Hey there JB,
Mate, a quick question if you dont mind.
Did you grab any PEX on their recent news or I see you like obtaining volume when you move into a stock.
If you never got any PEX is it because of the volume or because you only focus on one stock in this sector at a time?
Good to see you holding up the GRM ship, I may take a small position myself should funds permit.
No never looked into PEX most my free time today was focused on GRM and getting averaged down ( now 7c) before they annouce their Espiritu Santo drill results
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
-
Originally Posted by JBmurc
No never looked into PEX most my free time today was focused on GRM and getting averaged down ( now 7c) before they annouce their Espiritu Santo drill results
No worries there JB, if you get a chance take a look at the recent PEX announcement made yesterday regarding a new silver project.
To my untrained silver eye, it looks good, but dont know the quality of management and story behind any previous successes.
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks